Sometimes one can see a clear trend and then it's valuable. I think people some times over-estimate the speed of trends. There is no way for instance that a generic Northeastern Democrat takes Virginia, North Carolina or Arizona in the next election. The key battlegrounds remain the same: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. After that comes Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. I don't expect the candidates to make any effort at any other states for various reasons.
So that leaves the Dem candidate with the Kerry states minus PA and WI=221 EVs and the Rep candidate with the Bush states minus FL, OH, IA, CO, NV and NM=213 EVs.
Why is everyone ignoring Michigan? I think it is in the key battleground group. It was a 51-48 state. And Bush didn't even show up with his best stuff here.
I think Michigan will be unlikely to go republican in 2008 (of course unless the republican is from or near michigan, moderate or wins in a landslide) Michigan is a tricky state, for the republicans to win they need to do well in the western/northern part of the state and Oakland county and Macomb county and hope Detroit doesn't show up.
Oakland county is not nearly as republican as it use to be, it's gone democrat in the last 3 elections. Although Macomb has moved the other way Bush won it in 04 lost it in 00.
