Sometimes one can see a clear trend and then it's valuable. I think people some times over-estimate the speed of trends. There is no way for instance that a generic Northeastern Democrat takes Virginia, North Carolina or Arizona in the next election. The key battlegrounds remain the same: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. After that comes Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. I don't expect the candidates to make any effort at any other states for various reasons.
So that leaves the Dem candidate with the Kerry states minus PA and WI=221 EVs and the Rep candidate with the Bush states minus FL, OH, IA, CO, NV and NM=213 EVs.
Why is everyone ignoring Michigan? I think it is in the key battleground group. It was a 51-48 state. And Bush didn't even show up with his best stuff here.
Well, Bush showed up with practically his second home here in PA AND STILL LOST! HA and you said Bush was gonna win because of the "Dead Democrat" theorerm.
