Republicans fear Midterm losses-In the House

[dazzleman]

It seems that local Pennsylvania politics gets more exposure on this forum than any other state.

[dazzleman]

If in 2006 we have $4 gas, the dollar collapses, inflation returns, the economy goes in ressesion and we still have 150,000 troops in Iraq, picking up 25 seats would be possible for the Democrats.

Great point.  A lot has to do with the conditions that exist then.

Also, sometimes success is the worst thing in politics.  If Bush is perceived as so successful at dealing with national security threats that we can sink back into the languid attitude of the Clinton years, that helps the Democrats.

[Keystone Phil]

It seems that local Pennsylvania politics gets more exposure on this forum than any other state.

Thanks. We already knew that. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not to mention it was basically gerrymandered to increase GOP strength in neighboring districts.

And PA 13 and PA 6 were supposed to be good Republican districts. Gerrymandering actions don't necessarily end the way people intend.

well did this one fail? All of the surrounding districts that were supposed to be Republican are pretty safely Republican since this one took in all the Democratic areas.

[Moooooo]

MD - 2 and MD- 5 may go Republican if Ruppersberger and Hoyer run for senate.

[Moooooo]

If in 2006 we have $4 gas, the dollar collapses, inflation returns, the economy goes in ressesion and we still have 150,000 troops in Iraq, picking up 25 seats would be possible for the Democrats.

Under those circumstances Id say we'd pick up 50+ seats. LOL.

[Keystone Phil]

Not to mention it was basically gerrymandered to increase GOP strength in neighboring districts.

And PA 13 and PA 6 were supposed to be good Republican districts. Gerrymandering actions don't necessarily end the way people intend.

well did this one fail? All of the surrounding districts that were supposed to be Republican are pretty safely Republican since this one took in all the Democratic areas.

If it opens up it could fail.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MD - 2 and MD- 5 may go Republican if Ruppersberger and Hoyer run for senate.

Isn't the Ruppersberger seat Ehlrich's old one that he decided to vacate and run for governor instead because he was almost confident he'd lose in the new district? Although Ruppersberger won the open seat easily.

Both are gerrymandered as hell, so the Democrats screwed up bad if they go Republican. But since Hoyer is the #2 House Democrat, I'd be very suprised if he runs.

[Keystone Phil]

MD - 2 and MD- 5 may go Republican if Ruppersberger and Hoyer run for senate.

Ruppersberger is already running. Does the GOP really have a shot at those seats? I couldn't imagine Hoyer's seat switching.

[Moooooo]

Ruppersberger is already running. Does the GOP really have a shot at those seats? I couldn't imagine Hoyer's seat switching.

Ehrlich used to be the congressman in MD-2, so its definitley possible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ruppersberger is already running. Does the GOP really have a shot at those seats? I couldn't imagine Hoyer's seat switching.

Ehrlich used to be the congressman in MD-2, so its definitley possible.

yeah, but wasn't the seat gerrymandered to get rid of him so he decided to run for governor since he thought he'd have no chance in the new district?

man, this is the 2nd district:


If the Democrats went through the trouble of creating that piece of work, I really hope we don't lose it.

[Jake]

Here is the list of DC Political Report's Democratic possible retirees. I took a look at the district maps and tried to guess at which way it leans.

George Miller (D-CA-7)                DEM
Tom Lanots (D-CA-12)                 DEM
Pete Stark (D-CA-13)                  DEM
Henry Waxman (D-CA-30)           DEM
Mark Udall (D-CO-2)                    DEM lean
Jim Davis (D-FL-11)                     DEM lean
John Lewis (D-GA-5)                   DEM
Julia Carson (D-IN-7)                  DEM
Tom Allen (D-ME-1)                     DEM lean
Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD-2)  DEM  lean
Ben Cardin (D-MD-3)                  DEM
Elijah Cummings (D-MD-7)         DEM
Chris Van Hollen (D-MD-8)         DEM
Barney Frank (D-MA-4)              DEM
Martin Meehan (D-MA-5)            DEM
Ed Markey (D-MA-7)                   DEM
Dale Kildee (D-MI-5)                  DEM lean
Sander Levin (D-MI-12)             DEM
John Conyers (D-MI-14)             DEM
John Dingell (D-MI-16)               DEM
Martin Olav Sabo (DFL-MN-5)     DEM
James Oberstar (DFL-MN-8)       DEM lean
Ike Skelton (D-MO-4)                 No clue
Donald Payne (D-NJ-10)            DEM
Anthony Weiner (D-NY-9)          DEM
Edolphus Towns (D-NY-10)        DEM
Major Owens (D-NY-11)             DEM
Charles Rangel (D-NY-15)          DEM
Nita Lowey (D-NY-18)                DEM
Louise Slaughter (D-NY-28)       DEM
Marcy Kaptur (D-OH-9)              DEM lean
Sherrod Brown (D-OH-13)         DEM lean
Chaka Fattah (D-PA-2)              DEM
Paul Kanjorski (D-PA-11)           DEM lean
John Murtha (D-PA-12)              TOSS UP
Jim Langevin (D-RI-2)                DEM
Harold E. Ford (D-TN-9)             DEM
Solomon Ortiz (D-TX-27)            DEM
Norman Dicks (D-WA-6)             DEM
Jim McDermott (D-WA-7)            DEM
David Obey (D-WI-7)                 DEM

Shout me down

[Moooooo]

yeah, but wasn't the seat gerrymandered to get rid of him so he decided to run for governor since he thought he'd have no chance in the new district?

You proably right about that.  Ruppersberger won big, but he ran against a lady from my town (Dundalk) who is an ABSOLUTE NOBODY, Jane Brooks.  Ehrlich was extremley popular in my area because as many Dundalk residents would say "Im voting for Bobby Ehrlich because he'll keep the ni--ers out."

[Moooooo]

man, this is the 2nd district:


If the Democrats went through the trouble of creating that piece of work, I really hope we don't lose it.

I live in the 2nd district.  Harford County and Anne Arundel counties are solid Republican and Baltimore County is pretty evenly divided.  It would be a long shot, but not impossible.

[Moooooo]

If the Democrats went through the trouble of creating that piece of work, I really hope we don't lose it.

LOL, now that I think about it the Democrats did go way out of their way to pull this one off.  They stretched halfway across Baltimore County to include Randallstown, which is 95% African American.

[Keystone Phil]

yeah, but wasn't the seat gerrymandered to get rid of him so he decided to run for governor since he thought he'd have no chance in the new district?

as many Dundalk residents would say "Im voting for Bobby Ehrlich because he'll keep the ni--ers out."

Yet his Lt. Gov. candidate was a black man. Some people are so smart. So not only was their reasoning stupid, they couldn't even notice that he had someone they dislike running with him.

[Moooooo]

Yet his Lt. Gov. candidate was a black man. Some people are so smart. So not only was their reasoning stupid, they couldn't even notice that he had someone they dislike running with him.

Your right, but this was when he was running for congress.  I think he strongly opposed section 8 housing and that was a big issue in my area.

On a side note,  Phil if you think Ehrlich selected Steele for any reason besides helping him with the African American please fill me in?

[Keystone Phil]

Yet his Lt. Gov. candidate was a black man. Some people are so smart. So not only was their reasoning stupid, they couldn't even notice that he had someone they dislike running with him.

Your right, but this was when he was running for congress.  I think he strongly opposed section 8 housing and that was a big issue in my area.

On a side note,  Phil if you think Ehrlich selected Steele for any reason besides helping him with the African American please fill me in?

Section 8 is a huge issue in PA 13. You don't know what you just started.  

I'm sure Ehrlich selected him for helping him with the black vote. I'm not going to deny that.

[Moooooo]

Section 8 is a huge issue in PA 13. You don't know what you just started.  

Section 8 is still a huge issue here.  Thats where the "Im voting for Bobby Ehrlich because..." line comes from.  Whats up with section 8 in PA 13?

I'm sure Ehrlich selected him for helping him with the black vote. I'm not going to deny that.

If we're going to be honest here, it was the only reason.  Before becomming Lt. Gov., Steele was a failed businessman and politician.  He offered nothing to the ticket besides a couple extra votes from the African American population, but he actually did alot better than anyone expected.  Ehrlich/Steele went on to pull like 18% of the African American vote, which is way higher than the normal Republican who gets 10%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

wasn't Steele basically a nobody previously anyway?

[Keystone Phil]

Section 8 is a huge issue in PA 13. You don't know what you just started.  

Section 8 is still a huge issue here.  Thats where the "Im voting for Bobby Ehrlich because..." line comes from.  Whats up with section 8 in PA 13?

You can look at the PA 13 thread (some of the early posts) for some answers. I really don't want to start that up again with Flyers.

[TeePee4Prez]

Section 8 is a huge issue in PA 13. You don't know what you just started.  

Section 8 is still a huge issue here.  Thats where the "Im voting for Bobby Ehrlich because..." line comes from.  Whats up with section 8 in PA 13?

You can look at the PA 13 thread (some of the early posts) for some answers. I really don't want to start that up again with Flyers.

By all means go there.  I don't want another Section 8 debate.  We've had MANY!

[kgt107]

wasn't Steele basically a nobody previously anyway?

He was the chairman of the Maryland Republican Party.

[danwxman]

It would take a very strong Republican to win in Murtha's district. I'd say it's lean Dem.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

If Kanjorski retires, we have an excellent chance to take down whatever state rep the Democrats put up.  Mayor Barletta, who ran in 2002, lost by 18 points, and could easily get 50% against someone like John Yudichak or Kevin Blaum.

Losing by 18 point is not a very strong showing.

Further proving you don't know much about PA politics.  Kanjorski is the safest Democratic rep outside of Philadelphia, and is wildly popular in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.  Losing by 18 to Kanjorski with the district that he's in is quite an accomplishment.

That race was overshadowed by the whole FBI probe thing though.