latest Betfair odds

[RaphaelDLG]

Can you derive the betfair super tuesday primary odds?  I'm too ignorant to be literate at reading any sportsbook that's not done American/Vegas-style.

[RaphaelDLG]

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

[RaphaelDLG]

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

He doesn't have much of a chance if there are multiple ballots, and it is increasingly likely that he will fail to meet the majority threshold on the first ballot.

Because people actually care about the abortion comments, because Cruz is surging in Wisconsin, or simply because he already peaked and is coming back down to earth?

[RaphaelDLG]

Predictit has the benefit of being more liquid than Betfair but also seems to consistently overvalue Sanders and whomever is the underdog in the Republican race, or at least just makes the odds much narrower than they should be from my observations.

[RaphaelDLG]

Sanders is at a pretty insane 18c on PredictIt and 11% at the jointly derived Predictwise

[RaphaelDLG]

By my math, Trump fell below 50% on Betfair this evening.  On Predictit, Trump is only 8 cents ahead of Cruz, 44 cents to 36 cents.

https://www.betfairpredicts.com/

He's currently at 54% to Cruz's 29%.

Interestingly, they put the chances of a "contested convention" at 77%.  Now, I haven't read their contracts, which might define "contested" as one where Trump comes in at less than a majority but is close enough that he wins on first ballot anyways.