Warrick County Clerk Discovers 3,791 Uncounted Ballots

[ElectionAtlas]

The Warrick County, Indiana Clerk has recently announced a discovery that 3,791 early ballots cast in the 2012 General Election were left uncounted in the official results published. 

An analysis of the normalized turnout of the county (subtracting the statewide turnout vs. registered voters from the county turnout vs. registered voters) shows the following data:

Year	Reg	County	State	Difference
2012	49,971	49.4%	57.7%	-8.3%
2008	46,718	61.5%	61.1%	0.4%
2004	43,329	60.1%	57.4%	2.7%
2000	39,016	57.2%	55.1%	2.1%
1996	31,582	66.8%	61.2%	5.6%
1992	27,539	74.9%	72.5%	2.4%
1988	23,725	78.2%	75.7%	2.5%
1984	22,701	73.3%	73.2%	0.1%
1980	20,629	80.3%	76.1%	4.2%

The mean from 1980-2008 is 2.5 with the standard deviation of 1.69.  the -8.3 is 6.4 standard deviations from the mean.  Very likely an error in total votes recorded in Warrick.

[Mechaman]

Looking at the Election Results on this website:

Definitely looks like this wouldn'tve helped Obama or John Gregg.  Donnelly beat Moreduck by almost 150,000 votes so it wouldn't even benefit the Republicans.  Congressional Results seem to verify no adverse outcome either:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_8th_congressional_district

So yes, in this case as the article says that the votes didn't seem to have that much of an effect on the race.  However, it should still be alarming that votes would go undiscovered for this long.  I mean, what if somebody finds those missing Nixon votes in Aurora?  Our timeline could be in jeopardy!

[Nichlemn]

I suspect that if there had been a razor-thin race, there would been a lot more effort to search for things like this.

[Хahar 🤔]

Will these results be retroactively be added to the total?

[ElectionAtlas]

I have been sent the new report post-audit from Warrick County and the results have been modified on the atlas.

Enjoy,
Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I suspect that if there had been a razor-thin race, there would been a lot more effort to search for things like this.

Sometimes they make a mistake election night but then fix it soon afterwards.

The 2000 race had two notable election night mistakes.
Gore was given -16,022 votes in a precinct, which caused Florida to mistakenly be called for Bush.
Gore was given 500 too few votes in New Mexico, which had Bush leading it election night.