latest Betfair odds

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is all most disgusting. Perhaps the answer is to conclude the the American Revolution was all a mistake, and merge back with the UK. The Parliamentary system, and of course the UK legal system, and their campaign finance laws, and length of campaigns, is far superior to the mess with which we have to cope in all events.

Tories would have a permanent majority then.

The US would create at least two parties to represent American interests, one of which would always be in government.  The Tories would take part in a coalition if no American party got a majority of seats, but the Americans would be in the driver's seat.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Post-debate update: The GOP prices are jumping around like mad right now.  At the moment, Trump, Rubio and Cruz have all gained since their pre-debate prices (Trump gaining the most), which should be impossible, since there’s no one else dropping to offset the price.

Could the cheaper contracts be inflated by speculators hoping to win big?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'll be laughing my ass off when Rubio gets crushed in the next contests and the dupes who bought him lose their money.   

The Rubio investors are buy-and-hold, not day traders.  If you're looking for a quick buck, buy Cruz now and dump after SEC Tuesday.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Any guesses as to what those #s will be in 24 hours?

For the GOP tonight is a referendum on how badly Rubio hurt himself.  Rubio won't lose votes to Trump, but he will lose them to Kasich and Christie.  So... Trump doesn't have to exceed expectations for his stock to rise.  The alternate establishments just have to have a good night.  See Trump pull back ahead of Rubio *puke*.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Rubio crapped the bed much, much worse than I thought he would.

Cruz has a floor due to his SEC firewall.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm surprised Kasich is so low. I really doubt he's going to win the nomination, but I think his chances are higher than 3%.

Unless he picks up some public support from the establishment (endorsements, donations, etc.) his primary performances are meaningless.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

LOL, Rubio at 4%.

Marco.

Marco!

MARCO!!

I think he's gone.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If trump loses WI bigly and gets 0 delegates, gets less than 50% in NY, loses Pa to kasich, loses MD to kasich, loses CT to kasich......would he drop below 40?

That's the absolute worst-case scenario for him, so yeah.

He'd crash to single digits.  But the chances of this happening are... in the single digits :-).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ryan desperately needs to clone himself.

So that he can save the GOP as Speaker and as Presidential nominee?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Can someone remind me why Torie's avatar is red?

Local reasons, but I really consider myself more or less a true independent now. The GOP is in a bad place in general right now - a very bad place. The Dems are not any better. I like Ryan because he's smart, principled, issue focused, genial, works well with others, and relatively reasonable and pragmatic. That makes him sadly rather unusual in the Pub party these days, among those with much profile at least.

The GOP is broken, and it's probably best for everyone if big business and mainstream members of the Republicans and Democrats started a new party.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm starting to think me making so much money this year has little to do with me being knowledgeable and much more to do with Sanders people (and establishment Republicans in the case of Bush) being so completely deluded that it's impossible not to make money.

Are they so deluded that they would bet their money on Sanders rather than donate to the campaign?

Not us.  Me.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The GOP is broken, and it's probably best for everyone if big business and mainstream members of the Republicans and Democrats started a new party.

It won't be good for them.

If there is one thing made abundantly clear, it's that a status-quo party for the corporations and wealthy is going nowhere. When we had two of them, they could pretend to oppose each other, but if there's just one it will start losing.

The way we got here is that they pretended to oppose each other using social wedge issues and race-baiting.  When the culture and demographics of the country shifted, 2/3 of the country ended up on one side of the wedge, 1/3 on the other.  Which destabilized the entire political ecosystem.

Add a whopper of a recession, an education bubble, a rapidly evolving jobs market, globalization, and wealth concentration, and you have a perfect storm of anger.  But what are the major parties supposed to do about it?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton still seems underpriced. Sure, Sanders could theoretically still win it, but it would take some very special circumstances and the chances of that are surely well below 10%.

Unopposed McCain, unopposed Romney, and unopposed Obama were only at 95-96% at points, so I think that's partly just a function of the market. The rest could be explained by people thinking she'll be indicted.

Hedging on that, also hedging on a New York miracle.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

2. Trump not winning at greater than even odds- I would be shocked if he is actually the nominee

The best buying opportunity might be after he loses big in Indiana and everyone freaks out.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Up: Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 94.3
Sanders 4.8
Biden 1.6

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 21.7
Kasich 3.8
Ryan 1.9

When was Cruzich announced?  Is this pre- or post-Cruzich?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

GOP VP
Kasich 20.8

Do that many people seriously think Kasich will come crawling to Trump's side after Cruzich?  I suppose anything is possible in this wacko cycle.

Or do they think this alliance will be necessary to secure Trump's first-ballot victory?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Biden just surged to 21% on politicaloddschecker.  I can't find the betting site that would have caused this.  What gives?

http://politicaloddschecker.com/democratic-nomination-odds

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Biden just surged to 21% on politicaloddschecker.  I can't find the betting site that would have caused this.  What gives?

http://politicaloddschecker.com/democratic-nomination-odds

And Rand Paul is at 33%.  Someone is trollin'.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump sinks even lower.  Now below 90 to win the nomination.  Sessions continues to surge in the Republican VP market.

Winning Individual
Clinton 75.2
Trump 18.5

I'd be surprised if this wasn't Trump's general election floor until late October.  So... buy?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm starting to do my own aggregate odds on the GE winners, averaged across multiple betting sites.  Just for my own tiny contribution.  Source:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

June 24
Clinton: 76.01%
Trump: 28.20%

June 27
Clinton: 75.73%
Trump: 28.62%
Sanders: 3.14%
Biden: 3.22% *
Ryan: 1.43

* Weird outlier: for some reason, Matchbook.com is offering 24/5 odds on Biden, lol

When I have enough data points, I'll make a graph.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

President Trump won’t happen. Don’t worry.

I don't think the odds on him will really tank until late October, however.  Gamblers are holding out for October surprises, criminal motions against Clinton, what have you.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

President Trump won’t happen. Don’t worry.

I don't think the odds on him will really tank until late October, however.  Gamblers are holding out for October surprises, criminal motions against Clinton, what have you.

Even if (and that’s a very big if) Clinton has to get out and Uncle Joe would step in, he would crush the Trumpster badly. His party is totally divided, he has angered too many important voter groups and the electoral college is absolutely not in his favor. He has already shown that he’s not willing to change and a majority of Americans won’t elect a narcissist bully with bigoted language.

At the speed thing are moving, if there is some kind of "disqualifying event" against Clinton, there won't be time to replace her on the ballot.  At that point the de facto nominee would be the running mate.  Clinton would take the oath, the Veep-Elect would take his/hers, Clinton would immediately resign, and the Veep would be sworn in as POTUS 46.

The question is, would the voters understand that they would be electing the running mate as President?  Would this be so damaging as to hand the election to Trump?

Note: This won't actually happen.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Huge surge for Pence:

GOP VP

Pence 55.2
Gingrich 20.8
Christie 12.5
Kasich 10.9
Flynn 6.2

Words cannot describe how happy this makes me.  I may go up to Westfield tomorrow just to see Trump introduce him as running mate.  Good riddance, Pence.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Pence drops below 50, and Gingrich has a big surge…

Pence 46.3
Gingrich 37.7
Christie 8.8
Sessions 6.5

A lot of people were expecting a VP announcement last night.  Turns out it was an "audition," as you were saying.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

And now 80...

Pence 82.6
Gingrich 13.1
Christie 10.5

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-vice-president.html?_r=0