Kansas-1988

[VPH]

Why did Dukakis perform so well in Kansas in 1988 compared to other states? Also, I realize that historically, Ellis County was a strong D county compared to the rest of Kansas, but what explains their unusually strong Democratic showing in 1988, a year where things weren't even very close?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why did Dukakis perform so well in Kansas in 1988 compared to other states? Also, I realize that historically, Ellis County was a strong D county compared to the rest of Kansas, but what explains their unusually strong Democratic showing in 1988, a year where things weren't even very close?

I once read that it was because people were disappointed that Bob Dole didn't get the Republican nomination.

[sg0508]

Farm crisis of the 80s.  If you look at the changes from '84 to '88, Bush lost his biggest chunks in the Plains. 

[VPH]

Ahh, that makes more sense in terms of rural communities. The Dole thing sounds interesting too. I wonder why Ellis Co. was historically Democratic for that matter. I read somewhere that it was a very Catholic-dem county. I mean, Hays also has a community college, but I'm not sure that's big enough to make a difference in historical voting patterns. 

[SingingAnalyst]

Devastation of the family farm under Reagan, as well as the belief that Bush 41 was too liberal and possibly the Antichrist.

[ElectionsGuy]

Devastation of the family farm under Reagan, as well as the belief that Bush 41 was too liberal and possibly the Antichrist.

[SingingAnalyst]

Bush the antichrist? Yeah Pat Robertson said so.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Devastation of the family farm under Reagan, as well as the belief that Bush 41 was too liberal and possibly the Antichrist.

So more an effect of religious right voters staying home then, because if they thought that Bush was too liberal there's no way in hell that they'd vote for a liberal heretic from MA.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Farm Crisis.

[bobloblaw]

1984 to 1988 is interesting.

Bush did much worse than Reagan in the Great Plains due to the farm crisis but Bush did slightly better in big city suburbs around NY, Chicago and Philly.

[Podgy the Bear]

In addition to the farm crisis--which was the catalyst for the Democratic resurgence in the Midwest states, the Democrats had a much stronger presence in the Plains in the 1980s and 1990s--on a statewide level.  For years, you had one or two Democratic senators in Nebraska and the Dakotas, and they elected several Democratic governors as well.  They  were generally more conservative than the national party, but they were widely accepted within the party and held leadership positions as well. 

[SingingAnalyst]

In addition to the farm crisis--which was the catalyst for the Democratic resurgence in the Midwest states, the Democrats had a much stronger presence in the Plains in the 1980s and 1990s--on a statewide level.  For years, you had one or two Democratic senators in Nebraska and the Dakotas, and they elected several Democratic governors as well.  They  were generally more conservative than the national party, but they were widely accepted within the party and held leadership positions as well. 

Good point. There is a whole slew of contiguous states--IA, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK--where Dukakis improved 10 points over Mondale. These states are also notable in that Clinton 92 did much worse than Dukakis, thus beginning the modern switch to these states (except IA) as solid GOP.

[Hydera]

In addition to the farm crisis--which was the catalyst for the Democratic resurgence in the Midwest states, the Democrats had a much stronger presence in the Plains in the 1980s and 1990s--on a statewide level.  For years, you had one or two Democratic senators in Nebraska and the Dakotas, and they elected several Democratic governors as well.  They  were generally more conservative than the national party, but they were widely accepted within the party and held leadership positions as well.  

I checked the employment stats for Iowa. and Iowa's economy slumped in 1979 and would not recover until May 1988. Which is as close to a decade as you can get. So by election day in November of 1988 a lot of people voted Dukakis as a protest vote.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IANAN

Ironically that farm crisis started as a result of the US banning agricultural exports to the USSR, an action undertaken by Carter. A lot of the great plains states and one even like North Dakota that Carter had lost by 6% in 1976 was lost by 38% in 1980.


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/B181RC1Q027SBEA


Agricultural exports peaked in 1981 and would halve by 1987 and would not recover until 1994. And boomed afterwards.

[bobloblaw]

In addition to the farm crisis--which was the catalyst for the Democratic resurgence in the Midwest states, the Democrats had a much stronger presence in the Plains in the 1980s and 1990s--on a statewide level.  For years, you had one or two Democratic senators in Nebraska and the Dakotas, and they elected several Democratic governors as well.  They  were generally more conservative than the national party, but they were widely accepted within the party and held leadership positions as well.  

I checked the employment stats for Iowa. and Iowa's economy slumped in 1979 and would not recover until May 1988. Which is as close to a decade as you can get. So by election day in November of 1988 a lot of people voted Dukakis as a protest vote.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IANAN

Ironically that farm crisis started as a result of the US banning agricultural exports to the USSR. A lot of the great plains state and one even like North Dakota that Carter had lost by 6% in 1976 was lost by 38% in 1980.


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/B181RC1Q027SBEA


Agricultural exports peaked in 1981 and would halve by 1987 and would not recover until 1994. And boomed afterwards.

Your photo of Hillary is the worst photo here on Atlas.

[TDAS04]

It wasn't just Kansas.  Dukakis overperformed through the Plains because of the farm crisis.