latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Trump retreats below 50, as Rubio closes the gap.  Cruz and Kasich now tied for third.

Up: Rubio
Down: Sanders, Trump, Romney, Carson

Democrats
Clinton 83.3
Sanders 14.1

Republicans
Trump 49.3
Rubio 45.5
Cruz 2.6
Kasich 2.6
Ryan 0.6
Carson 0.5
Romney 0.5

LOL. TRUMP down although he won big.

He's down from where he was ~8 hours ago, when I gave my last update (which is shortly after the South Carolina results and the Bush dropout).  But he's still *up* compared to 24 hours ago, when the South Carolina results weren't out yet.

[Eraserhead]

Cruz is only tied with Kasich now? Sheesh, that seems like a bit of an overreaction.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Super Tuesday PredictIt Ask Prices --

Nevada: Trump 88, Rubio 14, Cruz 4

Alabama: Trump 84, Cruz 16, Rubio 12
Massachusetts: Trump 79, Rubio 25, Kasich 6
Vermont: Trump 78, Rubio 23, Kasich 10
Tennessee: Trump 78, Rubio 18, Cruz 10
Georgia: Trump 74, Rubio 29, Cruz 10
Arkansas: Trump 70, Cruz 24, Rubio 18 (Bid: 13)
Alaska: Trump 69, Rubio 22, Cruz 15
Oklahoma: Trump 65, Cruz 24 (Bid: 23), Rubio 24 (Bid: 16)
Virginia: Trump 63, Rubio 43, Cruz 8
Minnesota: Trump 51, Rubio 42, Cruz 15
Texas: Cruz 77, Trump 32, Rubio 6

Spreads should decrease a bit once SC is paid out.

Shorting Trump in Minnesota seems like a great bet.

[IceSpear]

Cruz is only tied with Kasich now? Sheesh, that seems like a bit of an overreaction.

They have a good reason. I once thought Cruz was underrated too, but when you actually look at the nitty gritty, the math becomes very tough for him. Particularly since he just finished 3rd in a state he was either supposed to win or make very close.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz narrowly ahead of Kasich for third place now.  Meanwhile, Clinton’s over 50/50 to win the presidency, while Rubio’s in second place.  Bloomberg’s now in fifth place.

Democrats
Clinton 86.3
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Trump 49.3
Rubio 46.3
Cruz 2.8
Kasich 2.6
Ryan 0.6
Romney 0.5
Carson 0.5

Winning Individual
Clinton 55.6
Rubio 19.0
Trump 16.3
Sanders 6.2
Bloomberg 1.6
Cruz 1.1

[eric82oslo]

Cruz is only tied with Kasich now? Sheesh, that seems like a bit of an overreaction.

They have a good reason. I once thought Cruz was underrated too, but when you actually look at the nitty gritty, the math becomes very tough for him. Particularly since he just finished 3rd in a state he was either supposed to win or make very close.

It's called negative campaigning from Trump. Don't put too much into it. I don't exactly believe in Cruz either, but you're putting way too much into a single poor state. It's like claiming that Kasich was chanceless because he basically got no votes in Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump above 50 again, as he gets some breathing room from Rubio.  On the Dem. side, Sanders continues the decline he’s had since losing Nevada.

Up: Trump
Down: Sanders, Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 86.2
Sanders 11.6

Republicans
Trump 52.4
Rubio 44.8
Cruz 2.5
Kasich 2.4
Ryan 0.6
Romney 0.5
Carson 0.4

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

TRUMP 73
Lavenous Homo 28
Maple Syrup 6

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Trump, and big drop for Rubio.  Kasich retakes 3rd place from Cruz.

Up: Clinton, Trump
Down: Rubio, Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 88.5
Sanders 12.8
Biden 2.9

Republicans
Trump 66.7
Rubio 31.0
Kasich 1.6
Cruz 1.5
Romney 0.7
Bush 0.6
Ryan 0.6
Carson 0.4

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3207591#msg3207591

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1461354#msg1461354

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[Mr. Morden]

Trump passes 70 in the GOP nomination market.

Democrats
Clinton 87.7
Sanders 12.2

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Rubio 26.6
Cruz 2.4
Kasich 2.1
Ryan 0.7
Romney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Carson 0.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 56.2
Trump 25.4
Rubio 13.1
Sanders 6.0
Bloomberg 1.6

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Rubio gains a little, but still more than 40 percentage points behind Trump.

Up: Rubio
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 88.5
Sanders 11.6

Republicans
Trump 69.0
Rubio 28.8
Cruz 2.1
Kasich 1.5
Bush 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Romney 0.5
Carson 0.2

[IceSpear]

Not surprising the market is finally learning to hedge against the "Trump collapsing!" narrative. They'll want some evidence first. Though it would be truly hilarious if this was the one time it turned out to be true.

I wonder how much of Sanders' odds are just people thinking Hillary will be indicted. Pretty much everything since Nevada has been dreadful news for him, but that 10-15% is shockingly resilient.

[Ronnie]

Honestly, I think Trump should be at 80-90.  He leads Rubio by 16-20 points in Florida, and even beats him in a 1 vs. 1 match up in that state according to PPP.  What can realistically happen over the next few weeks to move the needle so drastically in Rubio's favor?

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton surges over 90, with Sanders dropping below 10.  Trump surges big, going past 75, while Rubio correspondingly drops.  Meanwhile, the VP markets are still very lightly traded, so I wouldn’t read much into them.  But the market now has Christie as 2nd favorite to be the Republican VP nominee, after Kasich.  I’m guessing his Trump endorsement had something to do with that.

Up: Clinton, Trump
Down: Sanders, Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 8.4

Republicans
Trump 76.3
Rubio 21.7
Kasich 2.4
Cruz 2.2
Romney 0.8
Bush 0.8
Ryan 0.7
Carson 0.3

Democratic VP nominee
Castro 36.8
Kaine 13.9
Booker 12.8
O’Malley 12.5
Warren 12.5
Sanders 8.3

Republican VP nominee
Kasich 33.3
Christie 29.0
Haley 10.0
Fiorina 9.5
Rubio 9.5
Cruz 6.7

[Swedge]

Here comes the money!

[Mr. Morden]

Post-South Carolina, Sanders has really collapsed in the markets.  Now below 5.

Up: Clinton, Trump, Romney
Down: Sanders, Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 95.2
Sanders 4.8

Republicans
Trump 77.5
Rubio 18.3
Cruz 2.3
Kasich 2.1
Romney 1.9
Ryan 0.5
Bush 0.3
Carson 0.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 62.1
Trump 26.3
Rubio 8.1
Sanders 2.3
Bloomberg 1.5

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Post-South Carolina, Sanders has really collapsed in the markets.  Now below 5.

Up: Clinton, Trump, Romney
Down: Sanders, Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 95.2
Sanders 4.8

Republicans
Trump 77.5
Rubio 18.3
Cruz 2.3
Kasich 2.1
Romney 1.9
Ryan 0.5
Bush 0.3
Carson 0.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 62.1
Trump 26.3
Rubio 8.1
Sanders 2.3
Bloomberg 1.5

Poor Sanders... I'm serious. He's a good guy who believes passionately and wants the best.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

[Lyin' Steve]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

Even now?

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Please don't jynx it until he drops out.

[Phony Moderate]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

Well, if you give him majority odds then he surely has it, no?

[Ronnie]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

He's going to get demolished on Super Tuesday, and is down 20 points in his home state.  How on earth did you arrive at 49%?

[Sir Mohamed]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

He's going to get demolished on Super Tuesday, and is down 20 points in his home state.  How on earth did you arrive at 49%?

Maybe wishful thinking; I have to admit, although I don't support Marco at all. If Rubio performs well on Super Tuesday, it may come down a head-to-head race. The Trumpster may lose this, since he's a poor debater and has so much opposition within the Republican Party.

[The Other Castro]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

He's going to get demolished on Super Tuesday, and is down 20 points in his home state.  How on earth did you arrive at 49%?

Maybe wishful thinking; I have to admit, although I don't support Marco at all. If Rubio performs well on Super Tuesday, it may come down a head-to-head race. The Trumpster may lose this, since he's a poor debater and has so much opposition within the Republican Party.

Fall of 2015 called, they want their misconceptions about Donald Trump back.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

He's going to get demolished on Super Tuesday, and is down 20 points in his home state.  How on earth did you arrive at 49%?

Maybe wishful thinking; I have to admit, although I don't support Marco at all. If Rubio performs well on Super Tuesday, it may come down a head-to-head race. The Trumpster may lose this, since he's a poor debater and has so much opposition within the Republican Party.

A. Trump is a fantastic debater. Went at it for 30 minutes last time out.
B. There are very likely to be no more debates since Trump is the presumptive nominee at this point

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Super Tuesday update…

Democrats
Clinton 95.2
Sanders 4.5

Republicans
Trump 79.4
Rubio 17.7
Cruz 2.5
Kasich 2.3
Romney 1.2
Ryan 0.7
Walker 0.6
Carson 0.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3214626#msg3214626

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1475010#msg1475010

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What will the market look like post-Super Tuesday?