latest Betfair odds

[Torie]

Does anyone feel Bush isn't overpriced here?

I think it is about right. Bush still has lots of money, and may get his act together, and nobody else really is getting traction other than Carson (Trump isn't going to be the nominee), and the doubts about Carson, are that he is inept at policy prescriptions, and articulating them effectively, so the assumption at some point is that he will far by the wayside. Fiorina has shown that she can stumble, and stumble pretty badly, and Rubio still looks like a kid, and gets agitated under pressure. While some say the Pubs have an "embarrassment of riches" in their field, the truth of the matter is that all of the candidates have material flaws. Romney looks better and better to me. Fancy that!

[Torie]

I would buy Clinton right now.

The narrative has been that while she's got strong fundamentals, she's confused and stumbling and making a mess of her campaign and embroiled in scandal and using the "I'm a woman" argument instead of making a real case for herself.

Last night showed that she's got this covered.  Her campaign isn't going to collapse.  She's solid.

Bernie isn't going to win.  Clinton hasn't even attacked him yet.  If he gets close to winning the nomination he will be destroyed through oppo and 1-on-1 debates just like she tried to do with Obama.  Except Bernie doesn't have Obama's intelligence, charisma, or poise.

What's holding Clinton down, is nobody is sure how the email thing will end up. Absent that, and the Dem race would be over.

[Torie]

So the markets think that Jeb! will be the strongest Pub candidate in the General election. Fancy that! Yes, Muon2 has made a rather more nuanced comment about this, but I just wanted to share. Jeb! needs good news about something.

[Torie]

Rubio and Carson are too high. Trump and Cruz are too low.

Carson's unorthodoxy is a loser, while Trump's is a winner, in other words. Got it.

[Torie]

This is all most disgusting. Perhaps the answer is to conclude the the American Revolution was all a mistake, and merge back with the UK. The Parliamentary system, and of course the UK legal system, and their campaign finance laws, and length of campaigns, is far superior to the mess with which we have to cope in all events.

[Torie]

It's long overdue but is there any particular reason why the Trump surge is happening now?

Maybe his announced ad blitz?

[Torie]

Stu Rothenberg has it about right I think. Trump has a 20% chance, Rubio and Cruz between them have a 75% chance, and everybody else collectively has a 5% chance. And I don't blame Rothenberg for dodging the issue of dividing the 75% between Cruz and Rubio. I certainly would not be so foolish as to do that in public. That one is really about just throwing a dart at the wall at the moment.

[Torie]

Stu Rothenberg has it about right I think. Trump has a 20% chance, Rubio and Cruz between them have a 75% chance, and everybody else collectively has a 5% chance. And I don't blame Rothenberg for dodging the issue of dividing the 75% between Cruz and Rubio. I certainly would not be so foolish as to do that in public. That one is really about just throwing a dart at the wall at the moment.

Stu Rothenberg doesn't have it right. You just hope he does.

I hardly consider such a high percentage chance for Cruz, to be a cause of celebration for the coming Jubilee. It's more like a dangerous voyage between the Scylla and Charybdis in stormy waters, with a shark nearby with a comb over hairdo who claims he always gets his prey because he's a winner, and fantastic at everything he does, ever ready, if the boat capsizes, to consume those on board. In fact, he's now trying to give commands to Zeus to strike lightening at the boat to boot, so as to set it afire, to be doused only when it slips below the waves, the better to increase the odds that he will be able to satiate his hunger. Nobody but a fool would consider the shark dumb, because he's not. He's dangerous, but not dumb.

[Torie]

Trump rising I understand, but I don't get why Rubio is going back up and Cruz is falling.

Probably the birther thing. It's gotten him off message, and created uncertainty.

[Torie]

Ryan desperately needs to clone himself.

[Torie]

Can someone remind me why Torie's avatar is red?

Local reasons, but I really consider myself more or less a true independent now. The GOP is in a bad place in general right now - a very bad place. The Dems are not any better. I like Ryan because he's smart, principled, issue focused, genial, works well with others, and relatively reasonable and pragmatic. That makes him sadly rather unusual in the Pub party these days, among those with much profile at least.