possible 2020 presidential candidates
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Author Topic: possible 2020 presidential candidates  (Read 37864 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: February 23, 2014, 09:08:21 PM »

Barring some unforeseen circumstances, we'll have an incumbent president running for reelection in 2020.  Who from the opposition party will run for their party's nomination in 2020?

If a Republican is elected in 2016, then some possible Dem. candidates for 2020:

Cory Booker
Charlie Crist
Andrew Cuomo
Kirsten Gillibrand
Maggie Hassan
John Hickenlooper
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Jay Nixon
Martin O'Malley
Deval Patrick
Brian Schweitzer
Antonio Villaraigosa
Elizabeth Warren (she'll be over 70 by 2020, but still probably leading the early 2020 Democratic primary polls, so can't count her out)

If a Democrat is elected in 2016, then some possible GOP candidates for 2020:

Kelly Ayotte
Chris Christie
Tom Cotton
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Bobby Jindal
Mike Lee
Susana Martinez
Rand Paul
Mike Pence
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Rick Snyder
John Thune
Scott Walker
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Blue3
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2014, 02:19:29 AM »
« Edited: February 24, 2014, 02:21:20 AM by Starwatcher »

Out of the Republicans on your list:
Cruz
Paul
Rubio

Out of the Democrats on your list:
Gillibrand
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2014, 03:05:11 AM »

Julian & Joaquin Castro
Any number of females (especially Gillibrand)
Probably some other latinos/latinas as well
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2014, 02:25:56 PM »

This is an interesting question, especially since recent presidential elections favored relative newcomers. George W Bush was elected President six years after becoming Governor, while Barack Obama had been Senator for four years. Oddly enough, presidential losers tend to have been in elected office longer (Dole had been a Senator for 28 years, Gore had been elected to the Senate sixteen years earlier, Kerry had been a Senator for  20 years, McCain had been a Senator for 22 years, Romney had run for Senate 18 years earlier and was elected Governor ten years earlier) although there are all sorts of convoluted reasons for that.

Strong contenders for the Democratic nomination...
Cory Booker (African-American with New York media market ties, combination of executive and legislative experience, avoidance of old conflicts)
Andrew Cuomo (Big-State Governor)
Kristen Gilibrand (Post-Obama Senator, Represents milestone Democrats want, Political savvy+ media connections)

Jay Nixon seems like a bland former Governor, the type who runs but doesn't have much impact. Klobuchar will have problems standing out in this crowd. I don't see what Hassan offers.

Crist might run but he was a former Republican, so I can't see the base supporting him. Hickenlooper is likely too old. Deval Patrick will have been out of office for some time, and got less than fifty percent when running for reelection in Massachusetts. Villariagosa's older, never elected to statewide office, has a messy personal life and a questionable record as mayor. I can't see anyone getting excited for O'Malley, although he may be a Senator at that point. Schweitzer will have been out of office for eight years.

It's always possible for Senators and former officeholders to do something that impresses the base, or gets them mentioned as potential Presidents.

I'd keep my eye on Chris Murphy as he's a younger Senator, in a party that likes nominating guys under fifty. There's also an opening for a relative newcomer with a liberal record. I could also see Tammy Baldwin running, since her record appeals to the base, and it would represent several milestones. Bill De Blasio's also one of the most prominent new progressives, but he'll have a tough time getting reelected.

If Michelle Nunn, or Alison Grimes is elected Senator, they would certainly be possibilities.

If Angel Taveras can be elected Governor of Rhode Island, he would be the Democratic party's most prominent Hispanic officeholders, although it took him a while to marry the mother of his daughter.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2014, 02:38:30 PM »

Republicans have more of a tendency to nominate officials who have been in office for a while. Anyone who currently holds elected office, and has shot of finishing in the top three in the 2016 presidential primary will probably be a plausible presidential candidate, so I agree with the initial list.

I'd add a few more.
Brian Sandoval- Interested in running for Senate in Nevada. Can make a strong claim for electability if a weak candidate loses in a Goldwater-esque landslide.
Darrell Issa- Not that he'll win, but he's ambitious and getting older. I think he'll run at some point even if he's unlikely to do better than Duncan Hunter.
Pat Toomey- Swing state Senator who was once a favorite of movement conservatives.
Karen Handel- If she's elected Senator from Georgia.
Greg Abbot- Likely big-state Governor with inspiring story.
Ben Sasse- Young movement conservative with impressive academic credentials.
Bruce Rauner- Businessman who might be the next Governor of Illinois.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2014, 03:35:57 PM »

GOP

Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Susana Martinez
Scott Walker
Kelly Ayotte
Nikki Haley

Dems
Kirsten Gillibrand
Amy Klobuchar
Cory Booker
Deval Patrick
Julian Castro
Martin O'Malley
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2014, 08:23:45 PM »

Kristen Gilibrand (Post-Obama Senator, Represents milestone Democrats want, Political savvy+ media connections)

That raises an interesting question.  If Clinton is the 2016 Democratic nominee, but loses the general election, will the yearning among some primary voters to nominate a woman the next time around, in 2020, be intensified, or subdued?  Obviously, it's hard to say without seeing how the campaign plays out, but is there a scenario in which she loses, and people blame it in part on the voters not being ready for a female candidate, or something like that?
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2014, 04:11:48 PM »

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2014, 05:16:58 PM »

Kristen Gilibrand (Post-Obama Senator, Represents milestone Democrats want, Political savvy+ media connections)

That raises an interesting question.  If Clinton is the 2016 Democratic nominee, but loses the general election, will the yearning among some primary voters to nominate a woman the next time around, in 2020, be intensified, or subdued?  Obviously, it's hard to say without seeing how the campaign plays out, but is there a scenario in which she loses, and people blame it in part on the voters not being ready for a female candidate, or something like that?

If Hillary loses, I suspect the party would still be happy to nominate a woman, although the intensity would be subdued.

There are a few other arguments against Hillary that might not apply to Gillibrand. It might be argued that Hillary was too closely associated with Obama, or too old, or had too much baggage, or a poor campaigner, or maybe that she was just a victim of circumstances that would have just as easily sunk O'Malley and Cuomo.

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.
If Warren wants the nomination, 2016 is her best shot.

By 2020, there will be more Democrats with appeal to progressive activists. There was a description of the new class of 2012 as including a few of the most liberal Senators ever (Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy, Mazie Hirono, Brian Schatz, Tammy Baldwin.) By 2020, Murphy, and Schatz could be plausible nominees. Baldwin would represent major milestones with a record that makes activists happy, while also having decent establishment credentials (Elected to Congress in 1998, Defeated in a former Governor in an open election in a swing states) to appease more cautious Dems.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2014, 03:11:37 PM »

Kristen Gilibrand (Post-Obama Senator, Represents milestone Democrats want, Political savvy+ media connections)

That raises an interesting question.  If Clinton is the 2016 Democratic nominee, but loses the general election, will the yearning among some primary voters to nominate a woman the next time around, in 2020, be intensified, or subdued?  Obviously, it's hard to say without seeing how the campaign plays out, but is there a scenario in which she loses, and people blame it in part on the voters not being ready for a female candidate, or something like that?

If Hillary loses, I suspect the party would still be happy to nominate a woman, although the intensity would be subdued.

There are a few other arguments against Hillary that might not apply to Gillibrand. It might be argued that Hillary was too closely associated with Obama, or too old, or had too much baggage, or a poor campaigner, or maybe that she was just a victim of circumstances that would have just as easily sunk O'Malley and Cuomo.

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.
If Warren wants the nomination, 2016 is her best shot.

By 2020, there will be more Democrats with appeal to progressive activists. There was a description of the new class of 2012 as including a few of the most liberal Senators ever (Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy, Mazie Hirono, Brian Schatz, Tammy Baldwin.) By 2020, Murphy, and Schatz could be plausible nominees. Baldwin would represent major milestones with a record that makes activists happy, while also having decent establishment credentials (Elected to Congress in 1998, Defeated in a former Governor in an open election in a swing states) to appease more cautious Dems.

I think she can wait if she wants to. The fact that she has built up a large following within the party, and is becoming, if not already is, the face of the populist wing are factors that I think give her an advantage over the other names you mentioned.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2014, 10:53:04 PM »

*bump*

OK, I guess Charlie Crist isn't going to happen.  What about other options?  Now that we've seen who won in 2014, do any of the recent winners from this year look like possible 2020 presidential candidates?
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2014, 12:03:50 AM »

Republicans had more wins, so more of the focus will be on that party.

Bruce Rauner's a businessman elected Governor of that big state next to Iowa. Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker could also be re-elected Governors by the time the 2020 race kicks off. Doug Ducey had the advantage of being CEO of a name brand (Cold Stone Creamery) before becoming Governor of Arizona.
Cory Gardner, Tom Cotton, Thom Tillis and Joni Ernst are potential candidates, and already established to be quite ambitious. Tillis is demographically the least appealing, but he had an impressive rise, becoming speaker of a state body four years after joining it, and becoming Senator four years after that.

On the Democratic side, Gary Peters is unlikely to stand out in comparison to Senators elected in 2012. Tom Wolf will likely be too old.
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Orser67
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2014, 04:15:37 AM »

These are good lists. The only Dem name I might add based on 2014 is Gina Raimondo.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2014, 12:38:40 PM »

I see the 2020 GOP looking a lot more like Gardner, Martinez, Paul and Sandoval than Huckabee, Santorum and Gingrich, thankfully.  I think Democrats will eventually fall in line behind Warren, and if DLC types want to retain influence in the party, they'll have to ensure their own version of Tea Party vs. Establishment.  So, I could see something like Elizabeth Warren (or someone equally populist) vs. a Cory Gardner type, which could actually make for some interesting mini-realignment.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2014, 01:08:28 PM »

Tom Cotton will be President at some point.
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TNF
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2014, 01:21:49 PM »

These are good lists. The only Dem name I might add based on 2014 is Gina Raimondo.

That would go with the general rightward drift of the party, yes.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2014, 08:06:30 PM »
« Edited: January 02, 2015, 12:10:55 PM by Mister Mets »

The biggest thing to happen for the Democratic party in 2014 might be the nomination and confirmation of Julian Castro as HUD Secretary.

It's a plausible springboard for a presidential bid, and Castro would be a demographically appealing candidate for Democrats. He could excite Hispanic voters in Nevada, Colorado and Florida, and help with Texas fundraisers, while also encouraging Republicans to alienate a growing minority group.

He'll also have limited baggage, and as he won't hold any office, he'll have greater flexibility in terms of issues to emphasize.

He seems like a good candidate if a Republican President is vulnerable, or cruising to reelection. A loss with him could be better for Democrats than a loss with the second female nominee/ the second African-American nominee/ a generic white guy.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2014, 06:59:20 PM »

Very predictably, I am now eyeing Joe Kennedy III for 2020 or 2024.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2014, 03:28:47 AM »

Andrew Cuomo isn't going to get anywhere near the Democratic presidential nomination. He has managed to piss off every constituency into the party, locally and nationally.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #19 on: December 18, 2014, 11:39:10 AM »

Here is who I think will run for the Republican and Democratic nominations in 2020 (assuming that Hillary Clinton wins in 2016 and opts not to run for re-election):

Republicans:
Cory Gardner
Tom Cotton
Mike Pence
Raul Labrador
Charlie Baker
Larry Hogan
Bruce Rauner
Ted Cruz
Joni Ernst
Thom Tillis
Nikki Haley
Kelly Ayotte (assuming that she is re-elected in 2016)
Chris Christie
Scott Walker
Susana Martinez
Rand Paul
Brian Sandolval
Bill Haslam

Democrats:
Julian Castro
Elizabeth Warren
Kirsten Gillibrand
Amy Klobuchar
Chris Murphy
Patrick Murphy
Brian Shatz
Tammy Baldwin
Roy Cooper (assuming that he wins the North Carolina gubernatorial election in 2016)
Steve Bullock
Tim Kaine
Mark Warner
Cory Booker
Andrew Cuomo

I feel that Cory Gardner, Rand Paul and Tom Cotton have the best shot at winning the Republican nomination and might pick either Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Susana Martinez or Brian Sandolval as their running mate. On the Democratic side, Kirsten Gillibrand and Andrew Cuomo seem to be the most likely nominees as of today. As for their running mate choice, I feel that they will go with either Julian Castro or Cory Booker.
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2015, 08:14:11 PM »

I think that Rand Paul will be the runner-up in 2016 and then get the nomination in 2020 as the "next guy in line." Maybe a Paul-Portman or Paul-Huntsman ticket to represent the new Republican Party as Part Libertarian and Part Socially Moderate.

I also could definitely see a clash between the centrist and progressive wings of the Democratic Party in a Republican wins scenario. It's inevitably going to happen and probably would be happening this time around if not for the fact that Hillary seems to be uniting all wings of the party prematurely.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #21 on: January 01, 2015, 08:32:41 PM »

With a Republican incumbent, Elizabeth Warren and then Booker or Gillibrand tied for a distant second

With a Democratic incumbent, Paul, Sandoval or maybe McCrory or Martinez.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2015, 08:44:05 PM »

I also could definitely see a clash between the centrist and progressive wings of the Democratic Party in a Republican wins scenario. It's inevitably going to happen and probably would be happening this time around if not for the fact that Hillary seems to be uniting all wings of the party prematurely.

If Hillary wasn't a factor, I could definitely see 2016 turning into a "Warren vs. Cuomo" clash of the titans. But looks like that will have to wait until either 2020 or 2024, probably with two different people representing each side (Warren will be too old and Cuomo will be old news by then).

Anyway, some possible contenders:

Dems:
Gillibrand
Klobuchar
Booker
Castro
Kaine

Reps:
Cotton
Gardner
Rubio
Walker
Paul
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #23 on: January 01, 2015, 08:55:00 PM »

Think that Huntsman will get in again?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2015, 01:11:23 PM »

Jon Huntsman's best bet is to go for the Senate in either 2016 or 2018 IMO.
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