A fair assumption

[Gustaf]

The key point to make is that Clinton was a Southerner. And a moderate. Now, a Southern Democrat who isn't a raging liberal will do well in the South, still (or at least would still by the mid-90s). Perot didn't do that well in the SOuth, so it isn't an effect of him so much either.

Gore was not a Southern candidate the way CLinton was. You can say what you want about Clinton, but he WAS Southern, he had it in his blood in a way Gore never did. That is most of it. Secondly, Bush is a Southerner in way that Dole or his father certainly wasn't. I think that if Giuliani would run against a real Southern Democrat in 2008 several Southern states could swing back.

[Gustaf]

Actually, you can see the anti-Democrat trend in the south as early as in Clinton's reelection. He lost Georgia which hasn't been close to going Democratic ever since. He also lost ground in Kentucky and Tennessee, despite increasing his nation-wide margin.