latest Betfair odds

[Matty]

what would a cruz win in WI and kasich win in PA do to these odds?

[Matty]

what would a cruz win in WI and kasich win in PA do to these odds?

Romney and Ryan's shares go up based on speculation of a contested convention.

yea but the problem is that even if the #nevertrump movement can get some "surprise" wins in some of these states, california will still be kingmaker. I imagine these odds are almost completely tied to CA polling trends at this point.

[Matty]

ryan would be a decent choice, but the american people have AWFUL views of congress right now and that could bring down his approvals.

[Matty]

I think it has more to do with MU poll than the abortion stuff.

If trump only wins 6 0r 9/42 dels there, that's tough for him.

[Matty]

Cruz is back above 20, and Trump is below 60.  Will Trump drop below 50 at some point between now and the end of primary season in June?

Up: Cruz, Kasich, Ryan
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 87.7
Sanders 11.1

Republicans
Trump 59.5
Cruz 22.2
Kasich 11.9
Ryan 5.4
Rubio 0.9

I would love to see these numbers if/when wolf blitzer makes the projection right at 7 (8?)- "we can project that ted cruz has won the WI primary"

[Matty]

If trump loses WI bigly and gets 0 delegates, gets less than 50% in NY, loses Pa to kasich, loses MD to kasich, loses CT to kasich......would he drop below 40?

[Matty]

PredictIt has calmed down a bit, and Trump regained his lead, 42c to 33c for Cruz.  Ryan is at 16c, Kasich 9c and Romney 3c. 

Trump is under 50% in all of the Betfair metrics, but not as much as he was as the early results were coming in.

what do you think changed as night went on?

I'm amazed frankly that he is so high on betfair still.