US reliance on foreign oil drops to 27 yr low

[DINGO Joe]

On Dec 30th, the EIA released US Supply/Demand numbers for October. In October the US used 19.273 mbpd (million barrels per day) of crude oil and petroleum products and our net imports were 5.594 mbpd, meaning the US relied on foreigners for 29% of our petroleum needs, the lowest since April of 1986. 

Furthermore, our net imports from Canada were 2.532 mbpd meaning our net imports with the rest of the world were 3.062 mbpd--or 16% of our petroleum needs.  Three years ago, Net imports were 8.662 with Canada providing 2.129  and the rest of the world 6.533.  So, if the pace of the last 3 years can be maintained, we're 3 years away from North American energy independence and 6 years away from US independence.

Relevant links:

US Net Imports

Canadian Net Imports

US Product Supplied

Supply and Disposition

It should be noted that our role in the World of Petroleum has changed.  Back in 2007, besides importing oil we also were net importers of finished goods.  Now, thanks to cheap US oil and laws that prevent exporting unfinished oil (except to Canada) we bring in more oil than we need and are now a major net exporter of finished petroleum products.

[DINGO Joe]

December number are out:

Net imports 5.057 mbpd (27%)
Net imports sans Canada 2.455 mbpd (13%)

[AggregateDemand]

Falling imports is good news, but US consumption is rising again. Rising US consumption and unrest in Ukraine could make 2014 an ugly year for oil consumers. We'll see.

[DINGO Joe]

Falling imports is good news, but US consumption is rising again. Rising US consumption and unrest in Ukraine could make 2014 an ugly year for oil consumers. We'll see.

Consumption seems to have been weather related, agriculture demand was much higher last fall both for fuel and propane because of a much larger harvest than the previous drought year.  Plus wet weather during harvest required more propane for crop drying,  and then the colder winter has put pressure on both propane and diesel.  Be interesting to see what it all looks like in April and May.

[dead0man]

People don't care about good news.

[Nhoj]

Falling imports is good news, but US consumption is rising again. Rising US consumption and unrest in Ukraine could make 2014 an ugly year for oil consumers. We'll see.

Consumption seems to have been weather related, agriculture demand was much higher last fall both for fuel and propane because of a much larger harvest than the previous drought year.  Plus wet weather during harvest required more propane for crop drying,  and then the colder winter has put pressure on both propane and diesel.  Be interesting to see what it all looks like in April and May.

There was also a pipeline in canada that broke and supposedly contributed to the propane spike.

[AggregateDemand]

Consumption seems to have been weather related, agriculture demand was much higher last fall both for fuel and propane because of a much larger harvest than the previous drought year.  Plus wet weather during harvest required more propane for crop drying,  and then the colder winter has put pressure on both propane and diesel.  Be interesting to see what it all looks like in April and May.

Reasonable explanation that many people accepted for 2013, but the 4-week running averages have remained universally inflated since July 2013, without harvest or weather-related fluctuations. If oil prices fall sharply in the coming months, as they usually do during the spring, then we can assume noise is influencing price. Otherwise, we have a new trend.