Republicans fear Midterm losses-In the House

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Murtha goes, PA-12 could very easily go Republican.

The old PA-12, yes, the new one... maybe in a very good year for the GOP nationally, but other than that I wouldn't think so (unless the local Democrats picked an extremely bad candidate).
Interestingly PA-12 has just one whole county. And that county has a small population.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One race (not yet mentioned) that could be very interesting is WV-2: The Democrats look like they've finally found a strong candidate and a big fundraising race has just started from both camps (this assumes that Capito musing about a Senate suicide run is just an attempt to get extra money, not an attempt to find out just how high turnout can rise in Southern WV when Byrd is a Senate candidate...)

Capito is weakest in the central Mountain (ie: coal) counties and also Kanawha county (her popularity here seems to have slipped quite a bit of late), she's strongest in the western suburbs of Charleston (esp. Putnam county) and also in the Eastern Panhandle (those three counties in the D.C Metro area). The counties between the central mountain counties and the Panhandle tend to be mixed between coal and agriculture and very isolated and somewhat socially conservative. Capito won them last time round 'cos of name recognition, but there's a strong possiblity of Callaghan highlighting her socially liberal (for WV) voting record out there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Democrats do have a chance, but the increased polarization and gerrymandering makes it pretty damn hard. In the past, the right-wing corporate media hasn't had the power that they do now.

[J. J.]

If Murtha goes, PA-12 could very easily go Republican.

It was actually gerrymandered to strengthen other GOP areas.

It is an exceptionally conservative area, especially eastern Westmoreland County.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Murtha goes, PA-12 could very easily go Republican.

It was actually gerrymandered to strengthen other GOP areas.

It is an exceptionally conservative area, especially eastern Westmoreland County.

Socially yes (and not only Westmoreland: IIRC Cambria county, most of which is in the district, is the most Catholic in PA and very high up a U.S list as well) although it's pretty heavily Democratic by registration.
Methinks if the seat opens up, the Democrats better find themselves a Pro Life candidate...

And also an astonishly ugly district:

[TeePee4Prez]

If Murtha goes, PA-12 could very easily go Republican.

It was actually gerrymandered to strengthen other GOP areas.

It is an exceptionally conservative area, especially eastern Westmoreland County.

Socially yes (and not only Westmoreland: IIRC Cambria county, most of which is in the district, is the most Catholic in PA and very high up a U.S list as well) although it's pretty heavily Democratic by registration.
Methinks if the seat opens up, the Democrats better find themselves a Pro Life candidate...

And also an astonishly ugly district:

Pro-life Dems aren't hard to come by in that region.  I think only in a GOP blowout would this seat flip.

[The Dowager Mod]

The republicans have nothing to fear.

[WMS]

Here is the list of DC Political Report's Democratic possible retirees. I took a look at the district maps and tried to guess at which way it leans.

Ike Skelton (D-MO-4)                 No clue

Shout me down

REP lean. Definitely a REP lean. If Skelton retires, the Reps pick up this seat - it is exactly the type of rural seat the Dems have been hemorraging for the last 15 years or more.

And on a side note: this is the district I was born in, if not raised in, and I have a lot of relatives in central Missouri. Dixiecrats, for the most part.

[King]

Gerlach - 52%
Murphy - 58%

I thought I was seeing things.

With 110% of the vote, you probably were...

[Keystone Phil]

Gerlach - 52%
Murphy - 58%

I thought I was seeing things.

With 110% of the vote, you probably were...

Wow. Did I really put that? Better go change it. It was 52-48.