Trends for 2008 (user search)
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  Trends for 2008 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trends for 2008  (Read 4720 times)
Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« on: March 22, 2005, 03:21:36 PM »
Trends are meaningless.  Ohio was closer because of the economy, New Hampshire because of Kerry, Florida because of a good campaign, and Nevada because of Yucca Mtn.  A Southern Dem still can carry most of the outer South and a Northeast Republican can still carry PA, NJ, NH, and ME.  It depends on candidates and issues, not trends.
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Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2005, 05:19:31 PM »
Trends from '80, '84, '92, and '96 are worthless because 84 was a landslide year and the rest had strong third parties whose votes could've broken either way.  Trends in themselves are pretty worthless anyway.
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Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2005, 06:05:53 PM »
No, not really.  States follow the national trend only in blowout elections.  Trends are worthless, as I've been saying, because they easily change.  A Democrat from Florida will carry Florida, just like a Democrat from Mississippi or a Republican from New Jersey would carry their states.  Trends mean nothing when compared to things like outside events, candidates, issues, etc.
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