Trends are meaningless. Ohio was closer because of the economy, New Hampshire because of Kerry, Florida because of a good campaign, and Nevada because of Yucca Mtn. A Southern Dem still can carry most of the outer South and a Northeast Republican can still carry PA, NJ, NH, and ME. It depends on candidates and issues, not trends.
I tend to agree. There is also that one election in which many prior trends get smashed, or unpredicatably accelerated. The last election of this type was 1992. It usually corresponds to a major change in political conditions, such as the end of the cold war.
