2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270 (user search)
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  2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270  (Read 13807 times)
bedstuy
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« on: January 30, 2014, 01:57:47 PM »

Maybe that's true if you hold the rest of the dynamics constant.  However, the reason behind the reapportionment is population change.  You have to ask yourself, is the United States going to be a more demographically friendly country to the GOP in 6 years?  Probably not. 
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bedstuy
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Posts: 4,526


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.35

« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2014, 08:41:45 AM »

FL won't be trending D for long if the GOP starts to court Hispanics more, which they are already starting to.

How?
Immigration reform, and of course, the new anti poverty agenda by Rubio.

Regardless of whether that's true, which I doubt, what if the Hispanic population of Florida increases?  Couldn't that offset any percentage gains Republicans could hypothetically make based on immigration reform or whatever Rubio said?
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bedstuy
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Posts: 4,526


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.35

« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2014, 05:14:17 PM »

A few points:

Just to reiterate, if Democrats win 2% less Hispanic voters in 2016, but there are 1% more Hispanic voters total, that's going to cut against the hypothetical Republican net gain. 

Obama did worse than Hillary in the 2008 primaries among Hispanics.  It's a viable hypothesis that Clinton will outperform Obama among Hispanics.  Bill Clinton in 1996 actually did better than Obama among Hispanics, correct?

Hispanics are not single issue voters on immigration regulation.  I would wager certain Hispanic American groups, especially Puerto Ricans, are not extremely driven by that issue. 

Also, IF the immigration bill passes, (it probably won't) there's no guarantee that people will credit Republicans for whatever positives they see.  Obama and the Democrats could get more of the credit, improving Democratic chances in the future.

Republicans have been systemically avoiding a Hispanic outreach effort since 2005 and the failure of the McCain immigration bill.  It might not be an easy or quick process to win people back.
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bedstuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,526


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.35

« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2014, 05:20:19 PM »

The thing is, Bill Clinton became less popular with Cubans after the incident, which Republicans will likely bring back up.

Are the Republicans also going to campaign on how we're not prepared for Y2K?
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