Pennsylvania

[Jake]

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What makes you think Luzerne will flip by 2012?  I also think Carbon will flip back in 2008.  Good call on Monroe though.

Just a feel thing.  Luzerne Dems are as bad as Montco Republicans are, and hopefully, they won't get their act together anytime soon.  Also, suburbs are growing in the area, and they are becoming increasingly Republican in places like Pittston, Clarks Summit, etc. 

[TeePee4Prez]

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What makes you think Luzerne will flip by 2012?  I also think Carbon will flip back in 2008.  Good call on Monroe though.

Just a feel thing.  Luzerne Dems are as bad as Montco Republicans are, and hopefully, they won't get their act together anytime soon.  Also, suburbs are growing in the area, and they are becoming increasingly Republican in places like Pittston, Clarks Summit, etc. 

IIRC, I think Clarks Summit's in Lackawanna county which will NEVER flip.

[TeePee4Prez]

As for the Luzerne Dems, i don't know what's goign on there.  the Montco GOP is looking at an inevitable funeral no matter how organized or with it they are.  The county is incredibly liberal and will trend ever more liberal.  The 18-30 population in that county is ridiculously liberal.  Think I'm joking, I've been in college classes with some of these kids.  A fair number actually think Mumia should be LET GO.  As liberal as I am on crime, even I have limits.

[Jake]

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What makes you think Luzerne will flip by 2012?  I also think Carbon will flip back in 2008.  Good call on Monroe though.

Just a feel thing.  Luzerne Dems are as bad as Montco Republicans are, and hopefully, they won't get their act together anytime soon.  Also, suburbs are growing in the area, and they are becoming increasingly Republican in places like Pittston, Clarks Summit, etc. 

IIRC, I think Clarks Summit's in Lackawanna county which will NEVER flip.

No, no matter what, Lackawanna won't ever flip.  Maybe when Allegheny does 50 years from now.

[TeePee4Prez]

My take on this region by region:

Southeast

Philadelphia voted over 80% Democratic and unless John McCain is on a ticket which will at best turn a large part of Northeast Philly and make it 65%, Philadelphia will continue to vote over 80% Democratic especially if we get a competent Democratic mayor.  The suburban counties of Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks will continue to trend drastically more Democratic.  As of now, all of these counties have heavy GOP registration, but Montgomery and Bucks will flip by the end of this decade and Chester will have enough plus the RINOs to carry for Dems in the future.

Overall: Strong Democratic trend

Northeast Pennsylvania/Pocono/Lehigh Valley

This is where New York and Philadelphian exurbanization collides with coal mining and old steel country.  I see a strong Democratic trend in the eastern parts of this region especially in Monroe and Pike Counties.  The Lehigh Valley could be enigmatic because of the collision with traditional social conservatism/new professionalism and the possibilty this area coudl go the way of Montgomery County with liberal suburbanites.  The Upper Susquehanna/Lackawanna Valley could be interesting as well.

Overall: Lean Democratic trend, will vary greatly and offset by GOP trends in Lehigh Valley.

South Central Pennsylvania

The Baltimore-DC corridor may extend into this region.  While this may be gradual, it will nonetheless dilute the strong GOP numbers out of Lancaster and York counties.  However, there is a very strong fundamentalist movement in this region.  Will stay GOP, but margins will not be as astronomical.

Overall: Slight Dem trend, but will stay strong GOP. 

814 area code

I'll take soulty's word on Erie metro. Rest of area is not worth mentioning.  No wonder this area code hasn't been split or overlayed since 1951.  I'll concede this to soulty to argue.

Southwestern Pennsylvania

Uhh, I'll have to/hate to admit the Democrats are falling like a deck of cards in this area.  Losing State Sen. Alan Kukovich was bullsh**t the way he left, but nonetheless people voted him out.  20 years ago, it was unfathomable that people like Melissa Hart or Rick Santorum could be elected ehre, but guess what it happened and it was no accident.  Democrats are keeping Allegheny County for sure, will likely lose Beaver and Washington, and Fayette will be a fierce hold for us.  Soulty is not wrong on saying thsi area is getting more professional and industry is dying.  One thing I'm not getting is that unlike other areas where this economci trend is taking place, the Democrats are holding due to the replacement of the youth adopting socially liberal values.  Not happening here for some reason.

Overall:  One of the strongest GOP shifts in the nation.

Pennsylvania overall

The line of demarcation is roughly Interstate 81.  East of there will trend Democratic, west of there GOP.  East of I-81 has more population so i'm predicting a slight Dem trend in the future. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Flyers: hate to spoil the party 'an all but Bucks county was actually closer in 2004 than 2000.
It's been very close every election since 1992 (and in 1976 interestingly enough).

[Keystone Phil]

Flyers: hate to spoil the party 'an all but Bucks county was actually closer in 2004 than 2000.
It's been very close every election since 1992 (and in 1976 interestingly enough).

We keep telling him that Bucks has awhile until it's a good spot for the Dems. He doesn't want to listen.

[TeePee4Prez]

Flyers: hate to spoil the party 'an all but Bucks county was actually closer in 2004 than 2000.
It's been very close every election since 1992 (and in 1976 interestingly enough).

Never mind you're right.  However 2000 was a good year for the Dems there.  The other counties I am right though.  Chester shifted dramatically Democratic and will soon flip.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Flyers: hate to spoil the party 'an all but Bucks county was actually closer in 2004 than 2000.
It's been very close every election since 1992 (and in 1976 interestingly enough).

Never mind you're right.  However 2000 was a good year for the Dems there.  The other counties I am right though.  Chester shifted dramatically Democratic and will soon flip.

I think Chester may have been to do with the Nick Berg thing actually

[TeePee4Prez]

Flyers: hate to spoil the party 'an all but Bucks county was actually closer in 2004 than 2000.
It's been very close every election since 1992 (and in 1976 interestingly enough).

Never mind you're right.  However 2000 was a good year for the Dems there.  The other counties I am right though.  Chester shifted dramatically Democratic and will soon flip.

I think Chester may have been to do with the Nick Berg thing actually

It's a socially left area, but has a GOP establishment.  The rural south and west of that county voted for Bush, not really the suburban areas as much.  Bucks still had less of a Bush shift than the national average.  I was surprised at that.

[nclib]

                                 2000                2004                Swing
Florida                  Bush +0.01%  Bush +5.01%   Bush +5.00%
New Mexico          Gore +0.06%  Bush +0.79%   Bush +0.85%
Wisconsin             Gore +0.22%  Kerry +0.38%  Kerry +0.16%
Iowa                     Gore +0.32%  Bush +0.67%  Bush  +1.09%
Oregon                 Gore +0.44%  Kerry +4.16%  Kerry +3.72%
New Hampshire    Bush +1.27%  Kerry +1.37%  Kerry +2.64%
Minnesota             Gore +2.41%  Kerry +3.48%  Kerry +1.07% 
Ohio                      Bush +3.51%  Bush +2.10%  Kerry  +1.41%
Nevada                 Bush +3.54%  Bush +2.59%   Kerry  +0.95%
Pennsylvania         Gore +4.17%  Kerry +2.50%  Bush  +1.67%

It is interesting that of the 10 closest states in 2000, only Florida swung to Bush above the national average.

Good idea, I'm off to do that

I don't think it would reflect that if you divided the 2000 Nader votes up.

I'd be interested in seeing that, although the closer states in 2000 would likely have had a smaller Nader result.

[J. J.]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92.  

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast.  

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

[Smash255]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

The NYC burbs are very much the same (Long Island and Westchester especially).  Nassau, Suffolk & Westchester were solidly Republican for a long time.  Now are Democrat, last time GOP won Suffolk in a Presidential race was 92 by a pt, & 88 was the last time in Nassau & Westchester.  96 & 2000 all showed double digit wins in all 3 counties (including about 20 in Nassau & Westchester in both 96 & 2000).  2004 Westchester was still double digits, Nassau & Suffolk were a bit closer, but that had a lot to do with 9/11 (all 3 areas continue a trend Democratic locally)

[J. J.]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

[Smash255]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

How moderate are those Republicans.  Long Island still has a large amount of Republicans at the State Senate level (Congressman are mainly Dem, County Execs are Dem, County Legislature in Nassau is Dem, still GOP in Suffolk, but trending Dem)  but most of the GOP at the state level are fairly moderate (along the lines of Specter, Chafee, Giuliani, Collins).  Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

[Keystone Phil]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

[Smash255]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

Come on now Phil, Santorum is very conservative.  Is he Tom COburn?  No, but that doesn't mean he isn't very conservative.  Any with your RINO's comments I assume you mean similar to Specter (moderate to liberal Republicans),  The Republicans on the local level on Long Island tend to be in the same mold

[Keystone Phil]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

Come on now Phil, Santorum is very conservative.  Is he Tom COburn?  No, but that doesn't mean he isn't very conservative.  Any with your RINO's comments I assume you mean similar to Specter (moderate to liberal Republicans),  The Republicans on the local level on Long Island tend to be in the same mold

I'm not getting into the Santorum argument. I have my belief and I'm sticking to it. The same situation with you. As for local Republican officials in Montco, yes, most would be Specter Republicans.

[TeePee4Prez]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

Come on now Phil, Santorum is very conservative.  Is he Tom COburn?  No, but that doesn't mean he isn't very conservative.  Any with your RINO's comments I assume you mean similar to Specter (moderate to liberal Republicans),  The Republicans on the local level on Long Island tend to be in the same mold

I'm not getting into the Santorum argument. I have my belief and I'm sticking to it. The same situation with you. As for local Republican officials in Montco, yes, most would be Specter Republicans.

To you everyone to the left of Santorum is a RINO.

[Keystone Phil]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

Come on now Phil, Santorum is very conservative.  Is he Tom COburn?  No, but that doesn't mean he isn't very conservative.  Any with your RINO's comments I assume you mean similar to Specter (moderate to liberal Republicans),  The Republicans on the local level on Long Island tend to be in the same mold

I'm not getting into the Santorum argument. I have my belief and I'm sticking to it. The same situation with you. As for local Republican officials in Montco, yes, most would be Specter Republicans.

To you everyone to the left of Santorum is a RINO.

I never held that opinion and I don't think anyone does. Poor attempt at a joke.

[danwxman]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

[True Democrat]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

The trends in the Southwest was kind of odd.  They became Reagan Democrats after Reagan left office, if that's possible.

[J. J.]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

Wrong!

Spector, for example, carried the region in 86 and 92.  Thornburgh lost Westmoreland, by less than 4,800 votes in 1982 (the county was 2 to 1 Democrat at the time), Reagan lost it two years late by less than 10,000 votes (those were two I worked on then).  In 1980, Reagan lost Westmoreland by 5,500 votes, less than 4%; he lost Allegheny by 26,000 votes, less than 5% (registration was also 2 to 1 D).

In 1978, 21st CD was won by Democrat Bailey over Republican Bob Miller by less than 8,000 votes (about 5%).

[danwxman]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

Wrong!

Spector, for example, carried the region in 86 and 92.  Thornburgh lost Westmoreland, by less than 4,800 votes in 1982 (the county was 2 to 1 Democrat at the time), Reagan lost it two years late by less than 10,000 votes (those were two I worked on then).  In 1980, Reagan lost Westmoreland by 5,500 votes, less than 4%; he lost Allegheny by 26,000 votes, less than 5% (registration was also 2 to 1 D).

In 1978, 21st CD was won by Democrat Bailey over Republican Bob Miller by less than 8,000 votes (about 5%).

You implied in your first post then Reagan carried the Southwest when it was quite the opposite. He still lost Allegheny and Westmoreland twice, and Clinton won both twice. Southwestern Pennsylvania was one of the most strongly anti-Reagan areas of the country.

But getting off Presidential politics...you say Spector was able to carry the Southwest in '86 and '92. Well, he lost Allegheny, Fayette and Beaver to Hoeffel in 2004!

[J. J.]

In the late 70's the Southwest began to "swing" to the GOP.  It was basically conservative Democrats.  These were most of the reasons you saw Thornburgh winning,  78 and 82, Reagan winning 80 and 84; and Spector winning in 86 and 92. 

At the same the counties bordering on Phila were strongly Republican; even including Phila, Republicans won the Southeast.  Scranton actually won this region in 86.  It was really 92 when the "Phila 'burds" began going Democrat.  Even in 94, Ridge lost the Southeast. 

The key for a GOP victory is going to be stopping the "slump" in the Southeast or really destroying the Democrat in the Southwest.  In terms of Governor's race, Swann had the better chance of doing that.

Wrong. The Southwest's GOP trend is rather recent. They are NOT Reagan Democrats...the Southwest voted heavily against Reagan in '80 and '84.

Wrong!

Spector, for example, carried the region in 86 and 92.  Thornburgh lost Westmoreland, by less than 4,800 votes in 1982 (the county was 2 to 1 Democrat at the time), Reagan lost it two years late by less than 10,000 votes (those were two I worked on then).  In 1980, Reagan lost Westmoreland by 5,500 votes, less than 4%; he lost Allegheny by 26,000 votes, less than 5% (registration was also 2 to 1 D).

In 1978, 21st CD was won by Democrat Bailey over Republican Bob Miller by less than 8,000 votes (about 5%).

You implied in your first post then Reagan carried the Southwest when it was quite the opposite. He still lost Allegheny and Westmoreland twice, and Clinton won both twice. Southwestern Pennsylvania was one of the most strongly anti-Reagan areas of the country.

But getting off Presidential politics...you say Spector was able to carry the Southwest in '86 and '92. Well, he lost Allegheny, Fayette and Beaver to Hoeffel in 2004!

I said there was a "Swing" to the GOP in statewide elections.  Clinton won Westmoreland by less than 2000 vote, the point is that about between 35% to 45% of the Democrats (not taking into account turnout differention)* voted for the Republican.  The thing is, if that is the only factor, PA would be a Repubican State.  The "swing" has been a long term trend, occuring fairly strongly since at least 1980; though GOP doesn't come out ahead iin the SW, they had made it so close that it offset the Democratic registration majority.

I looked at the 1992 Senate race, and out of the SW**, Spector actually had a plurality of 911 votes.

*Republicans tend to turn out higher in general elections, so their percentage is higher.  That is part of it, but it doesn't explain all of it.

**All counties bordering Washington, Beaver, and Allegheny Counties, inclusive.