AZ-PPP: Hillary Clinton leads all, except Jeb Bush

[eric82oslo]

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already.

[eric82oslo]

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already.

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.

But I'm talking about a statewide trend, read my 2nd post ...

Disagree, as my poll of polls has Hillary "only" beating the generic Republican by 7.4%.

[eric82oslo]

And finally it's happening. We have almost 3 years to go until election day, so the electoral demographics will still change A LOT in Arizona in the time remaining. Tons of Arizonians 15, 16 and 17 years old will be able to vote in 2016 who are not included in this poll. I'm getting excited already.

The poll actually shows no trend towards the Democrats ...

Actually it does. Clinton would beat Bush by 21 points among the youngest voters, but Bush would win by 11 among the oldest.

But I'm talking about a statewide trend, read my 2nd post ...

Disagree, as my poll of polls has Hillary "only" beating the generic Republican by 7.4%.

The problem with measuring the trend right now is that the national polls are all over the place: From Clinton+2 (PPP) to Clinton+30 (Marist).

Using the last national PPP poll, there would be a strong DEM trend in AZ, but using the latest FOX poll from yesterday, there would be no change relative to 2012 ...

Agree with that. My poll of polls show that Arizona has the 8th strongest swing (of 27 states measured) right now and 7th if we count only the Democratic tilt.

Now I wonder how the difference between Colorado and its neighbour Arizona can be so enormous? Colorado is swinging 9% towards generic GOP, while Arizona is swinging 8% towards Hillary. Lol. It's almost surreal.

[eric82oslo]

Arizona would probably be about the 35th-best state for Hillary Clinton. It's impossible to lose a Presidential election while winning 35 states (Obama got 34 in 2008) or even 30.

Obama got 30 in 2008 - 28 in 2012.

[eric82oslo]

Question:

Why is Hillary under-performing in Colorado and over-performing in Arizona?

The only explanation I have is that Coloradans is by far the most highly educated of the US states - and the US has never had a smarter, or at least more highly educated president, than Obama before. I'm pretty sure he's the first president ever to be a practically teaching professor in constitutional law. I mean, professionally you can't get any smarter than that - at least not within the US.

When it comes to Arizona, I guess it's a mixture of changing demographics and a very, very strong anti GOP backlash which they did not feel at all in 2008 and 2012 due to McCain being the aliviator in that one state but in none of the remaining 49.