latest Betfair odds

[Ronnie]

Honestly, I think Trump should be at 80-90.  He leads Rubio by 16-20 points in Florida, and even beats him in a 1 vs. 1 match up in that state according to PPP.  What can realistically happen over the next few weeks to move the needle so drastically in Rubio's favor?

[Ronnie]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

He's going to get demolished on Super Tuesday, and is down 20 points in his home state.  How on earth did you arrive at 49%?

[Ronnie]

what would a cruz win in WI and kasich win in PA do to these odds?

Romney and Ryan's shares go up based on speculation of a contested convention.

I don't understand the rationale for thinking Romney or Ryan would manage to get the nomination instead of Cruz in a scenario in which Trump fails to accumulate a delegate majority.  Trump and Cruz will amass the vast majority of delegates irrespective of what happens until the convention, and there's no way those delegates would accept nominating anyone other than one of the two leading candidates.

[Ronnie]

Sanders is at a pretty insane 18c on PredictIt and 11% at the jointly derived Predictwise

http://youtu.be/JSHf1svbQrA

[Ronnie]

One anonymous Republican strategist who has a strong record of accurately predicting the nominee places the odds of Paul Ryan emerging as the nominee at a brokered convention at 54%:

http://www.politico.com/playbook/2016/04/ryan-rising-why-top-rs-increasingly-see-him-as-savior-the-other-gop-fight-well-funded-push-to-get-platform-to-accommodate-gay-marriage-fec-filing-trump-has-94-staffers-hillary-765-new-phones-for-west-wing-213548

[Ronnie]

Can someone remind me why Torie's avatar is red?

[Ronnie]

I wonder why Cruz isn't higher at this point.  The odds of reaching a contested convention are greater than 50% and his chances of winning if that comes to pass are significantly greater than 50%.