Only Hillary vs Schweitzer How many states Schweitzer may win?

[ericpolitico]

Only Hillary  and  Schweitzer run, how many states he may win?
and also, how long he will stay in the primary?

I think 0  and he will drop out before Super Tuesday.....

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If Hilliary doesn't recruit a better team for her campaign than in 2008, he can probably count on winning a number of caucuses.

[Donerail]

Probably the best scenario for Schweitzer - consolidates the anti-Hillary vote. I could see him winning a number of early states.

[Kevin]

I think someone like Schweitzer would have alot of appeal in Iowa and perhaps NH. So if he were to concentrate on those for now he could have a shot.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Hilliary doesn't recruit a better team for her campaign than in 2008, he can probably count on winning a number of caucuses.

I wonder if she'll pick Mark Penn again. LOL.

[eric82oslo]

If he's running alone against Hillary, and there's noone else in the field, I think he might be able to get up to 30% of the votes - though I seriously doubt he'll have the gravitas and appeal to be able to garner that much support. If he's really lucky, he might be able to reach 32-34% in one or two early caucus states.

He might be on Hillary's shortlist, if in fact he'll be the only candidate to face off with her. Yet I seriously doubt it, as much as he's insulted both her and especially Obama already. I think Hillary is all about confidence, trust and not breaking the unwritten rules - and Brian has basically broken all of them already. They're from two completely different universes basically, they're not compatible with eachother at all. That's at least how Hillary feels/will feel. Brian is a cowboy and he's proud of it - I think Hillary hates all cowboys with her guts lol.

[eric82oslo]

I think someone like Schweitzer would have alot of appeal in Iowa and perhaps NH. So if he were to concentrate on those for now he could have a shot.

Iowa: Sure. NH: Not at all. Not even close! How come you think a cowboy who is 150% more cowboyish in his attitude and mannerism than George W., could have any shot at all in urban, secular, down-to-earth, well-educated New Hampshire? I think not. NHites love guys like Jon Huntsman, which is basically as far from Brian Schweitzer you could possibly come among US politicians. Well except for Barack Obama obviously. There's a reason NH never put their love on next door neighbour Howard Dean. And Schweitzer is even less calm and less down-to-earth and less grandious than him.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I can seriously see him win Iowa.

[Mr. Illini]

Ignoring the momentum factor, this is how I could see it if everyone voted simultaneously.

[Donerail]

I think someone like Schweitzer would have alot of appeal in Iowa and perhaps NH. So if he were to concentrate on those for now he could have a shot.

Iowa: Sure. NH: Not at all. Not even close! How come you think a cowboy who is 150% more cowboyish in his attitude and mannerism than George W., could have any shot at all in urban, secular, down-to-earth, well-educated New Hampshire? I think not. NHites love guys like Jon Huntsman, which is basically as far from Brian Schweitzer you could possibly come among US politicians. Well except for Barack Obama obviously. There's a reason NH never put their love on next door neighbour Howard Dean. And Schweitzer is even less calm and less down-to-earth and less grandious than him.

A down-to-earth, Arabic-speaking, master's-degree-holding, fairly secular cowboy does have a shot in a state that's only 60% urban, yes. Schweitzer's a fairly good fit for New Hampshire - very 'live free or die'.

[H. Ross Peron]

Ignoring the momentum factor, this is how I could see it if everyone voted simultaneously.

Why would Schweitzer beat Clinton in Florida?

[eric82oslo]

I think someone like Schweitzer would have alot of appeal in Iowa and perhaps NH. So if he were to concentrate on those for now he could have a shot.

Iowa: Sure. NH: Not at all. Not even close! How come you think a cowboy who is 150% more cowboyish in his attitude and mannerism than George W., could have any shot at all in urban, secular, down-to-earth, well-educated New Hampshire? I think not. NHites love guys like Jon Huntsman, which is basically as far from Brian Schweitzer you could possibly come among US politicians. Well except for Barack Obama obviously. There's a reason NH never put their love on next door neighbour Howard Dean. And Schweitzer is even less calm and less down-to-earth and less grandious than him.

A down-to-earth, Arabic-speaking, master's-degree-holding, fairly secular cowboy does have a shot in a state that's only 60% urban, yes. Schweitzer's a fairly good fit for New Hampshire - very 'live free or die'.

They don't like their guns, but we'll see. The first Catholic candidate didn't win the presidency (Al Smith in 1920 I think). Nor do I think the first Arabic-speaking candidate will win. Hillary is simply too overwhelming. Brian too much tries to be like Obama; something new and exciting. I think the US is quite ready for something more calming, something more reminiscent of McCain. And that fits Hillary perfectly. Brian won't be able to hit Hillary with the Quran in her head. I don't think Brian will be able to run this advertisement: When the alarm clocks bell out loud in Washington D.C. at 3 o'clock, who would you rather trust? The guy who sleeps with one hand on the Quran or the Lady who never got her ill-planned Health Care Law through Congress?

[whanztastic]

If Hilliary doesn't recruit a better team for her campaign than in 2008, he can probably count on winning a number of caucuses.

I wonder if she'll pick Mark Penn again. LOL.

He's already out.

[Donerail]

I think someone like Schweitzer would have alot of appeal in Iowa and perhaps NH. So if he were to concentrate on those for now he could have a shot.

Iowa: Sure. NH: Not at all. Not even close! How come you think a cowboy who is 150% more cowboyish in his attitude and mannerism than George W., could have any shot at all in urban, secular, down-to-earth, well-educated New Hampshire? I think not. NHites love guys like Jon Huntsman, which is basically as far from Brian Schweitzer you could possibly come among US politicians. Well except for Barack Obama obviously. There's a reason NH never put their love on next door neighbour Howard Dean. And Schweitzer is even less calm and less down-to-earth and less grandious than him.

A down-to-earth, Arabic-speaking, master's-degree-holding, fairly secular cowboy does have a shot in a state that's only 60% urban, yes. Schweitzer's a fairly good fit for New Hampshire - very 'live free or die'.

They don't like their guns, but we'll see. The first Catholic candidate didn't win the presidency (Al Smith in 1920 I think). Nor do I think the first Arabic-speaking candidate will win. Hillary is simply too overwhelming. Brian too much tries to be like Obama; something new and exciting. I think the US is quite ready for something more calming, something more reminiscent of McCain. And that fits Hillary perfectly. Brian won't be able to hit Hillary with the Quran in her head. I don't think Brian will be able to run this advertisement: When the alarm clocks bell out loud in Washington D.C. at 3 o'clock, who would you rather trust? The guy who sleeps with one hand on the Quran or the Lady who never got her ill-planned Health Care Law through Congress?

Guns & Ammo ranks NH as 10th-best nationally for gun rights (ahead of Montana, in 11th), so they do seem to enjoy their guns.

[eric82oslo]

I think someone like Schweitzer would have alot of appeal in Iowa and perhaps NH. So if he were to concentrate on those for now he could have a shot.

Iowa: Sure. NH: Not at all. Not even close! How come you think a cowboy who is 150% more cowboyish in his attitude and mannerism than George W., could have any shot at all in urban, secular, down-to-earth, well-educated New Hampshire? I think not. NHites love guys like Jon Huntsman, which is basically as far from Brian Schweitzer you could possibly come among US politicians. Well except for Barack Obama obviously. There's a reason NH never put their love on next door neighbour Howard Dean. And Schweitzer is even less calm and less down-to-earth and less grandious than him.

A down-to-earth, Arabic-speaking, master's-degree-holding, fairly secular cowboy does have a shot in a state that's only 60% urban, yes. Schweitzer's a fairly good fit for New Hampshire - very 'live free or die'.

They don't like their guns, but we'll see. The first Catholic candidate didn't win the presidency (Al Smith in 1920 I think). Nor do I think the first Arabic-speaking candidate will win. Hillary is simply too overwhelming. Brian too much tries to be like Obama; something new and exciting. I think the US is quite ready for something more calming, something more reminiscent of McCain. And that fits Hillary perfectly. Brian won't be able to hit Hillary with the Quran in her head. I don't think Brian will be able to run this advertisement: When the alarm clocks bell out loud in Washington D.C. at 3 o'clock, who would you rather trust? The guy who sleeps with one hand on the Quran or the Lady who never got her ill-planned Health Care Law through Congress?

Guns & Ammo ranks NH as 10th-best nationally for gun rights (ahead of Montana, in 11th), so they do seem to enjoy their guns.

So sad for them. Hopefully their minds have changed after the child massacre next door though.

[NewYorkExpress]

He'll probably win Nevada and Iowa of the Early states


Clinton picks up New Hampshire... South Carolina is a tossup (do voters remember 2008? Obama's endorsement may be key here)

[Mr. Illini]

Ignoring the momentum factor, this is how I could see it if everyone voted simultaneously.

Why would Schweitzer beat Clinton in Florida?

I was thinking about how Florida broke from the rest of the south in 2008 and voted for her. That was a tougher state for me to call, though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ignoring the momentum factor, this is how I could see it if everyone voted simultaneously.

Why would Schweitzer beat Clinton in Florida?

I was thinking about how Florida broke from the rest of the south in 2008 and voted for her. That was a tougher state for me to call, though.

Florida has a high number of seniors and Hispanics, both groups that favor Clinton. I don't see Schweitzer having much appeal there.

[IceSpear]

Schweitzer MIGHT win Montana.

[BaconBacon96]

I made this a while ago and put in the Random Maps thread.

Clinton is blue and Schweitzer is yellow.

[nolesfan2011]

Iowa, plus a lot of other caucuses, and probably do well in the mountain west, midwest and in the most progressive states such as Oregon.

[Mister Mets]

He could win a lot of states, but it would be a tough road.

Hillary would get a lot of support from women.

She'd do very well with African-American primary voters, due to her support for the first African-American President. I don't see Obama's strongest supporters backing Schweitzer when he's distinguishing himself by being critical of the President. This is significant since in several states, the majority of Democratic primary voters will be African-American.

Schweitzer could peel away some voters who backed Clinton over Obama in '08 (voters with no college degrees, incomes below $30,000) so it could be a different dynamic.

He could also have an opening with voters under 30, who backed Obama over Hillary in most states.

Here's some interesting links on the 2008 primary results.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/us/politics/04margins_graphic.html?_r=0

http://www.elecdem.eu/media/universityofexeter/elecdem/pdfs/budapestwkspapril2010/readingforbudapest/JackmanVavreckJEPOP.pdf

The most likely outcome is Hillary winning every state. Schweitzer's best bet would be states where he has a regional advantage, or where younger voters and white men are a large chunk of the primary vote.

[⛄]

Ignoring the momentum factor, this is how I could see it if everyone voted simultaneously.

Lol. Hacks!

[⛄]

It depends on if a state holds a primary or a caucus and it depends on when a state hold its primary.

If all primaries were hold on the same day, and if the 2008 caucus states held caucuses in 2016, too, then the map would like like this:

I am absolutely not sure about Hawaii.
South Dakota would vote for Clinton because it's a primary state.