possible 2020 presidential candidates
Mr. Morden:
Barring some unforeseen circumstances, we'll have an incumbent president running for reelection in 2020. Who from the opposition party will run for their party's nomination in 2020?
If a Republican is elected in 2016, then some possible Dem. candidates for 2020:
Cory Booker
Charlie Crist
Andrew Cuomo
Kirsten Gillibrand
Maggie Hassan
John Hickenlooper
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Jay Nixon
Martin O'Malley
Deval Patrick
Brian Schweitzer
Antonio Villaraigosa
Elizabeth Warren (she'll be over 70 by 2020, but still probably leading the early 2020 Democratic primary polls, so can't count her out)
If a Democrat is elected in 2016, then some possible GOP candidates for 2020:
Kelly Ayotte
Chris Christie
Tom Cotton
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Bobby Jindal
Mike Lee
Susana Martinez
Rand Paul
Mike Pence
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Rick Snyder
John Thune
Scott Walker
Blue3:
Out of the Republicans on your list:
Cruz
Paul
Rubio
Out of the Democrats on your list:
Gillibrand
eric82oslo:
Julian & Joaquin Castro
Any number of females (especially Gillibrand)
Probably some other latinos/latinas as well
Mister Mets:
This is an interesting question, especially since recent presidential elections favored relative newcomers. George W Bush was elected President six years after becoming Governor, while Barack Obama had been Senator for four years. Oddly enough, presidential losers tend to have been in elected office longer (Dole had been a Senator for 28 years, Gore had been elected to the Senate sixteen years earlier, Kerry had been a Senator for 20 years, McCain had been a Senator for 22 years, Romney had run for Senate 18 years earlier and was elected Governor ten years earlier) although there are all sorts of convoluted reasons for that.
Strong contenders for the Democratic nomination...
Cory Booker (African-American with New York media market ties, combination of executive and legislative experience, avoidance of old conflicts)
Andrew Cuomo (Big-State Governor)
Kristen Gilibrand (Post-Obama Senator, Represents milestone Democrats want, Political savvy+ media connections)
Jay Nixon seems like a bland former Governor, the type who runs but doesn't have much impact. Klobuchar will have problems standing out in this crowd. I don't see what Hassan offers.
Crist might run but he was a former Republican, so I can't see the base supporting him. Hickenlooper is likely too old. Deval Patrick will have been out of office for some time, and got less than fifty percent when running for reelection in Massachusetts. Villariagosa's older, never elected to statewide office, has a messy personal life and a questionable record as mayor. I can't see anyone getting excited for O'Malley, although he may be a Senator at that point. Schweitzer will have been out of office for eight years.
It's always possible for Senators and former officeholders to do something that impresses the base, or gets them mentioned as potential Presidents.
I'd keep my eye on Chris Murphy as he's a younger Senator, in a party that likes nominating guys under fifty. There's also an opening for a relative newcomer with a liberal record. I could also see Tammy Baldwin running, since her record appeals to the base, and it would represent several milestones. Bill De Blasio's also one of the most prominent new progressives, but he'll have a tough time getting reelected.
If Michelle Nunn, or Alison Grimes is elected Senator, they would certainly be possibilities.
If Angel Taveras can be elected Governor of Rhode Island, he would be the Democratic party's most prominent Hispanic officeholders, although it took him a while to marry the mother of his daughter.
Mister Mets:
Republicans have more of a tendency to nominate officials who have been in office for a while. Anyone who currently holds elected office, and has shot of finishing in the top three in the 2016 presidential primary will probably be a plausible presidential candidate, so I agree with the initial list.
I'd add a few more.
Brian Sandoval- Interested in running for Senate in Nevada. Can make a strong claim for electability if a weak candidate loses in a Goldwater-esque landslide.
Darrell Issa- Not that he'll win, but he's ambitious and getting older. I think he'll run at some point even if he's unlikely to do better than Duncan Hunter.
Pat Toomey- Swing state Senator who was once a favorite of movement conservatives.
Karen Handel- If she's elected Senator from Georgia.
Greg Abbot- Likely big-state Governor with inspiring story.
Ben Sasse- Young movement conservative with impressive academic credentials.
Bruce Rauner- Businessman who might be the next Governor of Illinois.
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