latest Betfair odds

[Vosem]

The chance of someone being drafted at the Convention is generally overstated, because I think there's no way _trump loyalist delegates+Cruz loyalist delegates aren't a majority, and neither group will ever acquiesce to a draftee. They'd rather have the whole thing go to Ballot 40. The remainder of delegates will most likely be Kasichian/Rubian/establishmentarian uncommitted types, and will be much more sympathetic to Cruz than _trump. They may hold out to get something out of Cruz (a change to the party platform, a VP choice they approve of), but they're not going to back _trump and they won't have the strength to advance their own candidate to the nomination. Again, unless _trump is very close (and how "very" is necessary is unclear but depends in large part on the result in PA; if he wins strongly there the uncommitted delegates there may feel pressured to vote for him; if Kasich wins there outright _trump will get very few uncommitted) it's very difficult to see the Convention not nominating Cruz.

[Vosem]

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

He doesn't have much of a chance if there are multiple ballots, and it is increasingly likely that he will fail to meet the majority threshold on the first ballot.

Because people actually care about the abortion comments, because Cruz is surging in Wisconsin, or simply because he already peaked and is coming back down to earth?

The latter two, I think.

[Vosem]

Cruz is back above 20, and Trump is below 60.  Will Trump drop below 50 at some point between now and the end of primary season in June?

Heck, considering how extreme some of the oscillations have been, the actual act of losing Wisconsin may be enough to do it. If he loses a state the day of the mid-Atlantic primary (Kasich should have a real shot in PA and MD), he'll probably be below 50 permanently.