2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270 (user search)
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  2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270  (Read 13803 times)
pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,841
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« on: January 05, 2016, 08:32:31 AM »

A few points:

Just to reiterate, if Democrats win 2% less Hispanic voters in 2016, but there are 1% more Hispanic voters total, that's going to cut against the hypothetical Republican net gain. 

Obama did worse than Hillary in the 2008 primaries among Hispanics.  It's a viable hypothesis that Clinton will outperform Obama among Hispanics.  Bill Clinton in 1996 actually did better than Obama among Hispanics, correct?

Hispanics are not single issue voters on immigration regulation.  I would wager certain Hispanic American groups, especially Puerto Ricans, are not extremely driven by that issue. 

Also, IF the immigration bill passes, (it probably won't) there's no guarantee that people will credit Republicans for whatever positives they see.  Obama and the Democrats could get more of the credit, improving Democratic chances in the future.

Republicans have been systemically avoiding a Hispanic outreach effort since 2005 and the failure of the McCain immigration bill.  It might not be an easy or quick process to win people back.

Yeah I don't think Immigration Reform is much of a factor for Puerto Ricans and which party they vote for but most Puerto Ricans live in the Northeast where its socially liberal so they vote Dem anyway. I know some Puerto Ricans are moving to the Orlando area where they still vote Dem. Must be Puerto Ricans moving South from the Northeast.

...as significantly from Puerto Rico itself due to the fiscal calamity in the Commonwealth. Some polls from Quinnipiac show Florida sharply going Democratic in 2016 while Pennsylvania drifts R. The large Hispanic presence (are Cuban-Americans that different in culture from Puerto Ricans?) and of course a tropical (Miami) or near-tropical (Orlando, Tampa-St. Pete) climate, and Florida seems much more similar to Puerto Rico than most of the rest of the USA. 

We shall soon see more Florida polls.
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