Cardin running for MD Senate

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From today's Hotline:

   According to Hotline sources, Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03) on 3/20 "held a 45-minute conference with about 40 close friends and supporters from around the state during which he informed them that, after waiting to talk" with Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-02) "who is presently out of the country, Cardin will announce" for SEN. He "will not announce the formation of any toe-in-the-pool exploratory committees but a full-fledged candidacy, and immediately start raising money" for a bid (3/21).
      Ex-state Rep. Tim Maloney (D) writes in the Washington Post that "Cardin has the strongest claim" to the Paul Sarbanes "legacy of integrity and intellectual stature. He also appears to be moving boldly toward the Senate race, shedding the political caution for which he is known." His candidacy "is complicated" by the ambitions of Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-08) and Ruppersberger. "Both, however, were elected to the House just 26 months ago so their candidacies might seem premature. Van Hollen is attractive and capable, but his candidacy would have little traction" outside Montgomery Co. "He should remember the experience" of '86 candidate/ex-Rep. Mike Barnes (D), "who ended a promising career in the House" by running against then-Rep. Barbara Mikulski (D). "He won in Montgomery handily, barely won Prince George's and lost badly everywhere else," garnering only 29% of the primary vote statewide (3/20).

      We asked Schaller for his take on a 3-way Dem primary between Cardin-Mfume-Van Hollen: In a 3-way race, each Dem "would harbor hopes of his two opponents' splitting a key portion" of the Dem primary electorate. "From Mfume's perspective, Cardin and Van Hollen would be splitting the white vote; for Van Hollen, Mfume and Cardin would be splitting the Baltimore metro area vote; and for Cardin, who oddly enough becomes the contest's centrist, Mfume and Van Hollen are splitting the party's left-liberal base vote. Put another way, Mfume views his winning combination as based in Baltimore City and Prince George's County; Van Hollen's as Montgomery and Prince George's counties; and Cardin's as the Baltimore suburbs plus chunks of Western MD, Southern MD and Eastern Shore" (e-mail, 3/21).

[ian]

Can Cardin win the primary?
Can Cardin beat Steele if he runs?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can Cardin win the primary?
Can Cardin beat Steele if he runs?

yes
yes

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cardin's been in the House a very long time so I'm suprised he's running. I'd think he'd just want to keep his seniority.

But since the two official candidates so far are him and Mfume, I'm definately supporting him for the time being.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Cardin has been waiting to run for Senate for the last 20 years, there just hasn't been an opening!  He took over for Mikulski in Congress when she ran for Senate.

Cardin would crush Steele or any other Republican in the general election; he's not all that exciting, but he basically has no negatives, and could win easily just by holding the Dem base.

He certainly can win the primary, but it depends on the field.  He'd probably win heads-up against Mfume, but would have a tougher time if Ruppersberger was also in the race to split the white/moderate vote.  As the article above points out, the picture is unclear if you add Van Hollen to the picture.

[Moooooo]

Can cardin win the primary?

Cardin can win both the primary and the general.  Personally,  Id prefer a younger candidate like, Rep. Chris Van Hollen to be the democratic candidate.  That way we can hold onto this seat for a long time (Maryland treats its incumbents good).

One things for sure, the Democrats better get behind a candidate early or Mfume is going to win the primary.  If Ruppersberger, Cardin, and Van Hollen run, Mfume will win the primary in a walk.  Then we will have a tough race in a safe democratic state and we cant afford that right now.

Can Cardin beat Steele if he runs?

Steele isnt that popular in Maryland. I have no clue why everyone is obsessed with this guy.  Id bet that only 2 out of every 10 Maryland residents know who he is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republicans love Steele so much because he's the highest ranking elected black Republican in the country, and they want a token black to show off. They can deny it all they want, but can they name another Lt. Gov. who get so much attention? Plus no one can deny Ehlrich would've not chosen him as his running mate if he wasn't black.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Steele said yesterday that a race between himself and Mfume, "would be Hank Aaron against Barry Bonds -- without steroids." 
Someone has a high opinion of himself, doesn't he?

[Moooooo]

Steele said yesterday that a race between himself and Mfume, "would be Hank Aaron against Barry Bonds -- without steroids." 
Someone has a high opinion of himself, doesn't he?

Man, I really hope Van Hollen runs.  Do you think there is anyway he could lose the general?  Hes young, energizing, articulate, charismatic, and a solid democrat.  To bad he wont have much of a chance in the primary with Cardin and Mfume running.

[No more McShame]

Steele said yesterday that a race between himself and Mfume, "would be Hank Aaron against Barry Bonds -- without steroids." 
Someone has a high opinion of himself, doesn't he?

Is Steele in?  I haven't heard any official announcement.

[Moooooo]

Is Steele in?  I haven't heard any official announcement.

Nope.  He's still undecided.  He'll probably wait for some poll's to come out before he makes a decision.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I really doubt Steele will run since he has a much better chance of being reelected with Ehlrich. He's got about a 50/50 shot there, winning the Senate seat would be a huge longshot.

[No more McShame]

I don't know about huge, but I will admit that his odds appear to be better with Erlich and less than 50-50 for the Senate.

[Moooooo]

I don't know about huge, but I will admit that his odds appear to be better with Erlich and less than 50-50 for the Senate.

I agree.  If he leaves Ehrlich he'll lose some of Ehrlichs base in Baltimore County, which happeneds to be the biggest swing county in the state.  If I were Steele Id stick it out with Ehrlich and hope for the best.

[migrendel]

The last thing this nation needs is another bland Democratic moderate. My support goes to Kweisi Mfume.

[phk]

Bobby Seale, the Black Panthers > NAACP

[Moooooo]

The last thing this nation needs is another bland Democratic moderate. My support goes to Kweisi Mfume.

What about Van Hollen?  Hes liberal, articulate, and charismatic.  Plus, hes much more electable than Mfume. 

[migrendel]

I think Mfume is better. Van Hollen is too fresh a face. He can be criticized as inexperienced, and quite legitimately so.

[Rob]

That's all well and good, but Mfume will lose. He's a horrible candidate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That's all well and good, but Mfume will lose. He's a horrible candidate.

I think it's a bit presumptuous to say that Mfume is a horrible candidate.  He's certainly not the most electable candidate the Dems could nominate, but he has a great deal of political savvy and could be very effective positioning himself to look like a mainstream Democrat; most people see him as being fairly moderate in his leadership of the NAACP.  He certainly isn't a horrible politician in the way that KKT was.

I'm a big Van Hollen fan, but I really worry that if he runs this year he will lose the primary badly, and end his national political career before it really started.  Maryland hasn't elected a Montgomery County candidate to any statewide office in 90 year, and I think Duncan, not Van Hollen, is the one to break this streak.

[Moooooo]

That's all well and good, but Mfume will lose. He's a horrible candidate.

I kinda' agree.  The GOP will paint him as a race baiter and try to convice the voters that he will only cater to African Americans.  But on the positive side he has a great story to tell, is charismatic, and blacks will come out in DROVES to vote for him (maryland has a 30% african american population).  Overall, Id much rather have Van Hollen or Cardin as Democratic candidate, but if Mfume wins the primary I will support him.

[Rob]

The GOP will crush him among whites. I'm not sure about the exact percentage, but they will. The question then for Mfume is: can his margin among blacks overcome his landslide defeat among whites? I'm guessing not.

[Moooooo]

The GOP will crush him among whites. I'm not sure about the exact percentage, but they will. The question then for Mfume is: can his margin among blacks overcome his landslide defeat among whites? I'm guessing not.

Your Probably right.  Im pretty sure the Unions will endorse Mfume over any Republican candidate and that will help.  Plus, most partisan Democrats will suck it up and vote for Mfume.  But your right about moderates/independents.  He will most likely get crushed in that category. 

[AuH2O]

I've seen no evidence blacks will actually turn out in droves to support Mfume. It's sounds good but is it true? I doubt it.

I would say that if black turnout only went up marginally in 1991 with David Duke on the ticket in Louisiana, then Maryland isn't likely to see an explosion in favor of Mfume. In fact I don't even think his share of the black vote would be higher than some of the white candidates. Democrats already get such a high % that there is no real marginal benefit.

Some white liberals would vote for him but the reality is that he can't win statewide, period, like I've said all along, and so I hope he wins the nomination. Let's see, 30% of the population really likes him, 60% really hates him, wonder how that will turn out...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I've seen no evidence blacks will actually turn out in droves to support Mfume. It's sounds good but is it true? I doubt it.

I would say that if black turnout only went up marginally in 1991 with David Duke on the ticket in Louisiana, then Maryland isn't likely to see an explosion in favor of Mfume. In fact I don't even think his share of the black vote would be higher than some of the white candidates. Democrats already get such a high % that there is no real marginal benefit.

Some white liberals would vote for him but the reality is that he can't win statewide, period, like I've said all along, and so I hope he wins the nomination. Let's see, 30% of the population really likes him, 60% really hates him, wonder how that will turn out...

How can you say 60% of the population hates Mfume?  Do you have any polling data to back this up?
 
I'll bet less than 60% of the population even knows who Mfume is.   Most of those who do know him know him as the NAACP chair, who got very favorable coverage throughout his tenure.  It's possible that one of his opponents could get traction out of dredging up his past, but this is something Mfume might have a counter for.  And in any case, he certainly doesn't start out with unfavorables anywhere near that high.