Walker wins because the inner city Milwaukee demographic won't show up for this race. Burke is already lying in her campaign adds and being called out by neutral organizations on it. Depressed Milwaukee Dem voters will get Walker the election. And then I suspect recall part 2?
Oh goodness if this were to happen 
I live in neighboring IL. The Sink election shows that young people are depressed, not necessarily all minorities. Hopefully BlK turnout in Madison and MKE gives Burke the key to victory.
Madison is 7.3% black. I don't think black turnout in Madison is going to be the key to anything on the statewide level.
There won't be another recall, I think everyone realizes that was a disaster. Also turnout in Milwaukee County, Dane County and the WOW counties won't be where the election will be won or lost. Both hyper-partisan sides with be very energized to defeat/defend Walker. The race will be won in the other areas of the state. Burke needs to win the Driftless Area in the Southwest and she needs to keep the margins small in the northern part of the state. She needs to hope for a map that looks close to what Baldiwn got in 2012. I am still projecting a 51-47 Walker win.
