AZ-PPP: Hillary Clinton leads all, except Jeb Bush

[Tender Branson]

The Presidential race in Arizona in 2016 could be interesting as well. Hillary Clinton narrowly trails Jeb Bush (45/44), but leads Chris Christie (44/41), Rand Paul (46/43), and Mike Huckabee (47/41). Arizona could finally reach its long anticipated battleground status this cycle.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/mccain-least-popular-senator-in-country.html

[Tender Branson]

2 national polls just showed Clinton beating Bush by about 13-14 points.

AZ as a tossup makes sense with these national numbers.

(2012: Obama+4 nationally, but -9 in AZ)

[Tender Branson]

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already.

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

[Tender Branson]

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already.

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.

But I'm talking about a statewide trend, read my 2nd post ...

[Tender Branson]

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already.

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.

But I'm talking about a statewide trend, read my 2nd post ...

Disagree, as my poll of polls has Hillary "only" beating the generic Republican by 7.4%.

The problem with measuring the trend right now is that the national polls are all over the place: From Clinton+2 (PPP) to Clinton+30 (Marist).

Using the last national PPP poll, there would be a strong DEM trend in AZ, but using the latest FOX poll from yesterday, there would be no change relative to 2012 ...