Trends for 2008

[Smash255]

In 2008, I see the overall trend as follows. 

The Southwest continues to shift towards the Democrats.  Nevada and New Mexico, decidedly the 2 biggest swing states in the Western mix will be Democratic leans by 2008, New Mexico might even be slightly out of reach for the GOP.  Arizona has a strong conserative tradition, and will remain GOP lean.  Colorado will be the biggest swing state in the West, and in a close election, I expect the Democrats to actually pick up CO. 

The Northwest continues it's ever so slight shift towards the Dems.  Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Alaska, and the Dakotas are all so far out of reach, but I expect the Dems to pick up a couple meaningless points.  Oregon and Washington continue to lean Democratic, and by 2008, they are now solidly Democratic states in a close election. 

The South is a mix of the growing South and the declining, more rural South.  Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas are now completely out of the Democrats reach.  That is replaced by Virginia, which I expect the Dems to start to make major moves in.  North Carolina shows a very small shift towards the Dems, but nothing they will want to throw too much money into.  Same with Texas.  Florida is still the major battleground.  2004 was a fluke and a result of a horrible effort in the state by the Kerry campaign and a wonderfully designed campaign by Karl Rove.  The influx of people into the state will still be majority Democratic, and I see it flipping sides in 2008. 

The Midwest shows a shift towards the GOP.  Few places in the Midwest are actually growing with the national average, and its starting to become more and more like the South-lite out there.   Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota remain Democratic states.  Missouri becomes a solid GOP state, and Wisconsin and Iowa go to the GOP. 

The Northeast loses the 9/11 effect and shows it strongest support for the Democrats yet since the region first flipped in 92.  New Hampshire is a 5 pt Democratic victory.  Maine is a 10 pt.  The Dems score 60% in Mass., VT, RI, and NY and come very close in NJ, DE, CT, and MD.  The really only interesting state here is PA.  The Southwest of the state is trending GOP, the Southeast is trending Dem.  The Southeast is more in line with the major trend of bigger suburbs trending towards the Democrats, so I expect it to be bigger and the Dems actally win by 5 points in PA or more. 

MY 2008 GENERIC PREDICTION (in a completely even race)


Dems 288
GOP 250

Pretty much agree except I would say that Illinois trends more Dem as well as Ohio.  Wisc stays about the same vs Natl avaerage Minn moves back to lean Dem

[Smash255]

Trends are meaningless.  Ohio was closer because of the economy, New Hampshire because of Kerry, Florida because of a good campaign, and Nevada because of Yucca Mtn.  A Southern Dem still can carry most of the outer South and a Northeast Republican can still carry PA, NJ, NH, and ME.  It depends on candidates and issues, not trends.

NH had little to do with Kerry.  The state has been trending Dem (vs the National average) for awhile now.  Maine I think is out of reah for the GOP (barring Collins, Snow or Rudy) & NJ is out of play barring Rudy

[Smash255]

Sometimes one can see a clear trend and then it's valuable. I think people some times over-estimate the speed of trends. There is no way for instance that a generic Northeastern Democrat takes Virginia, North Carolina or Arizona in the next election. The key battlegrounds remain the same: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. After that comes Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. I don't expect the candidates to make any effort at any other states for various reasons.

So that leaves the Dem candidate with the Kerry states minus PA and WI=221 EVs and the Rep candidate with the Bush states minus FL, OH, IA, CO, NV and NM=213 EVs.

I thinK Colorado would be in batch 1 of the battleground states in 08.