Opinion of Nate Silver

[Joshgreen]

You know the drill

[ElectionsGuy]

FF

[Lief 🗽]

He's become increasing arrogant and full of himself, and his political analysis really isn't that amazing. It's actually kind of bad when he does anything that doesn't involve averaging polls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Massive FF of course, though I pretty disappointed with his new 538 format.

[H. Ross Peron]

Huge FF

[Oldiesfreak1854]

HP.  He may have gotten it right in 2012, but he was constantly predicting that Obama had an 80% chance of reelection.  Of course, Obama did win, but his chances were never THAT high.  And what's worse is that almost everyone (especially here) takes his predictions as gospel.

[TDAS04]

FF.

[Franzl]

HP.  He may have gotten it right in 2012, but he was constantly predicting that Obama had an 80% chance of reelection.  Of course, Obama did win, but his chances were never THAT high.  And what's worse is that almost everyone (especially here) takes his predictions as gospel.

I tend to take his mathematical analysis more seriously that the opinion of a hack such as yourself.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Massive FF of course, though I pretty disappointed with his new 538 format.

You realize that sport has always been his passion, right? Politics was the side project for him.

[Oakvale]

HP.  He may have gotten it right in 2012, but he was constantly predicting that Obama had an 80% chance of reelection.  Of course, Obama did win, but his chances were never THAT high.  And what's worse is that almost everyone (especially here) takes his predictions as gospel.

You do not understand how things work.

[Miles]

HP.  He may have gotten it right in 2012, but he was constantly predicting that Obama had an 80% chance of reelection.  Of course, Obama did win, but his chances were never THAT high.  And what's worse is that almost everyone (especially here) takes his predictions as gospel.

You should see what the national Republican operatives on Twitter have been saying recently

[Morning in Atlas]

HP.  He may have gotten it right in 2012, but he was constantly predicting that Obama had an 80% chance of reelection.  Of course, Obama did win, but his chances were never THAT high.  And what's worse is that almost everyone (especially here) takes his predictions as gospel.

You really are completely detached from reality, aren't you?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The best statistician....ever. in the history of the world. An absolute genius on the level of Einstein.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

HP.  He may have gotten it right in 2012, but he was constantly predicting that Obama had an 80% chance of reelection.  Of course, Obama did win, but his chances were never THAT high.  And what's worse is that almost everyone (especially here) takes his predictions as gospel.

Nevermind that Obama did mathematically have that good a chance (actually, for much of the campaign it was higher), Oldies just feels like it was never that high, so... yea... numbers n' stuff can't compare to good ol' GOP intuition. 

^ is there a better microcosm of the modern Republican than this drivel from Oldies?

[Maxwell]

The thing is Oldies is a liberal (I mean, he retook the PM and got negative scores in both S and E), but it seems like he gets warmy fuzzies from being a Republican.

[IceSpear]

^ is there a better microcosm of the modern Republican than this drivel from Oldies?

Yes

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

^ is there a better microcosm of the modern Republican than this drivel from Oldies?

Yes

That just proves my point.  There is no "white slavery", but Mr. Redneck feels like there is, so there must be.

The GOP just doesn't feel like a fast food worker should get $10 an hour.
The GOP just doesn't feel like socialized medicine can work.
The GOP just doesn't feel like food stamps aren't being abused.

No numbers, facts, statistics, etc.  Just feels.  All feels. 

[Deus Naturae]

^ is there a better microcosm of the modern Republican than this drivel from Oldies?

Yes

That just proves my point.  There is no "white slavery", but Mr. Redneck feels like there is, so there must be.

The GOP just doesn't feel like a fast food worker should get $10 an hour.
The GOP just doesn't feel like socialized medicine can work.
The GOP just doesn't feel like food stamps aren't being abused.

No numbers, facts, statistics, etc.  Just feels.  All feels. 

You could just as easily replace "GOP" with "Democrats" and then change each of those statements to their opposites...

Anyway, FF.

[SWE]

^ is there a better microcosm of the modern Republican than this drivel from Oldies?

Yes

That just proves my point.  There is no "white slavery", but Mr. Redneck feels like there is, so there must be.

The GOP just doesn't feel like a fast food worker should get $10 an hour.
The GOP just doesn't feel like socialized medicine can work.
The GOP just doesn't feel like food stamps aren't being abused.

No numbers, facts, statistics, etc.  Just feels.  All feels. 

You could just as easily replace "GOP" with "Democrats" and then change each of those statements to their opposites...

Anyway, FF.

I don't feel like you could

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

^ is there a better microcosm of the modern Republican than this drivel from Oldies?

Yes

That just proves my point.  There is no "white slavery", but Mr. Redneck feels like there is, so there must be.

The GOP just doesn't feel like a fast food worker should get $10 an hour.
The GOP just doesn't feel like socialized medicine can work.
The GOP just doesn't feel like food stamps aren't being abused.

No numbers, facts, statistics, etc.  Just feels.  All feels. 

You could just as easily replace "GOP" with "Democrats" and then change each of those statements to their opposites...

Anyway, FF.

I don't feel like you could

Oh ho!  Nice.

But no, it wouldn't work.  Democrats had reasons for pushing Obamacare.  Real reasons.  Things that are tangible and measurable.  Democrats use real statistics to calculate what the living wage should be. 

No surprise that the party of religion doesn't think critically, but rather relies endlessly on the same archaic bull**** principles and ideas. 

[7,052,770]

HP.  He may have gotten it right in 2012, but he was constantly predicting that Obama had an 80% chance of reelection.  Of course, Obama did win, but his chances were never THAT high.  And what's worse is that almost everyone (especially here) takes his predictions as gospel.

[CITATION NEEDED]

[Indy Texas]

^ is there a better microcosm of the modern Republican than this drivel from Oldies?

Yes

Perhaps that man is unaware that "white slavery" has historically been used as a euphemism for prostitution. Is Obama planning on legalizing prostitution? Or are his job-killing policies going to force all of us to start putting out so we can put food on the table?

[Cassius]

Massive HP for giving a boost to the lamentable process of knowing what the election result will be down to a very narrow margin of error.

[LeBron]

HP. It's bad enough that he's practically giving up on political blogs to talk about sports more often, but putting little thought and effort into his political articles and predicting now that Republicans will control the Senate after 2014 (taking 6-11 seats) draws the line. I can give him the benefit of the doubt in saying that AR, WV, SD and maybe MT are long-shots and are pretty much guaranteed to go into the Republican column, but he fails to recognize in states like NC, LA, and MI where there are terrible Republican candidates who will likely arise from the primary and we still don't know enough about what the national climate will look like to be predicting all of these races 7 months out of the blue like this.

Keep in mind to, he predicted in August 2012 that Republicans would pick up control of the Senate with losses of candidates like Heitkamp and Tester (they didn't) and predicted Republican Senate control in 2010 to with the losses of Reid and Bennet (they didn't either). Even worse, he thought Heitkamp had an 8% chance of winning and Reid a 16% chance. So besides his perfect 2012 Presidential election prediction, I don't consider him much of a reliable source anymore.

Republicans only have about 4 seats in lock right now (AR, WV, SD, and MT), but even one or two of those could be subject to change with one possible Democratic gain in KY or GA, so Republicans will no doubt pick up a net gain of Senate seats, but not enough for a majority.

[WalterMitty]

he considers himself a statistician.  how does that work?  his degree is in economics, if im not mistaken.