latest Betfair odds

[cinyc]

What are the latest odds after last night? I suppose that Rubio's odds have dropped further and Sanders odds have increased slightly.

I'm not sure what Mr. Morden uses to calculate the odds, but if you use the average of the bid and ask, it's currently:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 8.0
Biden 2.0

Republicans
Trump 68.5
Cruz 13.2
Kasich 6.2
Rubio 4.3
Ryan 1.5
Romney 1.2


So Trump and Sanders are up and everyone else is down.  That's only true if I'm using Mr. Morden's method to compute the percentages, though.

[cinyc]

On PredictIt Trump is crashing big time in the wake of his abortion comments.  Cruz is surging.

Trump 53
Cruz 30

LOL! Trump doesn't like abortion! Guess I'll vote for Cruz now

The analysis on this site keeps getting worse and worse. This drop is from far before the comments.

Trump is slightly down on Betfair today, too.  I can't give an exact calculation because I don't know how Mr. Morden does it, but Trump is down to about 63% if you take the average of the bid-ask spread.

What else did Trump do today to cause a decline?

[cinyc]

I think it has more to do with MU poll than the abortion stuff.

If trump only wins 6 0r 9/42 dels there, that's tough for him.

I would be more interested in whether he could finally be acting ridiculous enough to implode nationally than reading anything into WI.  Thus far, there is no momentum in this race.  See Nate Cohn's recent tweet.  Demographic models have him badly disfavored in WI, along with NE and mildly disfavored in SD, but they also have him favored to win literally every other remaining state that binds delegates in a primary.

The predictions markets tend to overreact to every little campaign event, so it's probably both.

[cinyc]

Trump is even further down on Betfair today, currently somewhere around 55%.  He's currently meeting with the RNC about something - nobody knows what.  I'm not sure if that has anything to do with Trump falling at Betfair.

[cinyc]

By my math, Trump fell below 50% on Betfair this evening.  On Predictit, Trump is only 8 cents ahead of Cruz, 44 cents to 36 cents.

[cinyc]

https://www.betfairpredicts.com/

He's currently at 54% to Cruz's 29%.

Interestingly, they put the chances of a "contested convention" at 77%.  Now, I haven't read their contracts, which might define "contested" as one where Trump comes in at less than a majority but is close enough that he wins on first ballot anyways.

I'm using the Betfair Exchange numbers here, and taking the inverse of the last price matched.  Trump's last price was 2.08, which translates to 48.1%.  Cruz's last price was 3.8, which translates to 26.3%.  That's different than the 53% Trump/29% Cruz at the betfairpredicts.com website you linked to.  I'm not sure why.  

I'm not sure what methodology Mr. Morden is using.  He can't just be taking the betfairpredicts.com numbers because he's using decimals and they don't.

[cinyc]

Trump is down on the prediction markets in the hour before the polls close in Wisconsin.  On PredictIt, Trump's lead is down to 2 cents over Cruz, 39c to 37c.  Paul Ryan is at 18c, John Kasich at 9c and Mitt Romney at 5c.  Trump and Cruz have been bobbing up and down a lot on PredictIt, though.

On all of the Betfair Exchange websites, including Betfairpredicts.com, Trump is below 50%.  He is at 49% on betfairpredicts.com, 45.9% on Oddschecker and 45.5% on the actual Betfair Exchange (last purchase price).

[cinyc]

Cruz and Trump are now tied at 38c on PredictIt.  But trading there (and on Betfair Exchange) has been very volatile.

[cinyc]

PredictIt has calmed down a bit, and Trump regained his lead, 42c to 33c for Cruz.  Ryan is at 16c, Kasich 9c and Romney 3c. 

Trump is under 50% in all of the Betfair metrics, but not as much as he was as the early results were coming in.

[cinyc]

what do you think changed as night went on?

I'm amazed frankly that he is so high on betfair still.

People on PredictIt came to their senses after panic selling, and figured the Wisconsin loss was already baked into the results.  The prediction markets always overreact to every little campaign event for a while after significant or insignificant events.

[cinyc]

Trump is back above 50c on PredictIt, after briefly flirting with a tie with Cruz in the 30s last week.  As of right now, Trump is at 51c, Cruz 32c, Ryan 11c and Kasich 10c.