Did the Romney campaign believe they would win at the end

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I don't really blame them for it. The polls were extremely consistent. Obama was leading the polls for almost every swing state, but those polls showed persistent, narrow victories. If there were systematic polling errors, it would have changed everything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP have a problem with the new map where NV and NM, in addition to Ohio, are shutting out the GOP, with Latinos. Jeb Bush's conversion, isn't gonna cut it. The GOP party has moved away from the Reagan model of earned pathway to citizenship. Huck or Walker will have to win despite their low Hispanic participation in the part of the GOP.

[Badger]

I don't really blame them for it. The polls were extremely consistent. Obama was leading the polls for almost every swing state, but those polls showed persistent, narrow victories. If there were systematic polling errors, it would have changed everything.

Yes, but they had no valid rational reason to believe in systemic polling errors beyond 'reasons'. If you're going to defy the numbers, you need to have a firm logic behind it. The Romney campaign had none beyond skewed polls bs.

In retrospect, this was the most concerning aspect of a Romney presidency. If the guy who built his career on 'management', you don't disregard numbers based on blind faith.

[DrScholl]

The numbers they were using were inaccurate, but they believed that they were accurate. Presumably, they messed up for the same reason that Gallup did, underestimating minority turnout. The assumption was that turnout would revert to 2004 levels, but in reality, it didn't and that's why the Romney campaign wrongly believed that they would win.

[hopper]

The GOP have a problem with the new map where NV and NM, in addition to Ohio, are shutting out the GOP, with Latinos. Jeb Bush's conversion, isn't gonna cut it. The GOP party has moved away from the Reagan model of earned pathway to citizenship. Huck or Walker will have to win despite their low Hispanic participation in the part of the GOP.

Um no Romney won 42% of the latino vote in Ohio and latinos are only make up 4% of Ohio's population. The latino vote isn't really a factor in Ohio.

NM isn't really gaining population like the rest of the Southwest States are(TX, CO, NV, UT and AZ.) When was the last time NM gained an electoral vote? Therefore It would be nice to win NM but its not critical in the log run. True I do agree with you on NV though.

Jeb Bush's conversion? What are you talking about?

The GOP as a party is divided on the issue of immigration reform not totally against it.

[Vega]

Yes, it's been well documented.

[Badger]

The numbers they were using were inaccurate, but they believed that they were accurate. Presumably, they messed up for the same reason that Gallup did, underestimating minority turnout. The assumption was that turnout would revert to 2004 levels, but in reality, it didn't and that's why the Romney campaign wrongly believed that they would win.

That rather reinforces my earlier point, though. In almost every model of likely voters, turnout was consistent with the actual results, but the Romney campaign chose to believe 'it's gut' or something.

@ Hopper re: Romney getting 42% of the OH Latino vote, be very wary of small susample size. There're very few concentrations of Latino voters outside Lorain County where they vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

[⛄]

Rachel Maddow summarized the GOP's denial of reality brilliantly:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S76tc1_4kw4

[Napoleon]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

LOL

What's really pathetic is the ridiculous fawning over the super-rich which seems to have become the norm in our societies.

[Mordecai]

I think the tipping point with that was just how out of touch Romney was with normal people (like suggesting people borrow money from their parents to start a business) and how he didn't really seem to care about people's problems (47% video), and how he became rich (Bain Capital), as opposed to just being rich.

He himself pointed out the latter (in the Mitt documentary I think, I don't remember where I saw it) when he once talked candidly about how his father was born in Mexico, grew up in humble circumstances, had no college degree, became CEO of American Motors, later Governor of Michigan and got to run for President. I thought it was interesting because it came across as a really humanizing moment.

I mean, look at George W. Bush. He had incredible advantages in life because of his father and he still managed to seem in touch with normal people, regardless of whether we think his policies were or were not. Romney didn't even have that.

Then he tried to downplay his advantaged upbringing with silly anecdotes, which in my opinion was the wrong move. He also tried to use his business experience to his advantage then ran away from the negative aspects of it. If he didn't want Bain Capital to be used against him he shouldn't have tried to run with it. But I guess he did that because the Tea Party had made healthcare reform toxic and that basically dominated his governorship.

Regardless of his policies and what I may think of him as a person, I think he could have characterized himself better as a candidate if he had acknowledged his success in life and the advantages he had from his father instead of running away from it.

Obama talked a lot about his family, I remember in the second debate when answering people's questions he mentioned his mother, his grandmother and his grandfather. Romney didn't really do that.

I guess because it creates a rather unfavorable comparison (American Motors vs. Bain Capital) and opens him up to attacks from both the left and the right. It would have been inspiring to hear it though.

[IceSpear]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

So you idolize people who got rich through no virtue of their own, but because they were born into the "correct" family? Do you honestly think Romney would have been as "successful" as he was if he was born into a poor inner city family instead?

Or are you just a trust fund baby and I struck a nerve?

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's pretty obvious that they did.  Interestingly, I have also read that Karl Rove and Bush initially thought they had lost in 2004.

[hopper]

I think it's pretty obvious that they did.  Interestingly, I have also read that Karl Rove and Bush initially thought they had lost in 2004.Kerr

Yeah I remember that cover of Tim Magazine in 2004 that I think said
"Kerry was going to be the next President Of The United States".

[Napoleon]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

So you idolize people who got rich through no virtue of their own, but because they were born into the "correct" family? Do you honestly think Romney would have been as "successful" as he was if he was born into a poor inner city family instead?

Or are you just a trust fund baby and I struck a nerve?

I don't idolize anyone but I'm also not a man-child that is going to live in resentment because someone's parents were this or that. But the way you jump out and try to frame this as if I am idolizing the rich shows that you're most likely unsuccessful and insecure about that. Get educated and do something with your life.

[windjammer]

(I'm a member of the middle class)

I agree with Napoleon, it would be useful for some persons not to judge on social class. Rick kids aren't inherently f****** bastards. You know, Marx wasn't a member of the "popular" class, Bluum was wealthy,... Some people should judge people on what they do of their life, and not on their parents.

However, I support of course every efforts to raise Estate tax, in order to improve our system. But "Rich kids" aren't the problem. It's the system. So your "lucky  sperm club" comment is awful.

[IceSpear]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

So you idolize people who got rich through no virtue of their own, but because they were born into the "correct" family? Do you honestly think Romney would have been as "successful" as he was if he was born into a poor inner city family instead?

Or are you just a trust fund baby and I struck a nerve?

I don't idolize anyone but I'm also not a man-child that is going to live in resentment because someone's parents were this or that. But the way you jump out and try to frame this as if I am idolizing the rich shows that you're most likely unsuccessful and insecure about that. Get educated and do something with your life.

"Live in resentment"? You sound like a delusional Republican. Someone offered their opinion on Romney, and I agreed and offered mine. You're the one who threw a hissy fit over it and started posting personal attacks. Sounds like you're just a really, really angry trust fund baby that thinks you were "successful" when in reality it was just because of mommy and daddy's cash and no talent of your own, just like Romney.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Conservatives always believe they're winning even when they're losing. Just like liberals always believe they're losing when they're winning.

[Person Man]

Do you think the Kerry campaign thought they would win at the end?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP tend to win very close elections like in 2000 and Dems tend to win a 50 state strategy campaign. When Dems make a mistake like Kerry did in not picking Bob Graham, it cost him the election. GOP circles, except for Palin, it isn't important.

[Oakvale]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

So you idolize people who got rich through no virtue of their own, but because they were born into the "correct" family? Do you honestly think Romney would have been as "successful" as he was if he was born into a poor inner city family instead?

Or are you just a trust fund baby and I struck a nerve?

I don't idolize anyone but I'm also not a man-child that is going to live in resentment because someone's parents were this or that. But the way you jump out and try to frame this as if I am idolizing the rich shows that you're most likely unsuccessful and insecure about that. Get educated and do something with your life.

"Live in resentment"? You sound like a delusional Republican. Someone offered their opinion on Romney, and I agreed and offered mine. You're the one who threw a hissy fit over it and started posting personal attacks. Sounds like you're just a really, really angry trust fund baby that thinks you were "successful" when in reality it was just because of mommy and daddy's cash and no talent of your own, just like Romney.

I hate to do this, since for the record Romney is clearly an awful person and would have made a disastrous President, but it's simply not true that he inherited all his money from his parents. Obviously he profited from a comfortable upbringing and education but it was Romney's own success in business ventures that made him obscenely wealthy.

[IceSpear]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

So you idolize people who got rich through no virtue of their own, but because they were born into the "correct" family? Do you honestly think Romney would have been as "successful" as he was if he was born into a poor inner city family instead?

Or are you just a trust fund baby and I struck a nerve?

I don't idolize anyone but I'm also not a man-child that is going to live in resentment because someone's parents were this or that. But the way you jump out and try to frame this as if I am idolizing the rich shows that you're most likely unsuccessful and insecure about that. Get educated and do something with your life.

"Live in resentment"? You sound like a delusional Republican. Someone offered their opinion on Romney, and I agreed and offered mine. You're the one who threw a hissy fit over it and started posting personal attacks. Sounds like you're just a really, really angry trust fund baby that thinks you were "successful" when in reality it was just because of mommy and daddy's cash and no talent of your own, just like Romney.

I hate to do this, since for the record Romney is clearly an awful person and would have made a disastrous President, but it's simply not true that he inherited all his money from his parents. Obviously he profited from a comfortable upbringing and education but it was Romney's own success in business ventures that made him obscenely wealthy.

Like I said, would he have been so successful if he was born into a poor black family in the inner city? Almost certainly not. He springboarded into his career off daddy's money and connections.

[Oakvale]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

So you idolize people who got rich through no virtue of their own, but because they were born into the "correct" family? Do you honestly think Romney would have been as "successful" as he was if he was born into a poor inner city family instead?

Or are you just a trust fund baby and I struck a nerve?

I don't idolize anyone but I'm also not a man-child that is going to live in resentment because someone's parents were this or that. But the way you jump out and try to frame this as if I am idolizing the rich shows that you're most likely unsuccessful and insecure about that. Get educated and do something with your life.

"Live in resentment"? You sound like a delusional Republican. Someone offered their opinion on Romney, and I agreed and offered mine. You're the one who threw a hissy fit over it and started posting personal attacks. Sounds like you're just a really, really angry trust fund baby that thinks you were "successful" when in reality it was just because of mommy and daddy's cash and no talent of your own, just like Romney.

I hate to do this, since for the record Romney is clearly an awful person and would have made a disastrous President, but it's simply not true that he inherited all his money from his parents. Obviously he profited from a comfortable upbringing and education but it was Romney's own success in business ventures that made him obscenely wealthy.

Like I said, would he have been so successful if he was born into a poor black family in the inner city? Almost certainly not. He springboarded into his career off daddy's money and connections.

Yes I'm aware of the shocking truth that your socioeconomic background greatly influences how your life turns out. That doesn't mean that Romney lacked talent.

By this logic literally anyone who wasn't born in a log cabin in the wilderness can never receive any credit for any accomplishment.

[IceSpear]

One thing that I will say that I encounter with people I know who vote is this Cleveland area blue collar attitude. They do not like rich people. See I'm the opposite. I am middle class, was raised middle class, but I really do like rich people. I envy them. I think many people who are older than myself who find themselves in, for lack of a better word, crappy jobs with little income and they're already middle aged, atleast subconsciously hold some ill-will towards those who are better off. I think it's how you look at things. I look at rich people and say, "If they can do it, we all can". Some look at rich people and say, "They're rich and I'm not so screw them."

It's a baby temper tantrum attitude but unfortunately many people in rust belt type areas have that mentality.

Romney didn't lift a finger to get as rich as he is. He just happened to have a rich father. Those who hold ill will towards Mitt Romney due to his riches have a point. Some people work all their lives and make nothing. Others, like Mittens, don't work at all and make millions.

Yup. I respect wealthy people who earned it on their own. Not those who became wealthy because they were a member of the lucky sperm club.

That's an incredibly pathetic and insecure way to judge others, but if you choose to let envy replace empathy then so be it. Not sure if you will get anywhere that way, but I'm sure its worked for someone down the line.

So you idolize people who got rich through no virtue of their own, but because they were born into the "correct" family? Do you honestly think Romney would have been as "successful" as he was if he was born into a poor inner city family instead?

Or are you just a trust fund baby and I struck a nerve?

I don't idolize anyone but I'm also not a man-child that is going to live in resentment because someone's parents were this or that. But the way you jump out and try to frame this as if I am idolizing the rich shows that you're most likely unsuccessful and insecure about that. Get educated and do something with your life.

"Live in resentment"? You sound like a delusional Republican. Someone offered their opinion on Romney, and I agreed and offered mine. You're the one who threw a hissy fit over it and started posting personal attacks. Sounds like you're just a really, really angry trust fund baby that thinks you were "successful" when in reality it was just because of mommy and daddy's cash and no talent of your own, just like Romney.

I hate to do this, since for the record Romney is clearly an awful person and would have made a disastrous President, but it's simply not true that he inherited all his money from his parents. Obviously he profited from a comfortable upbringing and education but it was Romney's own success in business ventures that made him obscenely wealthy.

Like I said, would he have been so successful if he was born into a poor black family in the inner city? Almost certainly not. He springboarded into his career off daddy's money and connections.

Yes I'm aware of the shocking truth that your socioeconomic background greatly influences how your life turns out. That doesn't mean that Romney lacked talent.

By this logic literally anyone who wasn't born in a log cabin in the wilderness can never receive any credit for any accomplishment.

Maybe Romney has talent. Maybe he doesn't. But it wouldn't make any difference, since his background guaranteed him success no matter what (see: Bush, George W.)

[hopper]

Do you think the Kerry campaign thought they would win at the end?

I have heard that people in Dem Circles during Election Day though that they would pull it off. Not sure if that is true or not.