Would eastern and western Ukraine be better off going their separate ways?
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  Would eastern and western Ukraine be better off going their separate ways?
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Question: Would eastern and western Ukraine be better off going their separate ways?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: Would eastern and western Ukraine be better off going their separate ways?  (Read 20266 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #25 on: February 23, 2014, 10:18:52 PM »

I'm going to assume western Ukraine is more fiscally conservative, and eastern Ukraine is more socially conservative?

Western Ukraine is fiscally conservative but socially liberal whereas eastern Ukraine is split between constitutional conservatives, bold progressive voices, and straight-talking mavericks with independent streaks a mile wide. Geopolitics 101, my friend.
Thanks, Smiley

Yanukovych was thought to be one of the straight-talking mavericks, but turned out to be more of a PORINO.

Yanukovich was always known to be a common thief. "Straight-talking" is a bit of an exaggeration - his capacity for human speech is rather limited (I mean, he is not Brezhnev, but it is hard to imagine him saying anything that anyone may find exciting).

How do you say "When the President does it, that means it's not illegal?" in Russian?

On the OP: No.
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ag
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« Reply #26 on: February 23, 2014, 10:41:18 PM »

I'm going to assume western Ukraine is more fiscally conservative, and eastern Ukraine is more socially conservative?

Concepts that are completely meaningless in Ukrainian context.

The major fault lines are somewhat linguistic/ religious. But, really, they have to do with competition among local elites (which are, indeed, in part divided linguistically/religiously).

The West (especially Halicia and thereabouts), which had never been part of a Russian empire before WWII, is overwhelmingly Greek Catholic (i.e., they use a Byzantine  Rite and their priests are married, but they recognize the Pope), Ukrainian speaking, fairly rural (few major cities besides Lviv) and thinks of itself as part of Central Europe. It is not particularly socially liberal at all, though a pro-European orientation might force some movement in that direction. Nor is it very "fiscally conservative"- I am not sure anybody in Ukraine would even understand those words. One thing for sure: major Ukrainian business is not there.

There is, actually, quite a bit of variation there. Volyn has some Russian Orthodox enclaves (reflected in voting patterns). Transcarpathia is not really Ukrainian at all (many minorities, including Hungarians and the like; substantial late Russian migration; many indigenous Slavic locals tending to self-identify as Rusyn - a language of its own, and a separate Catholic rite from the Ukrainians).

The center (Kiev and vicinity) is quite another matter. Though this is the Ukrainian heartland, most urban dwellers tend to use more Russian than Ukrainian in their daily life. They, however, are generally fluent in Ukrainian and solidly identify as Ukrainians, not Russians.  Religiously the area is, mostly, Orthodox - but big chunk of that is Ukrainian Orthodox (mainly, Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kiev Patriarchate).  Kiev, surprisingly for an ancient capital, does not at all dominate the country (it is simply not big enough), but it is a major symbol.

The  East is more industrial and urban and tends to think of itself as Russian-speaking (though, except in Crimea, not Russian). To the extent they are religious (much less so than in the West), they are Russian Orthodox (the so-called Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate). Donetsk/Luhansk are mining areas (mainly coal), with all that this implies (very blue-collar, populist, somewhat socially reactionary, very obscure in terms of financial flows (some major business barons are from there). Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk are more intellectual/industrial. Very important big business there. And that business has major links with Russia. But it does not want to be IN Russia.

The South... That is another story. Part of that story is a major population change in fairly recent history. You know, Odessa was mostly Jewish not that long ago...

Crimea, of course, is most obvious victim of population change. Stalin kicked out the native Tartars and replaced them with Russians. There are few Ukrainians there, it is true. But there is a non-Ukrainian group there that is vehemently pro-Ukrainian (and, actually, anti-Russian): the Tartars. Throughout the Soviet years they fought to be allowed back - though relatively few made it. As the Soviet Union was breaking up, they came under further pressure in Central Asia where they had been living in exile (there were some nasty pogroms there) - and Ukraine let them back. They may be under 15% of the population in Crimea - but they are the natives. And they will fight to keep their land Ukrainian.
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Nathan
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« Reply #27 on: February 23, 2014, 10:56:36 PM »

I'm going to assume western Ukraine is more fiscally conservative, and eastern Ukraine is more socially conservative?

Western Ukraine is fiscally conservative but socially liberal whereas eastern Ukraine is split between constitutional conservatives, bold progressive voices, and straight-talking mavericks with independent streaks a mile wide. Geopolitics 101, my friend.
Thanks, Smiley

Yanukovych was thought to be one of the straight-talking mavericks, but turned out to be more of a PORINO.

Yanukovich was always known to be a common thief. "Straight-talking" is a bit of an exaggeration - his capacity for human speech is rather limited (I mean, he is not Brezhnev, but it is hard to imagine him saying anything that anyone may find exciting).

I was being entirely facetious.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #28 on: February 23, 2014, 11:16:38 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2014, 11:18:16 PM by Franknburger »

Just to add a bit: A main feature of Central Ukraine (I experienced it when working in Cherkassy, but it extends further south towards at least Zaporozhe)  is the Cossack history and identity. Cossacks were free, independent farmers with the obligation to defend Russia's southern border against the Osman Empire, in exchange for the right to local self-rule. Unlike most of the rural population in Russia proper, they were never subject to servitude.
The status changed massively with Stalin's collectivisation in the mid-1930s, and a good part of the local elite (which were rather medium-scale family farmers than large-scale landowners) was sent to Siberia. This is one of the reasons German troops during WW II were initially, as in the Baltics, often cheered as "liberators", though that appreciation changed over time. In any case, the fact that collectivisation took place considerably later than in other parts of the Soviet Union means that many people have still been able to learn from their grand-parents about the family business/ farm, and local self-rule in pre-Stalinist times. As such, Central Ukraine is in many respects closer to Central Europe and the Baltics than to other parts of the Soviet Union that neither had such traditions, nor the opportunity of the current generation to learn from their grand-parents experience how life before Stalin was different.
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ag
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« Reply #29 on: February 23, 2014, 11:43:04 PM »

Another interesting point is the difference between the Cossack identity in Russia and in Ukraine. In Russia Cossacks were regularized and militarized long back. Though originally free settlers, in later years these were armed farmers, on call to the regular army. In today´s Russia Cossack identity, if anything, correlates with high levels of pro-government "patriotism".
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Cathcon
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« Reply #30 on: February 23, 2014, 11:52:15 PM »

Would northern and southern United States be better off going their separate ways?

After all, their economies differ significantly. In the north, what you have is an economy that's shifting towards industrialization, while the south seems Hellbent on sticking with 'King Cotton'. Economies aside, the south is culturally and political different as well. While you have the planter elite, slaves, and 'crackers' below the Mason-Dixon line, to its north is a much more open, free, and diverse society. Slavery, obviously, is one of the big issues that divides these two different regions, but there is much more.

If you look at the last election, it could be said that the country isn't even holding the same elections! While Lincoln battled Douglas in the north, Bell was Breckenridge's only opposition for the slave states.


Ultimately, I think that the north and the south should simply part on good terms. They obviously are too different to form one nation, and I don't think anything's going to ever change that."
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« Reply #31 on: February 24, 2014, 12:01:37 AM »

The defense of the current borders seems to ignore the much more important geopolitical reality. Russia conquered the Crimea to gain access to the Black Sea. They built their southern naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea. Until the Russian Revolution no one would have thought of Crimea as part of Ukraine and even today there are few Ukrainians there. When the USSR collapsed Ukraine inherited Crimea through its USSR administrative borders, borders that had only existed for about 80 years.

This particular border is much younger than that; the Crimea was only transferred to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #32 on: February 24, 2014, 12:22:40 AM »

You could say that the south is more socially conservative while the north is more fiscally conservative.
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ag
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« Reply #33 on: February 24, 2014, 12:51:56 AM »

The defense of the current borders seems to ignore the much more important geopolitical reality. Russia conquered the Crimea to gain access to the Black Sea. They built their southern naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea. Until the Russian Revolution no one would have thought of Crimea as part of Ukraine and even today there are few Ukrainians there. When the USSR collapsed Ukraine inherited Crimea through its USSR administrative borders, borders that had only existed for about 80 years.

This particular border is much younger than that; the Crimea was only transferred to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954.

Barely 10 years after the native population of Crimea had been expelled by Stalin.
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ag
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« Reply #34 on: February 24, 2014, 12:54:28 AM »

I really want to be mistaken. I would give A LOT to be mistaken. But...

Anyway, the Russian ambassador has been recalled from Kiev. There are certain (admittedly, unconfirmed) reports that the military is getting ready. I would not at all be surprised, if within the next week we are going to have Russian troops in Ukraine (at least, in Crimea - possibly, elsewhere as well).

God, I really want to be proven wrong on this one...
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #35 on: February 24, 2014, 01:24:32 AM »

No.

I'd much rather than subject the entire country to Western influence than only half of it.

The neoliberals will win out - Ukraine will join the EU and NATO within the next few years.  U.S. dominance in Eastern Europe will shortly be assured. 
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Franknburger
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« Reply #36 on: February 24, 2014, 05:16:31 AM »

I really want to be mistaken. I would give A LOT to be mistaken. But...

Anyway, the Russian ambassador has been recalled from Kiev. There are certain (admittedly, unconfirmed) reports that the military is getting ready. I would not at all be surprised, if within the next week we are going to have Russian troops in Ukraine (at least, in Crimea - possibly, elsewhere as well).

God, I really want to be proven wrong on this one...

The Russian ambassador being recalled may mean various things, e.g. simple reporting on the current situation, and discussing what to do now (with the side effect of having him out should the situation in Kiev escalate again). I could also imagine some leading politicians in Moscow not being too pleased with his performance - he obviously bet on the wrong horse.

Spiegel reports about a longer telephone talk between Putin and Merkel yesterday afternoon. According to Merkel's speaker, both have agreed that "Ukraine quickly needs to get a government that can take action, and Ukraine's territorial integrity shall be maintained". She also phoned to Timoschenko, encouraging her to "engage in favour of Ukraine's cohesion and reach out to the people in the east (of Ukraine)". She furthermore suggested Timoschenko to focus on recovering from her health problems and invited her for medical treatment in Germany. Anybody who has yet missed the message is invited to look at this Spiegel article headlined "Merkel regards Timoschenko with sceptics" (even if you don't understand German, check out the photo!)

German foreign minister Steimeier meanwhile has in a Spiegel interview lauded Putin's special emissary, Wladimir Lukin, who arrived in Kiev at 2 am on the night from Thursday to Friday, for constructively having participated in the search for solutions of the crisis: "The Russian delegate has helped to build bridges and co-signed the joint resolution (that effectively ousted Janukovich)". Steimeier's, Fabius' and Sikorski's trip to Ukraine has apparently been decided on short notice, following Steinmeier's visit to Moscow last week. Polish foreign minister Sikorski is reported to have interrupted his winter holidays in Austria for the trip.

All this is rather indicating a more relaxed Russian approach towards regime change in Ukraine, than intention for military intervention.
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ag
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« Reply #37 on: February 24, 2014, 05:53:35 AM »

I am afraid, you might be underestimating how serious it is. The troops seem to be on the move. Trusting Putin's words is not something I would ever do.

Lukin's role is a case in point. Personally, he is a decent man, but he is not somebody at all privy to any secrets or representative of anyone. He is not close to Putin or to anybody else with real power. Sending him was a statement of no commitment to anything: Putin's press secretary explicitly said that he was going in merely his own capacity. Lukin knew that: that is why he refused signing anything - he could not, really, as he was no envoy of anyone. I would easily believe, Lukin was trying to be reasonable and helpful. But the fact that it was him who was sent is very troubling, actually. It might mean that a decision not to talk but to act unilaterally has been taken already.

I am afraid, we may be on the eve of a Munich. Or worse.
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« Reply #38 on: February 24, 2014, 06:02:30 AM »

No one really wants this to happen.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #39 on: February 24, 2014, 06:17:11 AM »

I am afraid, you might be underestimating how serious it is. The troops seem to be on the move. Trusting Putin's words is not something I would ever do.

Lukin's role is a case in point. Personally, he is a decent man, but he is not somebody at all privy to any secrets or representative of anyone. He is not close to Putin or to anybody else with real power. Sending him was a statement of no commitment to anything: Putin's press secretary explicitly said that he was going in merely his own capacity. Lukin knew that: that is why he refused signing anything - he could not, really, as he was no envoy of anyone. I would easily believe, Lukin was trying to be reasonable and helpful. But the fact that it was him who was sent is very troubling, actually. It might mean that a decision not to talk but to act unilaterally has been taken already.

I am afraid, we may be on the eve of a Munich. Or worse.

lol
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ag
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« Reply #40 on: February 24, 2014, 06:17:12 AM »


I have no doubt, no decent person wants this to happen. I am less certain about the Russian government.

Hope to be very wrong on this one.
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« Reply #41 on: February 24, 2014, 06:28:44 AM »


I have no doubt, no decent person wants this to happen. I am less certain about the Russian government.

Hope to be very wrong on this one.

Actually, I think the Russians are the least enthusiastic about the idea. They want all of Ukraine in their sphere of influence.
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muon2
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« Reply #42 on: February 24, 2014, 08:03:00 AM »


The South... That is another story. Part of that story is a major population change in fairly recent history. You know, Odessa was mostly Jewish not that long ago...

Crimea, of course, is most obvious victim of population change. Stalin kicked out the native Tartars and replaced them with Russians. There are few Ukrainians there, it is true. But there is a non-Ukrainian group there that is vehemently pro-Ukrainian (and, actually, anti-Russian): the Tartars. Throughout the Soviet years they fought to be allowed back - though relatively few made it. As the Soviet Union was breaking up, they came under further pressure in Central Asia where they had been living in exile (there were some nasty pogroms there) - and Ukraine let them back. They may be under 15% of the population in Crimea - but they are the natives. And they will fight to keep their land Ukrainian.

So it sounds like Stalin expels the Tatars and replaces them with Russians. A decade later Khrushchev shifts this Russian population into the Ukrainian SSR. If this were US politics it would look like a classic gerrymander to move a block of favorable residents (Crimean Russians) into a district with less reliable residents (Ukrainians).
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« Reply #43 on: February 24, 2014, 08:12:19 AM »


The South... That is another story. Part of that story is a major population change in fairly recent history. You know, Odessa was mostly Jewish not that long ago...

Crimea, of course, is most obvious victim of population change. Stalin kicked out the native Tartars and replaced them with Russians. There are few Ukrainians there, it is true. But there is a non-Ukrainian group there that is vehemently pro-Ukrainian (and, actually, anti-Russian): the Tartars. Throughout the Soviet years they fought to be allowed back - though relatively few made it. As the Soviet Union was breaking up, they came under further pressure in Central Asia where they had been living in exile (there were some nasty pogroms there) - and Ukraine let them back. They may be under 15% of the population in Crimea - but they are the natives. And they will fight to keep their land Ukrainian.

So it sounds like Stalin expels the Tatars and replaces them with Russians. A decade later Khrushchev shifts this Russian population into the Ukrainian SSR. If this were US politics it would look like a classic gerrymander to move a block of favorable residents (Crimean Russians) into a district with less reliable residents (Ukrainians).

Stalin would be a great gerrymanderer had he lived in the U.S.
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politicus
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« Reply #44 on: February 24, 2014, 09:27:47 AM »


Very true.

And yet it still seems like the logical conclusion in the long run. Countries that are so clearly divided are difficult to hold together. Especially because the two parts are roughly equal in strength.

What do you see as the alternatives? Will the East and South become more Ukrainian in time?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #45 on: February 24, 2014, 09:54:05 AM »

The main issue preventing it,is the fact there is no clear place where to draw the border.
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ag
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« Reply #46 on: February 24, 2014, 10:11:04 AM »
« Edited: February 24, 2014, 10:13:15 AM by ag »


The South... That is another story. Part of that story is a major population change in fairly recent history. You know, Odessa was mostly Jewish not that long ago...

Crimea, of course, is most obvious victim of population change. Stalin kicked out the native Tartars and replaced them with Russians. There are few Ukrainians there, it is true. But there is a non-Ukrainian group there that is vehemently pro-Ukrainian (and, actually, anti-Russian): the Tartars. Throughout the Soviet years they fought to be allowed back - though relatively few made it. As the Soviet Union was breaking up, they came under further pressure in Central Asia where they had been living in exile (there were some nasty pogroms there) - and Ukraine let them back. They may be under 15% of the population in Crimea - but they are the natives. And they will fight to keep their land Ukrainian.

So it sounds like Stalin expels the Tatars and replaces them with Russians. A decade later Khrushchev shifts this Russian population into the Ukrainian SSR. If this were US politics it would look like a classic gerrymander to move a block of favorable residents (Crimean Russians) into a district with less reliable residents (Ukrainians).

The real reason was that Russians, given their agricultural patterns, needed a lot more water. and the water was only to be had from Ukraine (there is no land connection to Russia). So, it was a purely engineering/ management decision, clothed as it was in some brotherly love verbiage.
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ag
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« Reply #47 on: February 24, 2014, 10:12:35 AM »


Very true.

And yet it still seems like the logical conclusion in the long run. Countries that are so clearly divided are difficult to hold together. Especially because the two parts are roughly equal in strength.

What do you see as the alternatives? Will the East and South become more Ukrainian in time?

They are quote Ukrainian as it is. They just have a somewhat distinc view of what it means.
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« Reply #48 on: February 24, 2014, 11:55:40 AM »

Western Ukraine should join Poland, then they can create a Polish-Ukrainian commonwealth, stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea!
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« Reply #49 on: February 24, 2014, 05:59:09 PM »

Russia putting troops into Ukraine is very, very, very unlikely, unless the streets are in open revolt and they are 'invited' to enter. Which, with Yanukovich now out of office, is unlikely to happen (and was never likely in the first place).

Ukraine will sort itself out eventually.
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