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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270
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Author Topic: 2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270  (Read 12882 times)
MurrayBannerman
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« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2014, 11:04:51 pm »

Here's a smart idea for the GOP, try to go after ALL the states and not just 270. They might just get up to 300 electoral votes.
No, that's too hard. Must get the bare minimum.

People wonder why we have a veil of frustration...
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Sol
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« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2014, 11:30:45 pm »

FL won't be trending D for long if the GOP starts to court Hispanics more, which they are already starting to.

How?
Immigration reform, and of course, the new anti poverty agenda by Rubio.

A lot of Floridian Latinos are Puerto Rican.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2014, 04:06:22 am »

Cuban Floridians are actually very, very quickly trending Democratic, so Florida Hispanics are actually more and more likely to vote Democratic in heavier numbers, not Republican. That's one of the reasons why Florida is changing so fast these days, one of the reason why Hillary can have a 7-8% lead in the state already.
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stevekamp
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« Reply #28 on: March 13, 2014, 07:38:49 pm »

Keep in mind that Washington State gained 1 EV in 2010, Oregon barely missed one, and California Dept. of Finance believes CA was undercounted to the tune of two US House seats.
To be sure, RI will probably go down to one seat, and Maine may as well. 

The Red Fort rural states will also lose EVs.  Texas will gain, but so will Florida, meaning Rs absolutely have to win its current 29 or future 30+ EVs 
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hopper
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« Reply #29 on: March 15, 2014, 03:59:40 pm »

A few points:

Just to reiterate, if Democrats win 2% less Hispanic voters in 2016, but there are 1% more Hispanic voters total, that's going to cut against the hypothetical Republican net gain. 

Obama did worse than Hillary in the 2008 primaries among Hispanics.  It's a viable hypothesis that Clinton will outperform Obama among Hispanics.  Bill Clinton in 1996 actually did better than Obama among Hispanics, correct?

Hispanics are not single issue voters on immigration regulation.  I would wager certain Hispanic American groups, especially Puerto Ricans, are not extremely driven by that issue. 

Also, IF the immigration bill passes, (it probably won't) there's no guarantee that people will credit Republicans for whatever positives they see.  Obama and the Democrats could get more of the credit, improving Democratic chances in the future.

Republicans have been systemically avoiding a Hispanic outreach effort since 2005 and the failure of the McCain immigration bill.  It might not be an easy or quick process to win people back.

Yeah I don't think Immigration Reform is much of a factor for Puerto Ricans and which party they vote for but most Puerto Ricans live in the Northeast where its socially liberal so they vote Dem anyway. I know some Puerto Ricans are moving to the Orlando area where they still vote Dem. Must be Puerto Ricans moving South from the Northeast.
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hopper
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« Reply #30 on: March 15, 2014, 04:02:53 pm »

Republicans need to stop going for just 270. That strategy of just getting to 270 makes the map considerably narrow, which is a problem. If one state doesn't work out, then the entire house of cards comes crashing down. The GOP needs to make significant efforts in several states, but especially Pennsylvania, and make sure Florida doesn't slip away (which would be a huge problem). I do not mean Romney's delusion that he was going to win in a blowout, so he started throwing money into Minnesota and Pennsylvania in the last few weeks. I mean sustained efforts over the years. If it doesn't work out in one cycle, at least the infrastructure is in place to make continued efforts. But the bottom line is, the path to victory is way too narrow for Republicans right now, and they have to do something about that.
Well Romney thought he had a shot to win those states. PA was pretty close to the National average in terms of the popular vote. Maybe MN he shouldn't have gone for.
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hopper
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« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2014, 04:05:25 pm »

Keep in mind that Washington State gained 1 EV in 2010, Oregon barely missed one, and California Dept. of Finance believes CA was undercounted to the tune of two US House seats.
To be sure, RI will probably go down to one seat, and Maine may as well. 

The Red Fort rural states will also lose EVs.  Texas will gain, but so will Florida, meaning Rs absolutely have to win its current 29 or future 30+ EVs 
CA was projected to gain a couple seats mid decade in the 2000's but than the housing crisis happened....
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hopper
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« Reply #32 on: March 15, 2014, 04:09:57 pm »

FL won't be trending D for long if the GOP starts to court Hispanics more, which they are already starting to.
Buy VA will be gone for the GOP by 2020.
Its not about just courting Hispanics the GOP has to stop saying stupid things about Hispanics. See what I learned this week when a GOP politician says a stupid thing about Hispanics you are speaking for the party not only yourself. The NRCC has to say look you don't get campaign money if you do make stupid comments about Hispanics.
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hopper
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« Reply #33 on: March 15, 2014, 04:14:16 pm »

What is wrong here is the assumption that the voting pattern would be the same.

For example, sure, North Carolina may gain more electoral votes, but that's because of population growth in Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area (known as the Research Triangle) and in Charlotte which is moving the state as a whole to the left.
I remember when Charlotte was NASCAR country. Have times have changed. Not all the research triangle area is growing I don't think though. A couple of counties are growing population wise below the research triangle.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #34 on: January 04, 2016, 02:09:18 pm »

The 2020 Reapportionment update continues to indicate the GOP will need one less state to reach an Electoral College win of 270.  Of course this assumes the easiest path to 270 will be to win the 2012 Romney states, plus FL, OH and VA.  As previous posters have indicated, demographic changes will make this more difficult, but its hard for me to see any other path to 270 for a G|OP candidate.  Less likely options might include the GOP winning PA instead of VA, or both CO and NH instead of VA.

According to the The Election Data Service, six states will add electoral votes and 9 states will lose Electoral votes after the next census, for a net GOP gain of 4:
https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/NR_Appor15wTables.pdf

TX +3   AL-1
FL+2    IL-1
AZ+1   MI-1
CO+1   MN-1
NC+1   NY-1
OR+1   OH-1
            PA-1
            RI-1
            WV-1


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: January 05, 2016, 08:32:31 am »

A few points:

Just to reiterate, if Democrats win 2% less Hispanic voters in 2016, but there are 1% more Hispanic voters total, that's going to cut against the hypothetical Republican net gain. 

Obama did worse than Hillary in the 2008 primaries among Hispanics.  It's a viable hypothesis that Clinton will outperform Obama among Hispanics.  Bill Clinton in 1996 actually did better than Obama among Hispanics, correct?

Hispanics are not single issue voters on immigration regulation.  I would wager certain Hispanic American groups, especially Puerto Ricans, are not extremely driven by that issue. 

Also, IF the immigration bill passes, (it probably won't) there's no guarantee that people will credit Republicans for whatever positives they see.  Obama and the Democrats could get more of the credit, improving Democratic chances in the future.

Republicans have been systemically avoiding a Hispanic outreach effort since 2005 and the failure of the McCain immigration bill.  It might not be an easy or quick process to win people back.

Yeah I don't think Immigration Reform is much of a factor for Puerto Ricans and which party they vote for but most Puerto Ricans live in the Northeast where its socially liberal so they vote Dem anyway. I know some Puerto Ricans are moving to the Orlando area where they still vote Dem. Must be Puerto Ricans moving South from the Northeast.

...as significantly from Puerto Rico itself due to the fiscal calamity in the Commonwealth. Some polls from Quinnipiac show Florida sharply going Democratic in 2016 while Pennsylvania drifts R. The large Hispanic presence (are Cuban-Americans that different in culture from Puerto Ricans?) and of course a tropical (Miami) or near-tropical (Orlando, Tampa-St. Pete) climate, and Florida seems much more similar to Puerto Rico than most of the rest of the USA. 

We shall soon see more Florida polls.
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