What happens in Cuba after the Castros die?

[Sol]

Both Raúl and Fidel are getting up there. What happens after they pass on?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Raul has a handpicked successor who is in his mid fifties and is apparently a "hardliner." I'd imagine they are going to embalm Fidel after he croaks.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Raul is voluntarily stepping down after his term ends in 2018 (might be wrong on that). Even if the immediate successor to Raul is a supposed hardliner, I suspect that political liberalization and improved relations with Washington will come simply because any successor will lack the popular support or respect that the Castros have in the country (despite all of Cuba's problems, the regime is still broadly popular within the country for various reasons)

The main political divide is within the Communist Party, and like in post-Stalinist Russia, Cuba is more of an oligarchy than a dictatorship (Fidel was a dictator in the true meaning, Raul not as much). One path is one economic liberalization (major steps have been taken in that field), which is already bringing money into the country but is also showing that Cuba still has a significant class divide, though less so than most of Latin America. The other is to maintain a mostly socialistic economy while going along with political reforms, which seems to have reared its head after the backlash to that special currency that Cuba used in limited areas for a while.

Given my political leanings I hope they take the latter course, and given my ethnic heritage and general anti-authoritarianism I hope that political liberalization can be done (which, given the current thawing of relations, may come along with a lifting of the embargo/travel ban soon). My father once told me that he wanted me to spread his ashes in Havana when he dies, and I hope I will be able to do that when the time comes.

[morgieb]

The regime loses support and the country becomes a proper democracy. US relations soften.

[eric82oslo]

Given my political leanings I hope they take the latter course, and given my ethnic heritage and general anti-authoritarianism I hope that political liberalization can be done (which, given the current thawing of relations, may come along with a lifting of the embargo/travel ban soon). My father once told me that he wanted me to spread his ashes in Havana when he dies, and I hope I will be able to do that when the time comes.

You can always do that by going through a third country like Mexico, can't you?



A lot will happen in Cuba within the next 10 years, that's my suggestion. Whether it'll still be a dictatorship in 2024 is hard to say. I lean towards democracy by an about 60% inclination. However it won't happen as long as one of the Castro brothers remain alive and still in fair brain activity (not senile), at least I think it'll be unlikely.

[Famous Mortimer]

With the success and popularity of regimes like Venezuela, there is no reason for Cuba to politically liberalize.

They will probably continue to economically liberalize though, because it benefits the elite.

[eric82oslo]

With the success and popularity of regimes like Venezuela, there is no reason for Cuba to politically liberalize.

They will probably continue to economically liberalize though, because it benefits the elite.

It is not really fair to compare the two, as Venezuela probably, like most other Latin American countries, has a higher level of economic inequality than even the US. Needless to say, Cuba has not obviously.

[Famous Mortimer]

It used to but the regime stopped it. It would again if all the Miami Cubans came back.

I don't understand why you say they aren't comparable. They both used to have worse inequality and then the regimes changed that.

I get yeah, not all countries are exactly the same but they're still pretty similar, even the regime leaders play up that fact.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

With the success and popularity of regimes like Venezuela, there is no reason for Cuba to politically liberalize.

They will probably continue to economically liberalize though, because it benefits the elite.

Venezuela is an electoral democracy, and one where the opposition will probably make significant gains in coming elections (also, has more economic equality than the US).

[eric82oslo]

It used to but the regime stopped it. It would again if all the Miami Cubans came back.

I don't understand why you say they aren't comparable. They both used to have worse inequality and then the regimes changed that.

I get yeah, not all countries are exactly the same but they're still pretty similar, even the regime leaders play up that fact.

Venezuela didn't change all that much actually, just like Brazil haven't changed all that much. Sure, the poor are considerably less poor, yet they're still poor. And the rich are still very rich. The inequality between rich and poor in Venezuela is still extreme, and probably more extreme than in the US. Same story with Brazil, although there's no doubt the poor have gotten a (much) better life there as well.

[Niemeyerite]

Castros won't die.