No one really wants this to happen.
Very true.
And yet it still seems like the logical conclusion in the long run. Countries that are so clearly divided are difficult to hold together. Especially because the two parts are roughly equal in strength.
What do you see as the alternatives? Will the East and South become more Ukrainian in time?
They are quote Ukrainian as it is. They just have a somewhat distinc view of what it means.
Yeah, thats an important point. To clarify a bit: In a late 90s paper British Ukraine-expert Andrew Wilson predicted Ukrainian identity could move in three different directions.
1. A Canada-like state with its own Russophone or Ukrainophone Quebec. In this case either the Gallician version of ethnic anti-Russian Ukrainian nationalism or the Donbass/South/Crimea russophones are marginalized, but left in control of their own province(s). At this point the marginalization of Gallicia is off the table.
2. Slow Ukrainization leading to a consolidation around Dnieper-nationalism i.e. an identity that recognizes the importance of shared East Slavic traditions and history, but considers the Ukrainian language to be central to Ukrainian identity.
3. A continuation and redefinition of the overlapping Ukrainian and Russian identities that currently make up the "other Ukraine." (his name for the panslavist (and/or
more or less Russophile) Ukrainian identity where language isn't an important identity marker).
What I mean by Ukrainization is the spread of Dniepr nationalism to parts of the east and south diminishing the "Other Ukraine" and perhaps leading to "Quebec-status" for Crimea and Donbass in the end.