latest Betfair odds

[Lurker]

Estimating Sanders' chances at becoming the Democratic nominee to be 16% seems awfully generous.

[Lurker]

I think 90 is a bit high, simply because I'm not sure the chances of Clinton having a stroke or plane crash or whatever between now and July are sub-10%. Eight months is a long time to just blithely assume someone will remain in good health. Just IMO.

Really? If you look at the percentage of healthyish 68 year olds who die or suffer a very serious illness within a year, I am sure it would be far less than 10%. And Hillary easily seems at least of average health for her age, as well as obviously having access to the best of medical treatments).

(As for the risk of assasination or something like that, I can't see it as being plausible enough to affect the odds at all)

[Lurker]

Ok, this is just getting silly. 12,2% chance of Jeb winning the primary?! We are in the middle of January and he's averaging less than 4% in the national polls.

Why are they giving him such a high chance?

 

[Lurker]

It seems strange that they would still give a 17% chance to the candidate being neither Cruz nor Trump. I'm very unsure about each of their individual chances, but their combined odds should be way more than 80%.