Would eastern and western Ukraine be better off going their separate ways?

[Californiadreaming]

Indeed, if I was a pro-Russian Ukrainian voter in late 1991, I would have certainly still voted to have Ukraine secede from the USSR. After all, back in late 1991, I would have very likely perceived living under a democratizing former Communist Ukrainian elite (led by Leonid Kravchuk) as being better than continuing to live in the Soviet Union and thus putting myself and the rest of the Ukrainian people at risk if another coup attempt will occur in the USSR.

[Californiadreaming]

That was 23 years ago. It's possible that even with the Tatars that Crimea would want to separate.

Yes, I agree. The current will of the people on Crimea (to the extent circumstances allow for a representative assessment of their will, which I have some doubts about) needs to be respected. But a lot of the discussion is about historical claims, and in this respect, a referendum 23 years ago is more significant that political decisions taken in Moscow between 1921 and 1954.

Agreed. However, given the circumstances in late 1991 (specifically the possibility that a rump USSR will continue to exist even without Ukraine and the fear of another (eventual) coup attempt in the USSR--as my parents themselves have told me on numerous occasions), I certainly think that a new sovereignty referendum in Crimea is warranted.

[Californiadreaming]

That was 23 years ago. It's possible that even with the Tatars that Crimea would want to separate.

Completely agreed. Indeed, the December 1991 Ukrainian independence referendum occurred in very unique circumstances and represented a significant shift from the March 1991 referendum in Ukraine, where a majority of Ukrainian voters outside of Galicia and Kiev (Kyiv) voted to remain within the Soviet Union:



Thus, given the changed political and economic circumstances since December 1991, I certainly think that a new sovereignty referendum in Crimea is both warranted and desirable.

[Californiadreaming]

I insist: where do we put the frontier?

According to ethnic Russians? According to Russian-speakers? According to political preferences?

I presume the idea would be to follow the fairly obvious line on the election maps, separating Crimea plus the oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa.  But would that really be any sort of coherent state?  Even on election results it isn't as clean a divide as it looks at first glance.

How about holding referendums in all of these areas instead and then drawing the borders based on the results of these referendums (just like, say, in Schleswig in 1920 or in Upper Silesia in 1921)?