Is Virginia now the Democratic Missouri?

[stevekamp]

To commenters saying Rs can win Virginia by a "supercharged" rural turnout: if you look at actual registrations between 2004 and 2012,  statewide registration rose by 910,853, but in the 76 (of 134) Rural Virginia jurisdictions, registration increased by only 156,513.

If one compares 2004 and 2012, one finds that there was an increase of only 41,225 registered non-voters in the 76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions, contrasted by the 195,938 increase in the 58 Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions.  Thus, if there is a "missing" vote, it's in Metro-VA, not Rural VA

Democrats Gained More Votes Than The Republicans in Rural Virginia Between 2004 and 2012

   Coal Country was the only Virginia region -- rural or metropolitan -- where the Democrats lost votes between 2004 and 2012 – all 12,433 of them. In the 21 Coal Country jurisdictions Democrats lost a net 12,433 and the Republicans gained a net 18,468.  The registered nonvoter increase in Coal Country was all of 3,466. Everywhere else, Democrats gained – in Rural Virginia, a total of 62,417 from the Shenandoah Valley (up 27,318), Appomattox (up 13,069), Southside (up 12,914) and Eastern Rural (up 9,016). The Rural Virginia raw gain of 62,417 was 12.07 percent of the 2004-2012 Democratic commonwealth gain of 517,078; the Rural Virginia net gain of 49,984 was 9.66 percent. In contrast, the Republican net gain of 36,365 was 34.44 percent of the Republican commonwealth gain of 105,563, but was outpaced by the net Democratic gain.  What Republicans gained in Coal Country (net plus 30,901), was ditched by almost half in the Confederate Republican Southside (down 2,600) and in the ancestrally Republican Shenandoah Valley (down 10,672). Republicans gained the most in Appomattox (plus 27,603), but only 3,566 in the Eastern Rural counties. When the dust settled, Democrats outpaced the Republicans in Rural Virginia net gained votes, 49,984 to 36,365.   

A close analysis of actual registration and actual voting in the 58 Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions between 2004 and 2012 shows that Democrats are gaining enough new votes in Metropolitan Virginia to the point that a 100 percent registered nonvoter turnout in the 76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions would not matter, because for Democrats: 
•   Richmond rocks – registration in Richmond City and the 18 suburban jurisdictions rose 154,007, the total vote rose 136,280, the Democratic Presidential raw vote rose 107,360, and the Republican Presidential raw vote rose by only 20,910 – resulting in a Democratic net gain of 86,450.
•   The nineteen-county Greater Richmond net Democratic gain of 86,450 add up to 57.90 percent of the 2012 Virginia Obama margin, and 21 percent of the 411,515 commonwealth margin shift between 2004 and 2012.
•   Hampton Roads is hyper -- in these 15 jurisdictions, registration rose by a net 174,912, the total vote rose by a 122,423, but the Republican raw vote fell by a net 8,569 – and the Democratic raw vote rose by a net 124,447. This net Democratic gain of 133,016 is 89.09 percent of the Obama 2012 Virginia margin, and 32.32 percent of. the commonwealth margin shift.
•   Northern Virginia has become the Super-NoVa in the commonwealth -- in the 24 NoVa jurisdictions (including the 2 University of Virginia and 11 Double-Republican exurban jurisdictions), registration rose by 417,190, the total vote rose by 293,338, and the Democratic Presidential raw vote rose by 233,827, whereas the Republican vote rose by only 41,242.  In the two University of Virginia and the 11 Double-Obama jurisdictions in Northern Virginia, the Democratic raw vote rose by 199,043 and the Republican rose by only 21,643.  Even in the 11 exurban Double-Republican jurisdictions, Democrats gained 34,744, whereas Republicans gained only 19,599. The Republican vote is static, and Democrats are moving in and up.  The Democratic margin of 192,385 from these 24 jurisdictions is the commonwealth-wide 2012 margin plus 43,087.


So, where in Rural Virginia are Rs going to make up these margins?  Between 2004 and 2012, the Dem vote increased by 517 T, Rs only by 105 T