No on 22

[DKrol]

I like the way you do your elections. Reminds me of how I did them in the early portions of Camelot Rises.

[NHI]

I like the way you do your elections. Reminds me of how I did them in the early portions of Camelot Rises.

Thanks!

[NHI]

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 68 (52.9%)

(D) Al Gore: 3 (43.6%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.7%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.5%)

"Virginia has gone for Mrs. Hutchison." -- Dan Rather

West Virginia: Too Close to Call

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 52.9%

Al Gore: 45.8%

Florida: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 49.0%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 47.5%

Ralph Nader: 2.4%

"We do have a major projection to make in the state of Florida. It goes for Gore. Gore wins Florida. This is quite an important victory. The sunshine state goes for Vice President Gore. Senator Hutchison swept through the south like a tornado in trailer park, but Florida the big state has gone for the Vice President. A key and significant win." -- Dan Rather

Florida:

√ Al Gore: 49.1%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 47.4%

Ralph Nader: 2.4%

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 68 (51.7%)

(D) Al Gore: 28 (44.9%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.7%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.4%)

"Now moving to the eight o'clock closings and we have a series of new states to call. Vice President Al Gore is the winner in the following States:

Connecticut:

√ Al Gore: 55.2%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 39.4%

Ralph Nader: 4.4%

Delaware:

√ Al Gore: 55.0%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 41.9%

Ralph Nader: 1.5%

DC:

√ Al Gore: 85.1%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 8.9%

Ralph Nader: 5.2%

Maryland:

√ Al Gore: 56.5%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 40.1%

Ralph Nader: 2.6%

Massachusetts:

√ Al Gore: 59.8%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 32.5%

Ralph Nader: 6.4%

New Jersey:

√ Al Gore: 56.1%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 40.2%

Ralph Nader: 3.0%

Illinois:

√ Al Gore: 54.6%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 43.9%

Alabama:

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 56.5%

Al Gore: 41.9%

Mississippi:

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 57.6%

Al Gore: 40.7%

Oklahoma:

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 60.3%

Al Gore: 38.7%

Kansas:

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 58.0%

Al Gore: 37.2%

Ralph Nader: 3.3%

Texas:

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 59.3%

Al Gore: 37.9%

Tennessee: Too Close to Call

Maine: Too Close to Call

Missouri: Too Close to Call

Pennsylvania: Too Close to Call

New Hampshire: Too Close to Call

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 130 (50.9%)

(D) Al Gore: 101 (46.6%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.7%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.5%)

"There is the map at this time. Still a narrow lead for Senator Hutchison, but many of the big states have yet to be called. This is still an open race. No game, set, match, just yet folks. Though as we look at the South, especially from four years ago it quite a reversal when Bill Clinton practically swept it against Former Speaker Gingrich." -- Dan Rather

"We now turn to Bob Schieffer for some more analysis." -- Dan Rather

"Dan, this election is not over yet, but looking at the big ticket states like Pennsylvania Gore is doing very well in the suburbs and with the key groups. Looking at Florida for example, he's doing better with Hispanics than Bill Clinton did in 1996, so this bodes well for him going forward." -- Bob Schieffer

"We do have a big projection to make at this point in Pennsylvania. The Keystone state goes to Al Gore. it continues it Democratic Trend tonight." -- Dan Rather.

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 130 (50.7%)

(D) Al Gore: 124 (46.9%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.7%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.5%)

"Turning back to the projection: We are now calling Maine for Al Gore and giving three out of the four delegates." -- Dan Rather

Maine:

√ Al Gore: 50.3%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 45.0%

Ralph Nader: 3.4%

"Looking at the battleground of West Virginia. We are now projecting it for Senator Hutchison." -- Dan Rather

West Virginia

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 51.9%

Al Gore: 45.6%

Ralph Nader: 1.7%

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 135 (50.8%)

(D) Al Gore: 127 (47.0%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.6%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.3%)

[TX Conservative Dem]

We have breaking news: Florida has been called for Senator Hutchinson.

[NHI]

(D) Al Gore: 182 (47.7%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 158 (49.1%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.4%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.3%)

"Seventeen minutes after the hour and Vice President Gore continues to hold onto his lead but with some states still left to call. Ones that we are focusing on are Ohio, Missouri, The Vice President's home state of Tennessee. It is close, but there has to be a sense of good feeling in the Vice President's camp tonight." -- Dan Rather.

Ohio: Too Close to Call

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 49.4%

Al Gore: 48.6%

Ralph Nader: 1.0%

Arkansas: Too Close to Call

Kay Bailey Hutchison 51.7%

Al Gore: 47.9%

Tennessee: Too Close to Call

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 50.9%

Al Gore: 47.8%

New Hampshire: Too Close to Call

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 48.7%

Al Gore: 46.9%

Ralph Nader: 3.3%

Wisconsin: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.8%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 48.1%

Minnesota: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.9%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 47.7%

Colorado: Too Close to Call

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 52.2%

Al Gore: 45.6%

New Mexico: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.0%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 45.4%

Ralph Nader: 2.8%

Tennessee

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 51%

Al Gore: 48%

"We can now project Tennessee, the home state of Al Gore to be won by Senator Hutchison. A significant win, an important win. We'll see what this does." -- Dan Rather.

(D) Al Gore: 182 (48.0%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 169 (49.3%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.4%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.3%)

"Certainly turn down the lights, this party just got wilder, we have a major projection; the state of Arkansas, Bill Clinton's home state where he was Governor for Twelve years will go for Senator Hutchison. A setback for Al Gore, who thought he could, could compete there. It is gone now and so to does it look like the South for Al Gore. Missouri remains undecided; a last stand, a firewall for the Vice President in this region." -- Dan Rather

(D) Al Gore: 182 (48.0%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 175 (49.3%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.4%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.3%)

"This remains a close race. A narrow race, so tight it's spandex tight. Now Al Gore has won Florida, an important state a bi state, but he hasn't gone over the top yet. It is a not over yet, no signs of victory in Austin or in Nashville just yet tonight folks." -- Dan Rather

"Some relief now for the Democrats. Minnesota, Minnesota, the one state Walter Mondale carried in 1984, a strong Democratic hold goes for the Vice President tonight." -- Dan Rather

Minnesota: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 51%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 48%

"Another projection now...this time in New Hampshire. New Hampshire, the Granite State is solid as a rock for Hutchison tonight. It goes for the Republican."

(D) Al Gore: 192 (48.4%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 179 (49.2%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.4%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.3%)

"Coming up at ten o'clock now some more projections to make. Idaho, Montana and Utah goes for Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Strong Republican states so no shockers here. Frankly it would be a shocker if they didn't vote Republicans....and here is the map and this race is shakier than a cup of jello on a hot summer day in July. One delegate separates the two candidates now. A close race folks, one for the ages." -- Dan Rather

(D) Al Gore: 192 (48.5%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 191 (49.3%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.3%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.3%)

Nevada: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 49.0%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 47.0%

Ralph Nader: 2.4%

Iowa: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.0%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 46.9%

Ralph Nader: 2.4%

[NHI]

"Al Gore Back on the map again, this time he wins New Mexico. Another state for the Vice President, but our eyes are focused like a laser beam on the remaining big ticket states."" -- Dan Rather

New Mexico:

√ Al Gore: 49.9%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 48.4%

(D) Al Gore: 197 (48.8%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 191 (49.2%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.3%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.3%)

"We are turning to now, First Lady Hillary Clinton, now Senator-Elect Hillary Clinton. In New York; she wins the election for the seat. We're now turning to her victory speech." -- Dan Rather

√ (D) Hillary Clinton: 55.3%

(R) Rick Lazio: 43.0%

"We are now projecting the state of Missouri for Senator Hutchison. Missouri, another state gone for Al Gore." -- Dan Rather

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 202 (49.3%)

(D) Al Gore: 197 (48.8%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.2%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.3%)

"Adding to her tally we are now projecting Colorado in the Kay Bailey Hutchison column. Colorado, once again returning to the Republican column tonight." -- Dan Rather

Colorado:

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 50.7%

Al Gore: 42.4%

Ralph Nader: 5.6%

"Ralph Nader certainly taking away some votes there; which now brings us to the subject of Mr. Nader and his Green Party candidacy tonight. Many thought he might be a spoiler in Florida, appears he wasn't, but looking at a state in Colorado, a big chip away from Al Gore tonight. When four years ago, even in a three man race, Ross Perot a somewhat bigger factor, Bill Clinton took Colorado from Newt Gingrich and quite decisively." -- Dan Rather

Colorado: 1996

√ Bill Clinton: 52.7%

Newt Gingrich: 45.7%

Ross Perot: 1.6%

"Another projection to make at this hour at 10:25, Ohio goes for Hutchison. Senator Hutchison wins Ohio. An all important battleground state, the Buckeye State is won by Kay Bailey Hutchison tonight." -- Dan Rather.

Ohio:

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 49.8%

Al Gore: 47.8%

Ralph Nader: 1.4%

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 231 (49.4%)

(D) Al Gore: 197 (48.7%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.4%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.2%)

"There are images from the Hutchison-McCain Headquarters in Austin, Texas tonight. The crowd is obviously very happy, because they know the significance of Ohio. No person has been elected President since 1960, without carrying the state of Ohio and Senator Huchison wins it tonight." -- Dan Rather

"Maine CD 2 is now projected for Al Gore." -- Dan Rather

Maine CD 2:

√ Al Gore: 49.7%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 47.5%

Ralph Nader: 2.6%

Wisconsin: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 49.0%

Kay Bailey Huthchison: 48.9%

Ralph Nader: 1.7%

Iowa: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 49.0%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 49.0%

Ralph Nader: 1.7%

"We can now project Arizona for Senator Hutchison. The home state of her running mate John McCain. Arizona goes for Hutchison." -- Dan Rather

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 239 (49.3%)

(D) Al Gore: 198 (48.8%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.4%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.2%)

[NHI]

"Just past eleven o'clock here on the east coast and California has gone for Gore, Hawaii has gone for Gore. This changes the dynamics of the race considerably. Before the hour many thought it was time to bring in the smelling salts for the Democrats, having lost Ohio, but California puts them back into the game. Senator Hutchison thought, thought she could reclaim the state, but it remains in the Democratic column.

Washington and Oregon remain too close to call, so there is a ray of light for the Republican camp tonight. Taking one of those states and they're back in the game." -- Dan Rather

(D) Al Gore: 256 (48.9%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 239 (49.0%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.5%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.1%)

"We do have a major projection to make for in the Nevada race. Senator Hutchison wins Nevada. Luck be a lady tonight for Senator Hutchison." -- Dan Rather

Nevada:

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 50.4%

Al Gore: 48.0%

(D) Al Gore: 256 (48.9%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 243 (48.9%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.5%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.2%)

Washington: Too Close to Call (Lean Gore)

Al Gore: 50.1%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 44.9%

Ralph Nader: 4.4%

Oregon: Too Close to Call (Tossup)

Al Gore: 47.1%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 46.8%

Ralph Nader: 5.4%

Iowa: Too Close to Call (Lean Gore)

Al Gore: 49.3%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 48.0%

Wisconsin: Too Close to Call (Tossup)

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 48.8%

Al Gore: 48.7%

"And we can projecting Washington for Vice President Al Gore." -- Dan Rather.

Washington: Too Close to Call (Lean Gore)

√ Al Gore: 50.2%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 44.9%

Ralph Nader: 4.3%

(D) Al Gore: 267 (48.9%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 243 (48.9%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.5%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.2%)

"The race is teetering on a knife's edge. Vice President Al Gore is on the verge, verge we cannot emphasize enough, the verge of crossing the 270 mark. Three votes shy of being elected President; the first Vice President to succeed an incumbent president since Martin Van Buren. Still, this is anyone's ball game as the votes are extremely close in many of the undecided states.

A point worthy of note tonight is the possibility, however slim of a recount. Many states across the country have laws for an automatic recount. In the state of Oregon, anything less than 0.2% of the vote is automatically recounted. Oregon is right on the line.

Ohio it is 0.5%, but it looks like that won't be happening, unless the Vice President and his team were to contest it. The results in Ohio are 49.5% for Senator Hutchison, 47.3% for Al Gore." -- Dan Rather

Wisconsin:

√ Kay Bailey Hutchison: 48.9%

Al Gore: 48.6%

"In the pivotal state of Wisconsin, we can now declare that it goes to Senator Hutchison. A narrow win, but enough of a win to keep her competitive in the game this evening." -- Dan Rather

(D) Al Gore: 267 (48.9%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 254 (48.9%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.5%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.2%)

"At this point Vice President Al Gore needs one state to put him over the top. Looking at the map, a win in Iowa would do it the Vice President, but it could be Oregon. Kay Bailey Hutchison needs both states. We assume she'll take Alaska, it's as Republican as it gets up there, but she needs both Oregon and Iowa to make it over the finish line. We are now getting word from the Republican camp that despite the closeness, they are not conceding anything yet. They believe they still have a shot in this race, but as we look at this map one state seems to say it all and that is Florida. Ed Bradley, your thoughts on it." -- Dan Rather

"Florida is the election and if Al Gore wins tonight, which at this point it is very likely despite the closeness in the electoral and popular vote, Florida put him over the top. Hutchison wanted that state. It narrowly went for Clinton back in '96, it went for Kirkpatrick in '92, it's a reliable state for the GOP, but the fact that it was called for Gore and called for him early in the evening I think speaks volumes about the direction of this night. If Florida had gone for Hutchison, which in the last few days the polls showed a tightening race, we'd be looking at a different map right now, she'd be President-elect. Now the race is still fluid, Wisconsin, was a state they competed it, but the last few days the polls gave a narrow edge to Gore, but apparently those polls were wrong it went for Hutchison, a Republican, the first time since Ronald Reagan's landslide in 1984, so that has to give the Republicans solace tonight." -- Ed Bradley

"To think of all the time the campaigns kept crisscrossing the country in Pennsylvania and Ohio and California and yet all three states are gone and gone relatively easily." -- Dan Rather

"Pennsylvania was leaning Gore the whole way, it is not surprise. Ohio, we knew would be close, but it was trending for the Senator the last few weeks so no shock there, California is the interesting one. Many of us suspected it would not be called right at 11, but it went solidly for Gore with 53 percent of the vote to Senator Hutchison's 42 percent." -- Ed Bradley

"Hold on one moment Ed we do have a major projection to make at this time; you know I wouldn't do it if it weren't important. Al Gore wins. Iowa goes for the Vice President. That's it folks. Al Gore is now President-elect of the United States. He will be the 42nd President of the United States. He wins Iowa and with the Presidency." -- Dan Rather

BREAKING NEWS: AL GORE WINS PRESIDENCY

Iowa:

√ Al Gore: 49.4%

Kay Bailey Hutchison: 48.6%

√ (D) Al Gore: 274 (48.9%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison: 254 (48.9%)

(G) Ralph Nader: 0 (1.5%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan: 0 (0.2%)

[NHI]

Al Gore Makes History; First VP Elected President Since Martin Van Buren

Oh Kay

Kay Bailey Hutchison, gracious in defeat called on the country to unite behind President-Elect Al Gore. She pledged her full support and cooperation. "We are passionate partisans, but it should never trump our patriotic duty to country first. We are after all Americans and we will unite and rally together as we have done so in the past, because this country only works when everyone of us takes part."

2000 Presidential Election Results Turnout: 55.1%

√ (D) Al Gore/Joe Lieberman: 281 (48.71%)

(R) Kay Bailey Hutchison/John McCain: 257 (48.45%)

(G) Ralph Nader/Winona LaDuke: 0 (1.80%)

(RF) Pat Buchanan/Ezola B. Foster: 0 (0.24%)

Other: 0 (0.8%)

Coming up: 2004 Election

[Senator Cris]

Great!

[TX Conservative Dem]

In Texas, Governor George W. Bush (R) wins Hutchison's open U.S. Senate seat very easily with 70% of the statewide vote, garnering 40% of Latinos and also 25% of African Americans. Including winning 33% of Democrats.

Bush will resign the governorship effective immediately on November 14, 2000 and be succeeded as governor by LG Rick Perry (R).

KBH is out of a job HAHAHA .

Bush 43 positioning himself for a 2004 White House bid.

[Potatoe]

In Texas, Governor George W. Bush (R) wins Hutchison's open U.S. Senate seat very easily with 70% of the statewide vote, garnering 40% of Latinos and also 25% of African Americans. Including winning 33% of Democrats.

Bush will resign the governorship effective immediately on November 14, 2000 and be succeeded as governor by LG Rick Perry (R).

KBH is out of a job HAHAHA .

Bush 43 positioning himself for a 2004 White House bid.

Please stop, this is not your TL.

[DKrol]

In Texas, Governor George W. Bush (R) wins Hutchison's open U.S. Senate seat very easily with 70% of the statewide vote, garnering 40% of Latinos and also 25% of African Americans. Including winning 33% of Democrats.

Bush will resign the governorship effective immediately on November 14, 2000 and be succeeded as governor by LG Rick Perry (R).

KBH is out of a job HAHAHA .

Bush 43 positioning himself for a 2004 White House bid.

Please stop, this is not your TL.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If Gore had won in 2000, I still think Bush 43 or Jeb would have ran against him and likely won.

[badgate]

This is the first time since PolitiJunkie was on the forum that I feel we need Timeline etiquette guidelines.


Congrats on a great 2000 election NHI. I particularly like how you track the natl popular vote over the course of election night.

[Joshgreen]

If Gore had won in 2000, I still think Bush 43 or Jeb would have ran against him and likely won.

No one cares.

[NHI]

This is the first time since PolitiJunkie was on the forum that I feel we need Timeline etiquette guidelines.


Congrats on a great 2000 election NHI. I particularly like how you track the natl popular vote over the course of election night.

Thanks; I appreciate it. and probably not a bad idea for discussion.

[NHI]

Al Gore Takes Charge

Al Gore's election was significant, in the sense that he became the first sitting Vice President since Martin Van Buren to successfully win the presidency. However, his narrow margin of victory over Senator Hutchison did not deliver the mandate to govern he hoped, and with Republicans still in control of the House and Senate, much of Gore's initiatives would have be stonewalled. His close election win meant to the President-Elect that he would have to continue as his successor Bill Clinton and govern in a moderate fashion. Triangulation was far from over...

The Gore Presidency throughout the first year saw very few legislative accomplishments, with the exception of the Administration's Education act "No Child Left Behind". The most trying moment of the Gore Presidency came following the September 11th, terrorist attacks. In the wake of the events Gore's approval rating shot up to 87 percent, and he led the United States and its allies into war in Afghanistan aimed to crush the terrorist supporting Taliban Government.

Gore Addresses the Nation

Heading into his reelection Gore looked to be a tough President to beat. In the 2002 midterms the Democrats narrowly retook control of the House of Representatives. Dick Gephardt became Speaker and with a 51-48 split Tom Daschle became Majority Leader and Democrats reclaimed control of the Senate. The Democratic Congress now looked to revive much of the agenda proposed by the President, including initiatives to tackle Global Warming and a expansion of Medicare, through his Medicare Part D proposal. President Gore pushed for the Kyoto Protocol, but it was failed to be ratified in the Senate, while Republicans were in control. He pushed for it again, but once more it failed to pass the Senate.

Still with a largely successful war in Afghanistan and a few major domestic accomplishments Gore looked to be a shoe-in for reelection, though a fragile economy gave his advisers reason to pause. Yet, by 2003 now clear front runner had emerged for the Republican nomination.

George Bush, who many saw the heir apparent considered throwing his hat into the ring, but ultimately decided against a bid Bush's pass opened up the field even more than it already was before.

Senator and Former VP candidate John McCain declared his intentions to run at a rally in Nashua, where he staked his entire campaign on. His running mate Kay Bailey Hutchison, was urged to enter the race, but as she said following her close loss she would not run for President again.

Besides McCain, Texas Representative Ron Paul entered the race, though with little name recognition he was not considered top tier. New York Governor George Pataki considered a run, but ultimately passed when it became clear that New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was going to enter the race. The Former New York Mayor became known as America's Mayor in the aftermath of September 11th and his leadership was recognized. The big money donors saw Giuliani as the only candidate who could go toe-toe with Gore on national security issues, while pitching economic reforms to moderates and independents. His more liberal positions on abortion and gun caused many conservatives to hesitate, but that did not stop him from officially entering the race.

Giuliani Declared Campaign; Instantly Assumes Role as Front Runner

Along with Giuliani came endorsements from high profile Republicans. In a race of three people, and McCain considered a long shot dark horse, Giuliani looked unstoppable. Though this did not deter Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee from entering the race. His poor name ID and little fundraising made him a non-starter to most, but he focused most of his campaign efforts on the Iowa Caucuses.

2000 runner up and former Congressman J.C. Watts, flirted with another bid, but ultimately decided against it and backed Giuliani. The field did elicit a few more candidates including Actor and Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson. Lincoln Chafee entered the race, running as a moderate, and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

Republican Primary Poll:

Rudy Giuliani: 29%

John McCain: 19%

Haley Barbour: 15%

Fred Thompson: 13%

Mike Huckabee: 4%

Lincoln Chafee: 3%

Ron Paul: 1%

Undecided: 16%

Giuliani cemented his front runner status throughout 2003, by racking up endorsements and showcasing impressive fundraising. Also, when polled against Gore Giuliani performed the best, coming usually within 3 or 2 points of the President. Still, conservatives were nervous around Giuliani and continued to search for an acceptable alternative. Thompson, who's campaign had a lot of interest going into the race, ultimately fizzled and collapsed. Lincoln Chafee tried to position himself, but never caught on and by December his support dropped below 3 percent.

Heading into the Iowa Caucuses, which Giuliani did not compete in, the race looked to be a three-way splint between Giuliani, McCain and Barbour. Yet, Mike Huckabee, the true dark horse in the race changed the primary completely by shocking the political world and winning the Iowa Caucuses. Haley Barbour, who was widely expected to win the caucuses finished a distant second.

Iowa Caucuses:

√ Mike Huckabee: 35% (17)

Haley Barbour: 25% (11)

Fred Thompson: 13% (3)

John McCain: 12% (2)

Ron Paul: 7% (1)

Rudy Giuliani: 5% (0)

Lincoln Chafee: 0.9% (0)

Other: 2.1%

The Man From Hope

Huckabee's win in Iowa changed the dynamics of the Republican race, but Giuliani still counted on a win in New Hampshire to set his campaign back on track. However, in a shocking upset John McCain pulled out a narrow victory over the New York Mayor, once again turning the conventional wisdom of the race on its' head.

MAC-MENTUM

√ John McCain: 36% (6)

Rudy Giuliani: 34% (5)

Mike Huckabee: 13% (1)

Ron Paul: 7%

Haley Barbour: 5%

Lincoln Chafee: 3%

Other: 2%

Giuliani on the Ropes

Wounded, but not fatally, Giuliani left New Hampshire, focusing his campaign efforts on the Michigan and Florida primary. The campaign already built up a firewall in Florida, regarding it as Giuliani's last stand. The surprise wins of McCain and Huckabee changed the prospects of the race entirely. After New Hampshire Lincoln Chafee took the same cue that Fred Thompson did after Iowa and bid adieu. Ron Paul remained in the race, but not enough of a factor to change much of the dynamics. Haley Barbour pledged to continue at least through South Carolina, where he hoped his campaign could rebuild and relaunch itself heading into Florida.

Giuliani and McCain competed heavily in Michigan and following New Hampshire, McCain seemed to be pulling away in Michigan. Polls going into the primary showed McCain with a five to ten point lead over the Mayor, but when the results were finally announced McCain won, but by the narrowest of margins: 1 percent. (35-34 percent) A win, but enough for Giuliani to carry on and fight in Florida.


Continuing his focus on the early caucus states, Huckabee scored a narrow win in the Nevada caucuses, setting up in a strong position to take on Barbour in South Carolina.

Delegate Count: After Nevada

Mike Huckabee: (31)

John McCain: (29)

Rudy Giuliani: (28)

Haley Barbour: (11)

Ron Paul: (2)

Both Huckabee and Barbour were in a deadlocked contest for first in South Carolina, and early polls indicated a close Huckabee win, but to the shock everyone Giuliani was helped by the divided conservative vote, giving him a narrow surprise victory in the primary; his first win on the entire primary. Despite the support of Lindsay Graham, McCain finished a disappointing fourth place.

South Carolina Primary:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 28% (12)

Mike Huckabee: 26% (6)

Haley Barbour: 25% (5)

John McCain: 15%

Ron Paul: 5%

Other: 1%

Delegate Count: After South Carolina

Rudy Giuliani: (40)

Mike Huckabee: (37)

John McCain: (29)

Haley Barbour: (16)

Ron Paul: (2)

Giuliani rode out of South Carolina and onto an impressive win in Florida. He added to his delegate count and support. Haley Barbour ended his bid after South Carolina and endorsed Giuliani, leaving only McCain and Huckabee in the race. McCain remained through Super Tuesday, but only carried his home state of Arizona.

Huckabee, who remained the only conservative challenger to Giuliani performed better than the Mayor in the Bible Belt and traditionally Republican states, while the Former Mayor scored impressive win in the big state like California, New Jersey and New York.

[NHI]

CONCLUSION OF THE 2004 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Map: Post Super Tuesday

Rudy Giuliani: 610 Delegates

Mike Huckabee: 359

John McCain: 95

Ron Paul: 5

Only Giuliani and Huckabee remained in the race after Super Tuesday. Huckabee would score a few wins in Louisiana and Kansas, while Giuliani crushed Huckabee in the Maryland, DC and Virginia contest; adding to his delegate count. (Huckabee: 395) (Giuliani: 723)

In the early March contests, Huckabee hoped to topple Giuliani in one of the major contests, but Giuliani destroyed Huckabee, taking all four contests in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont and with them all the delegates.

Rudy Giuliani: 993

Mike Huckabee: 401

Despite the long odds, Huckabee remained in the race, refusing to concede until one candidate acquired the necessary delegates to win the nomination. Huckabee rebounded with a win in Mississippi (437) and a narrow second place finish to Giuliani in Pennsylvania. Still, Huckabee could not overtake his lead in the delegates and any chance of a brokered convention were slim. Huckabee would score a few more wins throughout the end of the contests, winning Indiana and North Carolina, two upsets for the Giuliani campaign, while the nomination fight dragged on until June Giuliani managed to narrowly clinch the nomination, winning 20 more delegates than needed.

√ Rudy Giuliani: 1,162 Delegates (48%)

Mike Huckabee: 630 (37%)

John McCain: 95 (6%)

Haley Barbour: 16 (4%)

Ron Paul: 5 (2%)

Other: 0 (3%)

The Republican Nominee

Rudy's securing of the nomination alarmed conservatives, who did not embrace the idea of a squishy moderate as their candidate. Conservative commentator and firebrand Ann Coulter balked at the idea of a Giuliani candidacy,  "Giuliani is very liberal, When this country gets to the point when both candidates support abortion, we can hang it up as a country." When pressed if she would support a convention fight or a third party candidacy she did not comment, only to say, 'We'll see what happens, he is at this time the presumptive nominee."

And earlier endorser of Giuliani, Pat Robertson called on Evangelicals to unite behind Giuliani, as he was the strongest candidate to protect America in a dangerous world and can reverse the Democratic policies of big government, pushed by President Gore.

General Election Poll: June 2004 (Gore +6)

President Al Gore: 50%

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 44%

Undecided: 6%

Coming off the Republican Primary Giuliani trailed Gore by five to seven points depending on the poll. The focus of the Giuliani campaign was three pillars: National Security, Tax Cuts and Government Reform. By down playing the social issues, Giuliani hoped to present himself as a fiscal conservative, who would keep American safe, when Republican for the convention in New York City. Though his liberal positions, especially on abortion continued to bother conservatives who felt a Giuliani nomination would be 'writing off the conservative movement'.

Tapping the right person for VP was of importance, and as the Democrats met in Boston to renominate Al Gore Giuliani was finalizing his VP list that included: Governor Mike Huckabee, Haley Barbour, Rep. Mike Pence and Senator Sam Brownback. Ultimately, Giuliani went with the Kansas Senator, as a way to unite the party behind his candidacy.

Giuliani/Brownback

The pick of Giuliani calmed the nerves of many conservatives and the possibility of a convention floor fight ended. As Al Gore and the Democrats ended their convention in Boston, Republicans prepared to nominate Giuliani in New York. In his acceptance speech lambasted Gore for the growth of government. Giuliani promised to be a reformer, drawing on his tenure as Mayor of New York City, when he cut the taxes by more than 8 billion dollars. He pledged to keep America strong and to find and stop the terrorist who dare cross the United States of America.

"...in this city I reformed government. I reformed welfare. I took on the union and stood up for the average worker. I made government work for the people and if you give me the chance and honor I will do it in Washington, DC...this is not a time for weak leadership, this is a time for bold action, a time for American strength. I will never relent in my defense of America and I will keep this country strong, so that we are never attacked on our soil again..."

Going out of his convention, for the first time Giuliani topped President Gore in a tracking poll. Gore, who attacked Giuliani in his convention speech as a 'run of the mill Republican with the same old playbook', received little to no bounce coming out of his convention, much to the shock and disappointment of Democrats.

General Election Poll: (Giuliani +2)

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 47%

President Al Gore: 45%

Undecided: 8%

Giuliani's credentials as Mayor of New York put him on par with Gore on national security issues, and many believed that if he could make the election about Democratic fatigue and about the future Gore could be defeated.

[Senator Cris]

Go Rudy!

[TX Conservative Dem]

Republicans would have won back the Senate and House in 2004 and held onto both chambers.

Plus Obama wins the Illinois Senate race.

[NHI]

Giuliani Campaigns in OHIO, Attacks Gore for a Poor Economy

Close States in 2000:

Florida: Gore +0.7

√ Gore: 49.0%

Hutchison: 48.3%

Wisconsin: Hutchison +0.2

√ Hutchison: 48.9%

Gore: 48.7%

Iowa: Gore +0.5

√ Gore: 49.2%

Hutchison: 48.7%

Oregon: Gore +0.1

√ Gore: 46.9%

Hutchison: 46.8%

Ohio: Hutchison +1.2

√ Hutchison: 49.8%

Gore: 48.7%

New Mexico: Gore +0.6

√ Gore: 49.1%

Hutchison: 48.5%

Nevada: Hutchison: +2.0

√ Hutchison: 50.0%

Gore: 48.0%

Minnesota: Gore +1.5

√ Gore: 50.0%

Hutchison: 48.5%

Maine: Gore +4.0

√ Gore: 49.9%

Hutchison: 45.9%

New Hampshire: Hutchison +2.6

√ Huthison: 48.9%

Gore: 46.3%

Michigan: Gore +2.2

√ Gore: 48.7%

Hutchison: 46.5%

Pennsylvania: Gore +2.9

√ Gore: 50.0%

Hutchison: 47.1%

2004

Electoral Votes: 137

Florida: Gore Too Close to Call

Gore: 48.2%

Giuliani: 48.1%

Wisconsin: Too Close to Call

Giuliani: 48.2%

Gore: 48.0%

Iowa: Gore +2

Gore: 49%

Giuliani: 47%

Oregon: Gore +1

Gore: 47%

Giuliani: 46%

Ohio: Giuliani +1

Giuliani: 49%

Gore: 48%

New Mexico: Too Close to Call

Gore: 47%

Giuliani: 47%

Nevada: Too Close to Call

Giuliani: 48%

Gore: 48%

Minnesota: Gore +2

Gore: 50%

Giuliani: 48%

Maine: Gore +3

Gore: 49

Giuliani: 46%

New Hampshire: Giuliani +1

Huthison: 48%

Gore: 47%

Michigan: Gore +2

Gore: 49%

Hutchison: 47%

Pennsylvania: Gore +3

Gore: 50%

Giuliani: 47%

Polling

Marist: Gore +1

Gore: 48%

Giuliani: 47%

GW/Battleground: Tied

Gore: 47%

Giuliani: 47%

CBS NEWS: Giuliani +1

Giuliani: 47%

Gore: 46%

Fox News: Gore +1

Gore: 47%

Giuliani: 46%

NBC/WSJ: Giuliani +1

Giuliani: 49%

Gore: 48%

Pew: Tied

Giuliani: 48%

Gore: 48%

RCP Average: Giuliani +0.1

Giuliani: 47.3%

Gore: 47.2%

President Al Gore Approval Rating

Approve: 49%

Disapprove: 45%

No Opinion: 6%

Direction of the Country

Wrong Direction: 50%

Right Direction: 44%

Unsure: 6%

Unemployment Rate: 5.7%

Home State Polling:

Tennessee: Giuliani +4

Giuliani: 49%

Gore: 45%

New York: Gore +3

Gore: 49%

Giuliani: 46%

Connecticut: Tied

Gore: 48%

Giuliani: 48%

Kansas: Giuliani +20

Giuliani: 58%

Gore: 38%

[NHI]

Gore Rallies Democrats

"Our world has changed in the past four years. We've been attacked at home, our mettle has been tested, but our resolve has never been stronger. What happens in a presidential election matters. A lot. The outcome profoundly affects the lives of all 293 million Americans, and people in the rest of the world, too. The choice of who is president affects your life and your family’s future.

And never has that been more true than in 2004, because let’s face it our country faces deep challenges. These challenges we now confront are not Democratic or Republican challenges; they are American challenges that we all must overcome together as one people, as one nation. We have to be crystal clear about the threat we face from terrorism. It is deadly. It is real. It is imminent. I want to say to all Americans this evening that whether it’s the threat to the global environment or the erosion of America’s leadership in the world, whether it is the challenge to our economy from new competitors or the challenge to our security from new enemies...now is not the time to fumble, now is the time remain steadfast. Leadership is needed in times of great change and I ask to continue being that leader."

Democrats Look to November

Gore received little bump coming out of his convention, concerning Democrats about his chances in 2004. Combined with Democratic fatigue and a soft economy Gore could only rely on his role as Commander-in-Chief, though Giuliani having served as Mayor could make just as an effective argument that he was prepared to deal with and confront terrorism.

Gallup Tracking Poll: September 2004

President Al Gore: 48%

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 47%

Undecided: 5%

Giuliani Attacks Gore for a Weak Economy

In the first of three debates, with the premiere one dealing with domestic issues, Giuliani attacked Gore for his handling of the economy; blaming his for a weak recovery following the recession and pushing his own tax plan as a way to stir economic growth. Giuliani was largely seen as the winner of the first debate and in the final two a two hall debate and one focused on foreign policy he tied with Gore, or Gore won slightly. Gore's performance in all three debates was decried as wooden and stiff. He was seen by some to have won the the foreign policy debate, but most outlets called it a tie.

Heading into election day once more America prepared for what looked to be an extremely close contest. Most polls called it tied race, or gave a narrow advantage to either candidate, but it was well in the margin of error.

General Election Poll: November 2004

President Al Gore: 48.18%

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 48.04%

Undecided: 3.78%

[TX Conservative Dem]

What about the debates between Gore and Giuliani?

[NHI]

Election Night 2004

President Al Gore: 0 (0%)

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 0 (0%)

"Good evening and welcome to CBS' Election Night coverage. The campaigning is finished. The ads have gone off the air. Tonight is the day of Democracy in the United States...millions of American have gone to the polls to take part in this sacred responsibility. Tonight President Al Gore, fights his political life in what the polls have indicated is a close contest with Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. We expect this to be a long night and we are prepared to wait until we are absolutely certain, 100 percent, air tight on on our projection. We don't want any mistakes, we want you to know when you hear it here, that the results are sure and final.

We have some results to call at this time now. President Al Gore is the projected winner in the state of Vermont, which continues its' fourth straight time voting for the Democratic ticket.

Vermont

√ Al Gore: 58%

Rudy Giuliani: 41%

"We are also able to project the state of South Carolina, Indiana and Kentucky for Mr. Giuliani." -- Dan Rather

South Carolina:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 57%

Al Gore: 42%

Indiana:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 55%

Al Gore: 44%

Kentucky:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 54%

Al Gore: 45%

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 27 (51.6%)

President Al Gore: 3 (47.3%)

All those states were expected to go for Mr. Giuliani, Kentucky is the real shocker tonight. The polls showed a tightening race the last few days and President Gore believed it was competitive, but it stays Republican tonight and quite solidly. We cannot call the state of Georgia at this time. The state of Virginia is too close to call at this time as well." -- Dan Rather

Our focus remains on the battleground of Ohio, which is still a battleground and bell weather, but four years ago it went narrowly for Senator Hutchison and for the first time since 1960 the state did not vote for the winner. So we will be watching Ohio closely tonight; as usually, it sides with the winner of the Presidency." -- Dan Rather

West Virginia:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 56%

Al Gore: 43%

"We project now that Rudy Giuliani is the winner in West Virginia, another Republican stronghold like it was four years ago." -- Dan Rather

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 32 (51.6%)

President Al Gore: 3 (47.3%)

"Mayor Giuliani still leading, but it is very early in what we're expecting to be a long night. Let us look at the results in the undecided states." -- Dan Rather

Ohio: Too Close to Call

Rudy Giuliani: 51%

Al Gore: 48%

Georgia: Too Close to Call

Rudy Giuliani: 53%

Al Gore: 46%

North Carolina: Too Close to Call

Rudy Giuliani: 52%

Al Gore: 47%

"Coming up on the eight o'clock hour the polls in many states will be closing and this race may see some dramatic shakeup." -- Dan Rather

Alabama:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 59%

Al Gore: 40%

Connecticut: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 51%

Rudy Giuliani: 49%

Delaware: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 51%

Rudy Giuliani: 48%

Florida: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 51%

Rudy Giuliani: 48%

Illinois: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 52%

Rudy Giuliani: 47%

Maine: (3/4)

√ Al Gore: 53%

Rudy Giuliani: 47%

Maryland:

√ Al Gore: 55%

Rudy Giuliani: 44%

Massachusetts:

√ Al Gore: 59%

Rudy Giuliani: 40%

Mississippi:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 57%

Al Gore: 42%

New Hampshire: Too Close to Call

Rudy Giuliani: 52%

Al Gore: 47%

New Jersey: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 53%

Rudy Giuliani: 46%

Oklahoma:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 59%

Al Gore: 39%

Pennsylvania: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 51%

Rudy Giuliani: 48%

Rhode Island:

√ Al Gore: 56%

Rudy Giuliani: 43%

Tennessee: Too Early to Call

Rudy Giuliani: 54%

Al Gore: 45%

Washington, DC:

√ Al Gore: 87%

Rudy Giuliani: 12%

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 54 (48%)

President Al Gore: 35 (51%)

"And we can now project Georgia will be won by Mayor Giuliani. The Republicans have been taking down the south like trees in a twister. Giuliani continues to add to his electoral tally."

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 69 (48.3%)

President Al Gore: 35 (50.8%)

[NHI]

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 101 (48.7%)

President Al Gore: 45 (50.2%)

"...and we project that Rudy Giuliani is the winner in the state of Tennessee, home state of President Al Gore." -- Dan Rather

Tennessee:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 54%

Al Gore: 45%

"Another loss in his home state, but he didn't need it four years ago and may not need it again tonight. Gore continues to hold onto his narrow lead in the popular vote, but still trails Rudy Giuliani in the electoral vote, which is the name of the game folks. We known turn to John Roberts who is with the President in Washington, DC tonight, John." -- Dan Rather

"Well Dan the President and his team are feeling confident tonight. The exit polls show a close race between him and Mayor Giuliani, but they believe he will be reelected tonight. The weak economy, something Mayor Giuliani has made the focus of his campaign they believe will not hurt them, that despite it this President will be reelected." -- John Roberts

"Even with a loss in Tennessee again?" -- Dan Rather

"Frankly, they didn't win it four years they did not expect to win it again this year. The only real state that has surprised them is Kentucky, which they thought, maybe they could turn back, but it was not to be. Aside from that, everything is going according to their own projections and models." -- John Roberts

"Coming up on nine o'clock, we have another projection make. Rudy Giuliani is the winner in Virginia." -- Dan Rather

Virginia:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 53%

Al Gore: 45%

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 114 (48.8%)

President Al Gore: 45 (49.8%)

"Rudy Giuliani is tearing through the south, carrying all the Hutchison states, with Florida being the decider. Gore leads, albeit narrowly." -- Dan Rather

Florida: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.7%

Rudy Giuliani: 48.4%

New Jersey: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 52.0%

Rudy Giuliani: 47.1%

Missouri: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.1%

Rudy Giuliani: 48.9%

Ohio: Too Close to Call

Rudy Giuliani: 51.0%

Al Gore: 48.7%

Pennsylvania: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.6%

Rudy Giuliani: 48.4%

New Hampshire: Too Close to Call

Rudy Giuliani: 51.7%

Al Gore: 48.0%

"It's nine o'clock now on the east coast and we can project the following states: We can project that Al Gore will win the state of Illinois. The land of Lincoln will not be in the Republican column tonight. We project he will also win Minnesota." -- Dan Rather

Illinois:

√ Al Gore: 52%

Rudy Giuliani: 47%

Minnesota:

√ Al Gore: 53%

Rudy Giuliani: 46%

"On the Republican side we project Rudy Giuliani will win the states of: Kansas, the home of his running mate Sam Brownback, the state of Texas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Louisiana and Wyoming will go for Mr. Giuliani. All Republican strong holds, remaining Republican strong holds." -- Dan Rather

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 177 (49.3%)

President Al Gore: 76 (49.2%)

"A close count in the popular vote, but a large spread in the electoral college, but many of those big states haven't fallen yet for either candidate. The Democrats can have a moment of hope, we are projecting Al Gore the winner in the Second Congressional District in Maine. Maine remains completely Democratic." -- Dan Rather.

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 177 (49.3%)

President Al Gore: 77 (49.2%)

Michigan: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.9%

Rudy Giuliani: 48.3%

Wisconsin: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.3%

Rudy Giuliani: 48.5%

Colorado: Too Close to Call

Rudy Giuliani: 51.7%

Al Gore: 47.3%

New Mexico: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.6%

Rudy Giuliani: 47.9%

New York: Too Close to Call

Al Gore: 50.4%

Rudy Giuliani: 48.6%

"And looking back to the Northeast in New Hampshire, the state's primary eluded Mr. Giuliani back in February, but tonight it goes once more in the Republican column. Rudy Giuliani wins the state of New Hampshire."-- Dan Rather

New Hampshire:

√ Rudy Giuliani: 51.3%

Al Gore: 47.5%

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 181 (49.3%)

President Al Gore: 77 (49.1%)

"Al Gore back on the map. We project he's the winner in the state of New Jersey. The time in thirty-four minutes nine o'clock and we project him the winner in the Garden State." -- Dan Rather

New Jersey:

√ Al Gore: 52.0%

Rudy Guiliani: 46.8%

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 181 (49.3%)

President Al Gore: 92 (49.1%)