Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia

[ag]

I think their just f[inks]ing with us

And they feel you will not do sh**t about it.

[ag]

I think their just f[inks]ing with us

Despite all of the sabre rattling, everyone knows that while far-away and unimportant countries like Ukraine are subject to anything, NATO members are sacrosanct.

And what is the source of that knowledge?

[ag]

what's the problem with allowing them to move to the old Warsaw Pact boundaries?  exempting the GDR if you insist.

Why not let them settle Manhattan then?

[ag]

So what if Russia invades Estonia? Is the U.S. really going to war against a country with 5,000 ICBMs over Estonia? Most likely it'll expose NATO as an empty piece of paper.

So, where would it stop? Warsaw? Berlin? London?

[ag]

Anyways, what most of you, guys, are missing, is that Russia is emerging - internally, not so much externally - as a proper hysterical fascist dictatorship. The regime is whipping hatred - and for that it is going to need conflicts. Today it was Crimea - it will not be the last.

So far, there has been precious little reaction to what Russia did. Yes, today´s sanctions are a slight improvement (they did name some of the Great Leader´s buddies). But this is far too little, far too late. And, in fact, from now on these same buddies will be even more loyal - they no longer have anything that does not directly depend on the guy. As for the still surviving opposition - state media (and increasingly this is the only media out there) is openly using the word "traitors". Prison terms are only starting - but there will be more. And the nationalist hysteria makes prison a popular means of treating the opposition.

So, it is all around success for the Leader - he will want to repeat. Relying on the never properly tested (at least recently) Article 5 is all nice and good - till he decides to test. Estonians have every right to be worried.

So, suppose in a year or two Russia takes over Narva (oh, yes, at first there will be a lot of happy people there as well - the town is 95% ethnic Russian). Will the US risk a war with 5000 warheads over a smallish town in a country 1/30 the size of Ukraine? Once the NATO partners cancel Russia´s participation in G-20 and force Mr. Abramovich to sell Chelsea FC and declare that in this way they fulfilled obligations under Article 5, once the brave Estonian border guards move their post towards Kohtla Jarve (to be taken over the following month), what is it that our Polish friends will do? Say they are different because... What? This is what I would like to hear.

[ag]

If Russian Maidan happens, Putin's done.

Unlike Ukrainian Maidan, Russian Maidan won't be supported by half of the population and overwhelming majority of capital's inhabitants, and probably that difference will be crucial. 2011-2012 protests led to almost nothing.

You are most certainly right: as long as oil and gas prices are what they are

[ag]

If Russia invades Estonia the West will have to make a stand. Nobody really cares about Crimea but Putin should not go too far. And he probably knows this.

Are you certain he does know it? Are you certain YOU do know it?

[ag]

The US would not go to war over Estonia but it has nothing to do with nuclear weapons. It just wouldn't be worth the death from a conventional ground war. Additionally Estonia would be kind of responsible for bringing it on themselves via terrible policies.

As to nuclear weapons, we spend too much time discussing them. Nuclear weapons do not deter military action at all. If Ukraine had kept their nukes, Russia would still have taken Crimea. The only thing nukes do is deter other people from using their own nukes.

A desperate Ukrainian government could have done something rash and stupid. True, it would have been blamed - but Putin (and the rest of Moscow population) would not be able to enjoy hearing about that. Even if the probability of pressing the button was 1%, it would have been enough to make even Putin nervous.  And, of course, if Putin were to go beyond Crimea the probability of the button being pressed would be a lot higher.

Indeed, if nukes do not deter military action, then why wouldn't the West react to Crimean occupation by sending its own troops there (on invitation of Ukrainian government, of course). On March 1st that could have been done without much conventional response. Push comes to shove, it would have been enough to bomb the hell out of the bases of the "unidentified" soldiers - loyal Ukrainian troops would have done the rest. Why wasn't it done?