Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,779
Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
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« on: March 25, 2005, 12:53:32 PM » |
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Sometimes one can see a clear trend and then it's valuable. I think people some times over-estimate the speed of trends. There is no way for instance that a generic Northeastern Democrat takes Virginia, North Carolina or Arizona in the next election. The key battlegrounds remain the same: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. After that comes Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. I don't expect the candidates to make any effort at any other states for various reasons.
So that leaves the Dem candidate with the Kerry states minus PA and WI=221 EVs and the Rep candidate with the Bush states minus FL, OH, IA, CO, NV and NM=213 EVs.
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