latest Betfair odds

[PresidentTRUMP]

Trump vs. Hillary in the general....Mr. Trump will dig up every last piece of dirt on both Clintons and publicly release them in speeches. Its gonna get real ugly.

President Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Christie/Fiorina dropout, pre-Democratic debate update:

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 19.3

Republicans
Trump 43.3
Rubio 23.6
Cruz 18.6
Bush 13.4
Kasich 2.8
Ryan 0.6
Romney 0.3
Carson 0.3

Winning Individual
Clinton 51.5
Trump 14.9
Rubio 10.0
Sanders 9.1
Bush 5.8
Cruz 5.5
Bloomberg 2.5

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 79.4
Sanders 18.6

Republicans
Trump 42.6
Rubio 24.2
Cruz 18.3
Bush 13.4
Kasich 2.9
Ryan 1.0
Romney 0.9
Carson 0.3

Winning Individual
Clinton 51.5
Trump 14.9
Rubio 10.0
Sanders 9.1
Bush 5.8
Cruz 5.5
Bloomberg 2.5

Dem. Nevada caucus
Clinton 72.5
Sanders 28.2

GOP SC primary
Trump 78.1
Cruz 22.2
Rubio 3.7
Bush 2.2

[°Leprechaun]

Sanders is on the rise. Buy a seat belt; he is catching up to Clinton. Don't be surprised if he gets elected in November. Get yourself ready for him; he could easily win.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update:

Up: Trump, Rubio
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 79.4
Sanders 18.6

Republicans
Trump 45.5
Rubio 25.4
Cruz 14.5
Bush 13.4
Kasich 3.4
Ryan 0.7
Romney 0.6
Carson 0.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3195452#msg3195452

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[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sanders is on the rise. Buy a seat belt; he is catching up to Clinton. Don't be surprised if he gets elected in November. Get yourself ready for him; he could easily win.

Sanders and Clinton dropped by the same amount since the Debate.  Best calm down. There's a long way to go.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Clinton, Trump, Rubio
Down: Sanders, Cruz, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 17.4

Republicans
Trump 47.2
Rubio 27.3
Cruz 12.8
Bush 11.4
Kasich 3.1
Ryan 0.6
Romney 0.5
Carson 0.2

Nevada Dem. caucus
Clinton 56.2
Sanders 49.0

South Carolina GOP primary
Trump 90.9
Cruz 8.8
Rubio 4.5

[Beet]

Does anyone here actually live in the U.K.? 17.4 seems low for Sanders, given that he ties with southern whites (inference: he leads with northern whites) and the average deficit of two Virginia polls is 7.5. Even if Clinton ends up securing the nomination, his number will rise substantially from 17.4. A rise to 25 at any point in the cycle will net a 44% return, in a matter of weeks or months. Well compensated hedge fund managers can put that in their pipes, eh?

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio on the rebound.  Now back above 30.  Cruz also up.  At least on the odds to win the nomination.  On the odds to win the South Carolina primary, Trump is stronger than ever.

Up: Rubio, Cruz
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 17.7

Republicans
Trump 45.0
Rubio 31.4
Cruz 14.1
Bush 10.5
Kasich 2.6
Romney 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Carson 0.2

NV Dem caucus
Clinton 57.8
Sanders 46.3

SC GOP primary
Trump 92.6
Rubio 6.8
Cruz 4.5

[jaichind]

Bush seems too high.

[Lyin' Steve]

Bush has less than sixty hours to live in this race.  On Sunday all these gamblers who were giving him double-digit odds to win this entire time will feel silly.

[President Johnson]

Bush seems too high.

Way off yes. There's absolutely no 10% chance of Mr. low energy

[Mr. Morden]

Bush collapse…

Up: Trump
Down: Bush

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 18.3

Republicans
Trump 47.2
Rubio 31.0
Cruz 13.8
Bush 5.0
Kasich 3.4
Ryan 0.8
Romney 0.7
Carson 0.2

[Eraserhead]

I guess people are finally to starting to accept the fact that he's going to be out of the race by Sunday. He shouldn't even be ahead of Kasich.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio now surging like mad in the GOP nomination market.

Up: Rubio
Down: Trump, Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 18.6

Republicans
Trump 44.1
Rubio 39.7
Cruz 10.5
Bush 4.8
Kasich 2.9
Ryan 0.8
Romney 0.7
Carson 0.2

Nevada Dems
Clinton 64.5
Sanders 39.4

South Carolina GOP
Trump 90.9
Cruz 7.8
Rubio 7.0

OK, so we’re less than 24 hours away from knowing the outcome of both NV and SC.  The market believes that Trump will win SC, but the uncertainty is over how big the margin will be, whether Rubio trounces Bush/Kasich and gets them to drop out, etc.  What kind of result would be required to move Trump above 50?  And what kind of result would be required for Rubio to catch up to Trump?

[IceSpear]

Rubio now surging like mad in the GOP nomination market.

Yup. Those reading the tea leaves are starting to see the fix is in. If he finishes 2nd, I expect that to surge into the 60s/70s.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I find the skittishness of the GOP market so strange.

[Mr. Morden]

It’s all about Trump and Rubio on the GOP side now, as Bush is out and Cruz’s share price has collapsed.  Someone actually bought a share of Romney at 5.3 to put him in third place.

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 15.8

Republicans
Trump 51.5
Rubio 42.2
Romney 5.3
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 2.8
Carson 2.6

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

What if that one person that bought the Romney share was Mitt himself lol.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Cruz is more likely than Sanders. Geez, so short sighted.

[Eraserhead]

I'm surprised Sanders didn't take a bigger hit tonight but then again I was also a little surprised that he didn't get more of a bump for winning New Hampshire by 22.4%.

[eric82oslo]

I'm surprised Sanders didn't take a bigger hit tonight but then again I was also a little surprised that he didn't get more of a bump for winning New Hampshire by 22.4%.

According to 538's projections, Sanders did by far his best job tonight. He was less than 3% behind his perfect result, which would give him a brokered convention. Even with his 23% massive win in New Hampshire, he was still about 5% behind 538's expected result from that state, which was 28%. Nevada is easily Sanders biggest success to date (if you're a pure matemathics/science guy that is lol).

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Trump retreats below 50, as Rubio closes the gap.  Cruz and Kasich now tied for third.

Up: Rubio
Down: Sanders, Trump, Romney, Carson

Democrats
Clinton 83.3
Sanders 14.1

Republicans
Trump 49.3
Rubio 45.5
Cruz 2.6
Kasich 2.6
Ryan 0.6
Carson 0.5
Romney 0.5

[President Johnson]

Update: Trump retreats below 50, as Rubio closes the gap.  Cruz and Kasich now tied for third.

Up: Rubio
Down: Sanders, Trump, Romney, Carson

Democrats
Clinton 83.3
Sanders 14.1

Republicans
Trump 49.3
Rubio 45.5
Cruz 2.6
Kasich 2.6
Ryan 0.6
Carson 0.5
Romney 0.5

LOL. TRUMP down although he won big.

[Alcon]

It's probably the markets reacting to the rumored Romney endorsement, and starting to assume the non-Trump vote will consolidate more around Rubio.