UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Phony Moderate]

So, a 5-point win for UKIP then?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

If Heywood and Middleton is won by UKIP, I will eat my hat.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

If Heywood and Middleton is won by UKIP, I will eat my hat.

That's terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[Lief 🗽]

Survation (just realized this is a portmanteau of survey and nation, haha) poll of of Rochester & Strood:

UKIP 40
Con 31
Lab 25
LD 2
Other 1

Looks like Reckless has not been as reckless as some thought.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Survation (just realized this is a portmanteau of survey and nation, haha) poll of of Rochester & Strood:

UKIP 40
Con 31
Lab 25
LD 2
Other 1

Looks like Reckless has not been as reckless as some thought.

On another positive note, it looks like the split on the right between the Tories & UKIP won't let Labour win this seat.

[DL]

I wonder if Labour will quietly encourage its voters in Rochester to vote tactically for UKIP since a UKIP win there agianst the Tories would give UKIP huge momentum and likely be lethal to David Cameron.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if Labour will quietly encourage its voters in Rochester to vote tactically for UKIP since a UKIP win there agianst the Tories would give UKIP huge momentum and likely be lethal to David Cameron.

While that's true, there's a lot of issues there; namely that a lot of progressive voters will not like Labour encouraging people to vote for Satan UKIP

I can't imagine Chretien encouraging people to vote Reform or Bloc to spite Kim Campbell. Can you?

[Famous Mortimer]

If Tories could vote for Galloway...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What you do if that's what you want to do is just run dead. Nominate a paper candidate and put in no effort whatsoever. But Labour didn't even run dead in Newark.

[Zanas]

I don't know the specifics of the constituency, but from the figures of the poll only, 40-31-25 is something with room for any of the three to win if they give it a shot, isn't it ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given the usual issues with constituency polling and the general weirdness of by-election, yes.

[andrew_c]

I wonder if Labour will quietly encourage its voters in Rochester to vote tactically for UKIP since a UKIP win there agianst the Tories would give UKIP huge momentum and likely be lethal to David Cameron.

Labour will not encourage a tactical vote for UKIP, because it is a clear electoral threat.
If UKIP gains a lot of momentum, it would deal a serious blow to both Conservatives and Labour.

[DL]

For every one vote UKIP takes from Labour they take three from the Tories. Notice that it's the Tories who are at risk of losing previously safe seats to UKIP, labour will easily retain its seat in a Byelection on Thursday

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another poll (usual caveats apply, etc) of Heywood & Middleton, this time by Lord Ashcroft:

Labour 47, UKIP 28, Con 16, LDem 5, Green 4

[DL]

Another poll (usual caveats apply, etc) of Heywood & Middleton, this time by Lord Ashcroft:

Labour 47, UKIP 28, Con 16, LDem 5, Green 4

Like I was saying - UKIP poses no threat to Labour held seats - but has the potential to be lethal to the Tories...

[You kip if you want to...]

Another poll (usual caveats apply, etc) of Heywood & Middleton, this time by Lord Ashcroft:

Labour 47, UKIP 28, Con 16, LDem 5, Green 4

Like I was saying - UKIP poses no threat to Labour held seats - but has the potential to be lethal to the Tories...

This isn't really true, but okay.

You're right saying that they're more of a problem for the Tories, but they pose a threat to Labour in some parts as well, much in the same way the LibDems spent 15 years clawing themselves into Labour heartlands on councils and in some parliamentary seats, despite being (even pre-coalition) a party without policies and without principles.

Labour +7 in a seat like this is okay, but not great considering the Libs got like 25% here last time. Labour gaining votes from LibDems is disguising them losing some small parts of their (older, whiter, manlier) base. Just look at by-elections earlier in the parliament, like Middlesborough and Barnsley, where Labour did much better than Ashcroft or Survation are predicting here in Middleton.

[DL]

Obviously when a party goes from 0% to 28% - some of that support will come from each of the older parties - but again - if you are the Labour Party you have to drool at the thought of all those Lab/Tory marginals where if UKIP goes from 0% to - say - 15% - 3 or 4 points will come from Labour while 10-11 will come from the Tories - all in all the rise of Ukip is good news for Labour in that for the most part it splits the rightwing vote....and in the longterm if the rightwing vote in the UK gets split between the established right (ie: Tories) and the populist, eurosceptic right (ie: UKIP) - its a boon to the Labour party.

[EPG]

Neither Rochester nor Clacton is really a safe Conservative seat; each in their old forms elected Labour MPs in 1997 and 2001, though like many seaside towns they were rather safe for Conservatives before then. In contrast, the other by-election seat has been Labour since the 1970s, even during the nadir of the 1980s.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing about Clacton when it was called Harwich was that it included Harwich; i.e. a ferry port. The Labour candidate also happened to be a man with what almost amounted (and still amounts) to a personality cult in Harwich town. It was one of the more bewildering gains of '97, which says everything.

Rochester has a more complicated electoral history. As Medway it was a safe Conservative seat in the 1980s and early 90s, but saw an immense swing to Labour in '97 (as did the rest of North Kent) and stuck (though only just) with Labour in 2005, before swinging massively back to the Tories in 2010 (as did the rest of North Kent). Rochester was paired with Chatham - the most working class of the Medway towns and the most favourable to Labour - before 1983, and the constituency of Rochester & Chatham changed hands five times between 1950 and 1979.

[Zanas]

Obviously when a party goes from 0% to 28% - some of that support will come from each of the older parties - but again - if you are the Labour Party you have to drool at the thought of all those Lab/Tory marginals where if UKIP goes from 0% to - say - 15% - 3 or 4 points will come from Labour while 10-11 will come from the Tories - all in all the rise of Ukip is good news for Labour in that for the most part it splits the rightwing vote....and in the longterm if the rightwing vote in the UK gets split between the established right (ie: Tories) and the populist, eurosceptic right (ie: UKIP) - its a boon to the Labour party.

Mitterrand tried that thinking here back in the 1980s. Now Hollande is not amused...

[You kip if you want to...]

Obviously when a party goes from 0% to 28% - some of that support will come from each of the older parties - but again - if you are the Labour Party you have to drool at the thought of all those Lab/Tory marginals where if UKIP goes from 0% to - say - 15% - 3 or 4 points will come from Labour while 10-11 will come from the Tories - all in all the rise of Ukip is good news for Labour in that for the most part it splits the rightwing vote....and in the longterm if the rightwing vote in the UK gets split between the established right (ie: Tories) and the populist, eurosceptic right (ie: UKIP) - its a boon to the Labour party.

Only back office strategists really think like this. I think 1 voter leaving Labour for UKIP is 1 voter too many, whether the Tories lose 4 at the same time or not.

Labour's playing with fire in the long-term if they think giving a racist party the space to grow, hoping to harm the Tories, is an okay strategy. It'll come back to haunt them, just look at the PS in France.

[DL]

Mitterrand tried that thinking here back in the 1980s. Now Hollande is not amused...

It worked very well for Mitterrand in the 80s and even now the Front Nationale is a much bigger problem for the traditional right in France than it is for the Socialists. Similarly in Sweden the growth of the Sweden Democrats has caused the rightwing coalition to lose power and the social democrats to regain power. When all is said and done, its all about winning elections and as someone who wants the Labour party to win in may 2015 - I REJOICE at the rise of the UKIP party and how it will drive a huge wedge in the British right...Labour lost election thanks to vote splitting with the SDP and libDems - now its the Tories turn to experience that. Enjoy! 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, the by-elections. Did anyone see the televised debate from Clacton last night? Normally I avoid such things, but had nothing better to do. It was hilariously awful.

[You kip if you want to...]

I REJOICE at the rise of the UKIP party and how it will drive a huge wedge in the British right...Labour lost election thanks to vote splitting with the SDP and libDems - now its the Tories turn to experience that.

This is literally one of the worst thing I've ever read.

One doesn't need to look further than Rochester. If this was a 1945, 1964, 1979, 1997 or even a 2010 moment, there'd be no question that Labour'd take it by about 1-2,000. But no, we'll probably come third because of this 'big-up UKIP' strategy. You can't build a government on the back of Guardian reading LibDems, then assume that Mirror reading Old Labourites have no other choice.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

While I would agree that it makes no sense for Labour to aid any party other than Labour, that's just a teensy weensy bit of a strawman...