latest Betfair odds

[Phony Moderate]

Overreacting over one state.

Still, the case has to be made for a one-day 50-state primary. The fact that a few thousand knobs in Iowa have such a disproportionately high influence in selecting the president is outrageous.

[Zanas]

Not Betfair, but politicaloddschecker. Explain this :

Hillary Clinton   72%   -3.9%   -3.4%   -11.4%
Bernie Sanders   14%   -3.2%   -4.1%   +3.6%
John Kerry   8%   +7.4%   +7.4%   +7.3%
Joe Biden   5%   +2.1%   +2.5%   +4.4%
Martin OMalley   1%   +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.2%

Variations are for the day, then week, then month. So the tie in Iowa prompted bettors to give John Kerry a 7 pt bump and Joe Biden a 2 pt bump. I sort of get Joe Biden who actually was interested just a couple of months ago, and could settle a bloody tie, but has John Kerry even expressed any interest at all ? This is wild.

Also on the same, Cruz actually gets a minor decrease in his odds, whereas Rubio surges pass Trump, and Bush finally falls somewhat below 10%.

Marco Rubio   38%   +9.6%   +11.8%   +7.0%
Donald Trump   35%   -6.1%   -6.0%   +10.4%
Ted Cruz   11%   -0.3%   -1.5%   -11.5%
Jeb Bush   6%   -2.6%   -2.7%   -2.2%
Chris Christie   3%   -0.3%   -0.6%   -3.2%
John Kasich   2%   +0.3%   +0.2%   +1.2%

[IceSpear]

Overreacting over one state.

Still, the case has to be made for a one-day 50-state primary. The fact that a few thousand knobs in Iowa have such a disproportionately high influence in selecting the president is outrageous.

I've always favored the ideas of states voting in blocks.

[Phony Moderate]

Not Betfair, but politicaloddschecker. Explain this :

Hillary Clinton   72%   -3.9%   -3.4%   -11.4%
Bernie Sanders   14%   -3.2%   -4.1%   +3.6%
John Kerry   8%   +7.4%   +7.4%   +7.3%
Joe Biden   5%   +2.1%   +2.5%   +4.4%
Martin OMalley   1%   +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.2%

Variations are for the day, then week, then month. So the tie in Iowa prompted bettors to give John Kerry a 7 pt bump and Joe Biden a 2 pt bump. I sort of get Joe Biden who actually was interested just a couple of months ago, and could settle a bloody tie, but has John Kerry even expressed any interest at all ? This is wild.

Kerry would obviously be talked about in the event of a brokered convention. But Biden would likely get it in that event.

[Mr. Morden]

The Democratic race hasn’t actually changed that much since yesterday, but the Republican race has changed dramatically, with Rubio not only taking the lead, but topping 50, while Trump crashes to 27.  Cruz also gains and Bush drops.

Up: Sanders, Rubio, Cruz
Down: Clinton, Trump, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 20.0

Republicans
Rubio 53.2
Trump 27.0
Cruz 14.9
Bush 4.8
Christie 1.3
Kasich 1.2
Ryan 1.1
Romney 0.9
Huckabee 0.6
Carson 0.4

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'll be laughing my ass off when Rubio gets crushed in the next contests and the dupes who bought him lose their money.   

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'll be laughing my ass off when Rubio gets crushed in the next contests and the dupes who bought him lose their money.   

The Rubio investors are buy-and-hold, not day traders.  If you're looking for a quick buck, buy Cruz now and dump after SEC Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio gains even more, now more than double Trump’s price…

Democrats
Clinton 82.0
Sanders 19.3

Republicans
Rubio 56.2
Trump 26.6
Cruz 14.5
Bush 4.3
Christie 1.3
Kasich 1.3
Romney 0.7
Jindal 0.6
Ryan 0.5
Carson 0.3

Trump still favored in NH, but not by as much as before…

New Hampshire Repubs
Trump 62.1
Rubio 35.0
Cruz 13.2

[Eraserhead]

What are the numbers for Clinton and Sanders in New Hampshire atm?

[Mr. Morden]

What are the numbers for Clinton and Sanders in New Hampshire atm?

NH Dems:

Sanders 92.6
Clinton 10.9

[PresidentTRUMP]

Crazy how after one primary in a state like Iowa changes there odds so drastically. Doesn't make sense to me at all. At the end of the day, the end result ended up:

Delegates

Cruz - 8
Trump - 7
Rubio - 7

So much is made of Iowa and basically for winning Iowa Cruz ended up with ONE more delegate. Who cares. The states that actually matter are the winner takes all as Iowa pretty clearly showed IMO.

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before the GOP debate…

Up: Bush
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 18.6

Republicans
Rubio 56.8
Trump 24.8
Cruz 13.8
Bush 6.4
Kasich 1.2
Christie 0.8
Ryan 0.5
Romney 0.3
Carson 0.2
Fiorina 0.2

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Lavenous 44
TRUMP 37
Cubano de Canada 18
Low Energy 9
Lehman Bros 6
High Energy 3
Paul Ryan 2

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Rubio headed down…

Up: Trump, Bush, Kasich, Christie
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 18.3

Republicans
Rubio 50.3
Trump 27.0
Cruz 13.4
Bush 7.8
Kasich 2.2
Christie 1.9
Ryan 1.1
Carson 0.8
Romney 0.2
Fiorina 0.2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am glad Rubio stock will go down

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

All eyes are on the second place in NH market at this point, so I'll post those odds:

Rubio 39 (-11)
Kasich 36 (+9)
Cruz 14 (+5)
Bush 11 (+3)
Trump 10 (-2)
Christie 3 (-2)

Those deltas are since midnight I believe so that's why you see Christie down in spite of the debate performance. Got overbought immediately.

I don't know how anyone could be in this market with any degree of certainty. We'll see if Kasich takes it over tomorrow after the three polls showing him in that slot today.

[Mr. Morden]

Yet more gains for Trump and Bush, offset by losses for Rubio.  Cruz continues to stand in place.  He’s down a little since the initial hours after his Iowa victory, but hasn’t changed nearly as much as the others.

Up: Trump, Bush
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 82.0
Sanders 18.3

Republicans
Rubio 43.3
Trump 31.4
Cruz 13.4
Bush 9.1
Christie 2.4
Kasich 2.1
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.7
Carson 0.3
Fiorina 0.2

New Hamsphire Dems
Sanders 98.0
Clinton 5.4

New Hampshire GOP
Trump 82.6
Rubio 8.3
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 2.5
Bush 2.4

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-NH update…

Up: Sanders, Bush
Down: Clinton, Trump

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 20.0

Republicans
Rubio 43.7
Trump 30.0
Cruz 13.8
Bush 10.5
Kasich 2.9
Christie 2.1
Romney 0.9
Ryan 0.5
Carson 0.4
Fiorina 0.1

Any guesses as to what those #s will be in 24 hours?

[The Other Castro]

If it goes the way I think it will, Kasich should surge past 5 or 6 while Rubio crashes to possibly under 35 and Trump should rise back to mid/high 30s. Sanders should go up a few points as well.

[Holmes]

Tonight will be the best time to buy Hillary stocks because the price will go down after she loses New Hampshire.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Any guesses as to what those #s will be in 24 hours?

For the GOP tonight is a referendum on how badly Rubio hurt himself.  Rubio won't lose votes to Trump, but he will lose them to Kasich and Christie.  So... Trump doesn't have to exceed expectations for his stock to rise.  The alternate establishments just have to have a good night.  See Trump pull back ahead of Rubio *puke*.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-NH update: Trump back on top, as Rubio crashes.  Kasich gains very little for his 2nd place showing.

Up: Trump, Cruz, Bush
Down: Rubio, Christie, Clinton

Democrats
Clinton 78.7
Sanders 19.3

Republicans
Trump 41.0
Rubio 24.2
Cruz 18.3
Bush 13.4
Kasich 3.4
Ryan 0.9
Romney 0.8
Christie 0.7
Carson 0.3
Fiorina 0.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3191392#msg3191392

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1437399#msg1437399

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Rubio crapped the bed much, much worse than I thought he would.

Cruz has a floor due to his SEC firewall.

[Volrath50]

I'm surprised Kasich is so low. I really doubt he's going to win the nomination, but I think his chances are higher than 3%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm surprised Kasich is so low. I really doubt he's going to win the nomination, but I think his chances are higher than 3%.

Unless he picks up some public support from the establishment (endorsements, donations, etc.) his primary performances are meaningless.