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  Talk Elections
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  International General Discussion (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia
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Author Topic: Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia  (Read 3847 times)
politicus
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« Reply #25 on: March 21, 2014, 07:30:11 am »

So what if Russia invades Estonia? Is the U.S. really going to war against a country with 5,000 ICBMs over Estonia? Most likely it'll expose NATO as an empty piece of paper.

You are dead wrong on this. See the Churchill quote in my sig.
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Earthling
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« Reply #26 on: March 21, 2014, 08:08:03 am »

If Russia invades Estonia the West will have to make a stand. Nobody really cares about Crimea but Putin should not go too far. And he probably knows this.
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #27 on: March 21, 2014, 10:20:27 am »

If Russia invades Estonia the West will have to make a stand. Nobody really cares about Crimea but Putin should not go too far. And he probably knows this.

If Putin wants to start WWIII, he can. Only time will tell if that's his desire.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #28 on: March 21, 2014, 11:46:23 am »

what's the problem with allowing them to move to the old Warsaw Pact boundaries?  exempting the GDR if you insist.

Why not let them settle Manhattan then?

He would prefer it if they did, if you see.

anyway, this is a total lie.  I have no interest either way in Russian territorial claims.  it does bear remembering that Gorbachev was promised that NATO would not expand to the east.  we can just as easily use ag's "where does it stop?" logic in reverse... first it was East Germany, then Poland and the Czechs, then Romania, when will they come to Petersburg and Moscow? imperial powers will always use these paranoiac justifications for why they can't give an inch, with varying degrees of legitimacy.
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Old Europe
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« Reply #29 on: March 21, 2014, 11:53:25 am »

what's the problem with allowing them to move to the old Warsaw Pact boundaries?  exempting the GDR if you insist.

That's very generous of you. Thank you!
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Earthling
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« Reply #30 on: March 21, 2014, 01:03:31 pm »

If Russia invades Estonia the West will have to make a stand. Nobody really cares about Crimea but Putin should not go too far. And he probably knows this.

If Putin wants to start WWIII, he can. Only time will tell if that's his desire.

Of course he can if he wants to. So can Obama.

But I don't think he wants to start WW III. He is not stupid. He knows that nobody really cares about Crimea.
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Zuza
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« Reply #31 on: March 21, 2014, 02:52:07 pm »

Unlike Ukrainian Maidan, Russian Maidan won't be supported by half of the population and overwhelming majority of capital's inhabitants, and probably that difference will be crucial. 2011-2012 protests led to almost nothing.
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ag
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« Reply #32 on: March 21, 2014, 07:22:47 pm »

Unlike Ukrainian Maidan, Russian Maidan won't be supported by half of the population and overwhelming majority of capital's inhabitants, and probably that difference will be crucial. 2011-2012 protests led to almost nothing.

You are most certainly right: as long as oil and gas prices are what they are Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #33 on: March 21, 2014, 07:23:38 pm »

If Russia invades Estonia the West will have to make a stand. Nobody really cares about Crimea but Putin should not go too far. And he probably knows this.

Are you certain he does know it? Are you certain YOU do know it?
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dead0man
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« Reply #34 on: March 22, 2014, 08:48:04 am »

So what if Russia invades Estonia? Is the U.S. really going to war against a country with 5,000 ICBMs over Estonia?
Yes, there is no doubt in my mind.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #35 on: March 22, 2014, 10:19:46 am »

The US would not go to war over Estonia but it has nothing to do with nuclear weapons. It just wouldn't be worth the death from a conventional ground war. Additionally Estonia would be kind of responsible for bringing it on themselves via terrible policies.

As to nuclear weapons, we spend too much time discussing them. Nuclear weapons do not deter military action at all. If Ukraine had kept their nukes, Russia would still have taken Crimea. The only thing nukes do is deter other people from using their own nukes.
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politicus
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« Reply #36 on: March 22, 2014, 12:05:57 pm »

The US would not go to war over Estonia but it has nothing to do with nuclear weapons. It just wouldn't be worth the death from a conventional ground war. Additionally Estonia would be kind of responsible for bringing it on themselves via terrible policies.

As to nuclear weapons, we spend too much time discussing them. Nuclear weapons do not deter military action at all. If Ukraine had kept their nukes, Russia would still have taken Crimea. The only thing nukes do is deter other people from using their own nukes.

1. Allowing a Russian occupation of parts of Estonia would jeopardize the credibility of NATO and all your other military alliances. The size and economic importance of Estonia doesnt matter in this context.

2. Do you have even a shred of evidence to back up that claim?
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True Federalist
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« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2014, 12:51:10 pm »

As to nuclear weapons, we spend too much time discussing them. Nuclear weapons do not deter military action at all. If Ukraine had kept their nukes, Russia would still have taken Crimea. The only thing nukes do is deter other people from using their own nukes.
Do you have even a shred of evidence to back up that claim?

There's the Sino-Soviet border conflict of 1969 plus the Yom Kippur War.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #38 on: March 22, 2014, 02:54:22 pm »
« Edited: March 22, 2014, 02:59:12 pm by WillipsBrighton »

The US would not go to war over Estonia but it has nothing to do with nuclear weapons. It just wouldn't be worth the death from a conventional ground war. Additionally Estonia would be kind of responsible for bringing it on themselves via terrible policies.

As to nuclear weapons, we spend too much time discussing them. Nuclear weapons do not deter military action at all. If Ukraine had kept their nukes, Russia would still have taken Crimea. The only thing nukes do is deter other people from using their own nukes.

1. Allowing a Russian occupation of parts of Estonia would jeopardize the credibility of NATO and all your other military alliances. The size and economic importance of Estonia doesnt matter in this context.

2. Do you have even a shred of evidence to back up that claim?

So you really think if Russia had taken Crimea and then Ukraine nuked Moscow, public opinion would side with Ukraine? No, it would still be condemned by almost everyone as disproportionate and a crime against humanity. That's why Ukraine would never have even considered it. Moscow knows this and that's why it wouldn't have deterred them. They know the West in general is too civilized to ever use nuclear weapons first. They can do anything they want short of nuking people and not worry about getting nuked. The only thing they have to worry about is provoking a ground war and we're not going to start one over Estonia.

Maybe if France got attacked we would go to war but that's not even realistic worst case scenario.
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Franzl
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« Reply #39 on: March 22, 2014, 07:15:25 pm »

They know the West in general is too civilized to ever use nuclear weapons first. scenario.

Not commenting on whether it was the right or wrong thing to do....but ever heard of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
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ag
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« Reply #40 on: March 22, 2014, 10:04:36 pm »

The US would not go to war over Estonia but it has nothing to do with nuclear weapons. It just wouldn't be worth the death from a conventional ground war. Additionally Estonia would be kind of responsible for bringing it on themselves via terrible policies.

As to nuclear weapons, we spend too much time discussing them. Nuclear weapons do not deter military action at all. If Ukraine had kept their nukes, Russia would still have taken Crimea. The only thing nukes do is deter other people from using their own nukes.

A desperate Ukrainian government could have done something rash and stupid. True, it would have been blamed - but Putin (and the rest of Moscow population) would not be able to enjoy hearing about that. Even if the probability of pressing the button was 1%, it would have been enough to make even Putin nervous.  And, of course, if Putin were to go beyond Crimea the probability of the button being pressed would be a lot higher.

Indeed, if nukes do not deter military action, then why wouldn't the West react to Crimean occupation by sending its own troops there (on invitation of Ukrainian government, of course). On March 1st that could have been done without much conventional response. Push comes to shove, it would have been enough to bomb the hell out of the bases of the "unidentified" soldiers - loyal Ukrainian troops would have done the rest. Why wasn't it done?
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ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #41 on: March 22, 2014, 11:57:05 pm »

They know the West in general is too civilized to ever use nuclear weapons first. scenario.

Not commenting on whether it was the right or wrong thing to do....but ever heard of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
The dynamic of foreign relations and nuclear weapons were quite a bit different in 1945 than they were in 1985. I donít necessarily think it is accurate to judge the Cold War with World War II era actions as a standard.

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Old Europe
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« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2014, 07:03:51 am »
« Edited: March 23, 2014, 07:14:52 am by Strategos Autokrator »

The US would not go to war over Estonia...

Aside form the fact that it would immediately render NATO meaningless - which in itself would constitute one of most significant paradigm shifts in international politics and the balance of power since the end of WWII - it would also completely obliterate the credibility of American foreign policy for the next 50 years or so. Why would anyone ever see an advantage in entering a military alliance with the US again?

I'm so bold to say that such an event would be identified by future historians as the turning point at which the United States ceased to be a superpower (and perhaps a great power too) and the "Asian Century" began.

All of this is purely academic though. Exactly for the reasons I just mentioned, the United States would of course go to war over Estonia. (And as long as Putin is convinced that the U.S. would, he probably won't touch Estonia.)
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shua
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« Reply #43 on: March 23, 2014, 09:34:08 am »

They know the West in general is too civilized to ever use nuclear weapons first. scenario.

Not commenting on whether it was the right or wrong thing to do....but ever heard of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
The dynamic of foreign relations and nuclear weapons were quite a bit different in 1945 than they were in 1985. I donít necessarily think it is accurate to judge the Cold War with World War II era actions as a standard.



True. But that doesn't have anything to do with who is "civilized."  It has to do with nuclear proliferation and the fact that the leaders of US and Europe don't have a death wish.  And neither I believe does Putin.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #44 on: March 24, 2014, 02:35:23 pm »

what's the problem with allowing them to move to the old Warsaw Pact boundaries?  exempting the GDR if you insist.

Why not let them settle Manhattan then?

He would prefer it if they did, if you see.

anyway, this is a total lie.  I have no interest either way in Russian territorial claims.  it does bear remembering that Gorbachev was promised that NATO would not expand to the east.  we can just as easily use ag's "where does it stop?" logic in reverse... first it was East Germany, then Poland and the Czechs, then Romania, when will they come to Petersburg and Moscow? imperial powers will always use these paranoiac justifications for why they can't give an inch, with varying degrees of legitimacy.

Gorbachev says he was promised. Not the same thing.
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