possible 2020 presidential candidates

[Mister Mets]

This is an interesting question, especially since recent presidential elections favored relative newcomers. George W Bush was elected President six years after becoming Governor, while Barack Obama had been Senator for four years. Oddly enough, presidential losers tend to have been in elected office longer (Dole had been a Senator for 28 years, Gore had been elected to the Senate sixteen years earlier, Kerry had been a Senator for  20 years, McCain had been a Senator for 22 years, Romney had run for Senate 18 years earlier and was elected Governor ten years earlier) although there are all sorts of convoluted reasons for that.

Strong contenders for the Democratic nomination...
Cory Booker (African-American with New York media market ties, combination of executive and legislative experience, avoidance of old conflicts)
Andrew Cuomo (Big-State Governor)
Kristen Gilibrand (Post-Obama Senator, Represents milestone Democrats want, Political savvy+ media connections)

Jay Nixon seems like a bland former Governor, the type who runs but doesn't have much impact. Klobuchar will have problems standing out in this crowd. I don't see what Hassan offers.

Crist might run but he was a former Republican, so I can't see the base supporting him. Hickenlooper is likely too old. Deval Patrick will have been out of office for some time, and got less than fifty percent when running for reelection in Massachusetts. Villariagosa's older, never elected to statewide office, has a messy personal life and a questionable record as mayor. I can't see anyone getting excited for O'Malley, although he may be a Senator at that point. Schweitzer will have been out of office for eight years.

It's always possible for Senators and former officeholders to do something that impresses the base, or gets them mentioned as potential Presidents.

I'd keep my eye on Chris Murphy as he's a younger Senator, in a party that likes nominating guys under fifty. There's also an opening for a relative newcomer with a liberal record. I could also see Tammy Baldwin running, since her record appeals to the base, and it would represent several milestones. Bill De Blasio's also one of the most prominent new progressives, but he'll have a tough time getting reelected.

If Michelle Nunn, or Alison Grimes is elected Senator, they would certainly be possibilities.

If Angel Taveras can be elected Governor of Rhode Island, he would be the Democratic party's most prominent Hispanic officeholders, although it took him a while to marry the mother of his daughter.

[Mister Mets]

Republicans have more of a tendency to nominate officials who have been in office for a while. Anyone who currently holds elected office, and has shot of finishing in the top three in the 2016 presidential primary will probably be a plausible presidential candidate, so I agree with the initial list.

I'd add a few more.
Brian Sandoval- Interested in running for Senate in Nevada. Can make a strong claim for electability if a weak candidate loses in a Goldwater-esque landslide.
Darrell Issa- Not that he'll win, but he's ambitious and getting older. I think he'll run at some point even if he's unlikely to do better than Duncan Hunter.
Pat Toomey- Swing state Senator who was once a favorite of movement conservatives.
Karen Handel- If she's elected Senator from Georgia.
Greg Abbot- Likely big-state Governor with inspiring story.
Ben Sasse- Young movement conservative with impressive academic credentials.
Bruce Rauner- Businessman who might be the next Governor of Illinois.

[Mister Mets]

Kristen Gilibrand (Post-Obama Senator, Represents milestone Democrats want, Political savvy+ media connections)

That raises an interesting question.  If Clinton is the 2016 Democratic nominee, but loses the general election, will the yearning among some primary voters to nominate a woman the next time around, in 2020, be intensified, or subdued?  Obviously, it's hard to say without seeing how the campaign plays out, but is there a scenario in which she loses, and people blame it in part on the voters not being ready for a female candidate, or something like that?

If Hillary loses, I suspect the party would still be happy to nominate a woman, although the intensity would be subdued.

There are a few other arguments against Hillary that might not apply to Gillibrand. It might be argued that Hillary was too closely associated with Obama, or too old, or had too much baggage, or a poor campaigner, or maybe that she was just a victim of circumstances that would have just as easily sunk O'Malley and Cuomo.

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

If Warren wants the nomination, 2016 is her best shot.

By 2020, there will be more Democrats with appeal to progressive activists. There was a description of the new class of 2012 as including a few of the most liberal Senators ever (Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy, Mazie Hirono, Brian Schatz, Tammy Baldwin.) By 2020, Murphy, and Schatz could be plausible nominees. Baldwin would represent major milestones with a record that makes activists happy, while also having decent establishment credentials (Elected to Congress in 1998, Defeated in a former Governor in an open election in a swing states) to appease more cautious Dems.

[Mister Mets]

Republicans had more wins, so more of the focus will be on that party.

Bruce Rauner's a businessman elected Governor of that big state next to Iowa. Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker could also be re-elected Governors by the time the 2020 race kicks off. Doug Ducey had the advantage of being CEO of a name brand (Cold Stone Creamery) before becoming Governor of Arizona.
Cory Gardner, Tom Cotton, Thom Tillis and Joni Ernst are potential candidates, and already established to be quite ambitious. Tillis is demographically the least appealing, but he had an impressive rise, becoming speaker of a state body four years after joining it, and becoming Senator four years after that.

On the Democratic side, Gary Peters is unlikely to stand out in comparison to Senators elected in 2012. Tom Wolf will likely be too old.

[Mister Mets]

The biggest thing to happen for the Democratic party in 2014 might be the nomination and confirmation of Julian Castro as HUD Secretary.

It's a plausible springboard for a presidential bid, and Castro would be a demographically appealing candidate for Democrats. He could excite Hispanic voters in Nevada, Colorado and Florida, and help with Texas fundraisers, while also encouraging Republicans to alienate a growing minority group.

He'll also have limited baggage, and as he won't hold any office, he'll have greater flexibility in terms of issues to emphasize.

He seems like a good candidate if a Republican President is vulnerable, or cruising to reelection. A loss with him could be better for Democrats than a loss with the second female nominee/ the second African-American nominee/ a generic white guy.

[Mister Mets]

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.

Yeah, just look at those old farts JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And those Republican spring chickens like Reagan, H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, and Romney.

Well only one of those won over the age of 70 and GHW Bush was 64 when he won in 1988, 7 years younger than Warren would be in 2020.

Your party is full of old farts today. It is run by pre baby boombers where as the GOP is increasingly the Gen-X party.

It's an empirical fact that the average Republican presidential nominee is older than the average Democratic presidential nominee.

Things have changed. The top-polling Democrats are currently three elderly grandparents: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Democrats are also overwhelmingly likely to nominate the last cycle's also-ran.

These reflect some changes in the party and society.

The party has become more amenable to letting people wait their turn now that women and African-Americans have risen in seniority. More women are getting significant careers later in life, with Janet Yellen as a prominent example, becoming Chair of the Federal Reserve at 67. Many of the elderly are healtheir than ever, with Ted Strickland considering a Senate bid at 75.

So when an Elizabeth Warren becomes Senator at 63, it's not necessarily the last step in her political career.

[Mister Mets]

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.

Yeah, just look at those old farts JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And those Republican spring chickens like Reagan, H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, and Romney.

Well only one of those won over the age of 70 and GHW Bush was 64 when he won in 1988, 7 years younger than Warren would be in 2020.

Your party is full of old farts today. It is run by pre baby boombers where as the GOP is increasingly the Gen-X party.

It's an empirical fact that the average Republican presidential nominee is older than the average Democratic presidential nominee.

Things have changed. The top-polling Democrats are currently three elderly grandparents: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Democrats are also overwhelmingly likely to nominate the last cycle's also-ran.

These reflect some changes in the party and society.

The party has become more amenable to letting people wait their turn now that women and African-Americans have risen in seniority. More women are getting significant careers later in life, with Janet Yellen as a prominent example, becoming Chair of the Federal Reserve at 67. Many of the elderly are healtheir than ever, with Ted Strickland considering a Senate bid at 75.

So when an Elizabeth Warren becomes Senator at 63, it's not necessarily the last step in her political career.

One election cycle isn't enough to reverse that trend. It's possible you might be correct, but there's not nearly enough evidence yet.

The rise of Sanders adds some support.

The factors that make it possible for candidates to run when they're older aren't going to go away.

[Mister Mets]

My list of possible (favored) candidates:

Democratic:

- Gov. Gavin Newsom(CA)
- Gov. Mike Michaud(ME)
- Gov. Greg Stanton(AZ)
- Sen. Claire McCaskill(MO)
- Sen. Cory Booker(NJ)
- Sen. Catherine Masto(NV)
- Sen. Anthony Foxx(NC)
- Sen. Charlie Crist(FL)
- Rep. Anthony Brown(MD)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo(NY)
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren(MA)
- Sen. Julian Castro(TX)
- Sen. Russ Feingold(WI)
- Rep. Keith Ellison(MN)

Republican:

- Gov. Marco Rubio(FL)
- Gov. Ryan Costello(PA)
- Gov. Kelly Fajardo(NM)
- Sen. John Kasich(OH)
- Sen. Cory Gardner(CO)
- Sen. Jeff Flake(AZ)
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski(AK)
- Sen. Sean Duffy(WI)
- Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers(WA)
- Gov. Mary Fallin(OK)
- Sen. Ted Cruz(TX)
- Sen. Joni Ernst(IA)
- Sen. Tim Scott(SC)

Gavin Newsom might be able to run as a second-year Governor.

Mike Michaud probably wouldn't.

McCaskill's going to have to win reelection with a midterm electorate.

Foxx has declined to run for Senate in North Carolina in 2016. Thoms isn't up again until 2020.

A guy who lost a gubernatorial election isn't going to run for President as a second-term Congressman. Or if he does, it's not going to go well.

Even if Crist can win in 2018, I don't see Democrats picking hm as their candidate for national office.

Kelly Farjado is a newly elected state legislator in New Mexico.

Murkowski lost a primary, and has a reputation for being too moderate.

Mary Fallin hasn't really been considered a national figure even though she ostensibly has the resume.

[Mister Mets]

My list of possible (favored) candidates:

Democratic:

- Gov. Gavin Newsom(CA)
- Gov. Mike Michaud(ME)
- Gov. Greg Stanton(AZ)
- Sen. Claire McCaskill(MO)
- Sen. Cory Booker(NJ)
- Sen. Catherine Masto(NV)
- Sen. Anthony Foxx(NC)
- Sen. Charlie Crist(FL)
- Rep. Anthony Brown(MD)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo(NY)
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren(MA)
- Sen. Julian Castro(TX)
- Sen. Russ Feingold(WI)
- Rep. Keith Ellison(MN)

Republican:

- Gov. Marco Rubio(FL)
- Gov. Ryan Costello(PA)
- Gov. Kelly Fajardo(NM)
- Sen. John Kasich(OH)
- Sen. Cory Gardner(CO)
- Sen. Jeff Flake(AZ)
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski(AK)
- Sen. Sean Duffy(WI)
- Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers(WA)
- Gov. Mary Fallin(OK)
- Sen. Ted Cruz(TX)
- Sen. Joni Ernst(IA)
- Sen. Tim Scott(SC)

Gavin Newsom might be able to run as a second-year Governor.

Mike Michaud probably wouldn't.
Note: Possible
McCaskill's going to have to win reelection with a midterm electorate.
With a GOP President, presumably.
Foxx has declined to run for Senate in North Carolina in 2016. Thoms isn't up again until 2020.
So did Gillespie in 2017.
A guy who lost a gubernatorial election isn't going to run for President as a second-term Congressman. Or if he does, it's not going to go well.
.... Why do you think he's running for Congress two years after losing a Gubernatorial race? Presumably, he wants to create a broader profile, and as a minority he has a certain appeal.
Even if Crist can win in 2018, I don't see Democrats picking hm as their candidate for national office.
Joe Lieberman didn't have much of a shot, either.
Kelly Farjado is a newly elected state legislator in New Mexico.
Future Gov. Material. She's being talked about as the next Sec. of State for New Mexico.
Murkowski lost a primary, and has a reputation for being too moderate.
.... Which is why Lieberman wouldn't have ran in 2008 if it was viable.
Mary Fallin hasn't really been considered a national figure even though she ostensibly has the resume
She'd be a good keynote speaker or running-mate for Rubio or Bush or Paul.

Replies in bold.

Didn't notice this at the time.

Big-state Governors with impressive backgrounds may be able to run for President in their second year (and no one has tried this since Jerry Brown in 1976) but that's not really the case for Maine.

Even with a GOP president, the midterm electorate is likely to be more conservative than the one that probably would have picked a sane Republican over McCaskill in 2012.

I kinda think Anthony Brown knows that his prospects are limited after losing a gubernatorial election in the most liberal state in the country.

Kelly Farjado may be a future New Mexico Secretary of State. That's not a viable office to run from in 2020.

I think it's telling that Mary Fallin hasn't gotten much national attention despite her resume. She wasn't vetted for Romney even though she was a female Governor, and former Congresswoman, with experience following a national emergency (the Oklahoma City bombings.) Her family life seems to be unsavory.

http://kfor.com/2015/07/27/governors-daughter-is-living-in-trailer-connected-to-the-mansion-does-it-violate-city-code/
http://amarillo.com/stories/010899/new_LO0727.shtml