Pennsylvania

[Jake]

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How embarassing, he only gained 1.67%
                                 2000                2004                Swing
Florida                  Bush +0.01%  Bush +5.01%   Bush +5.00%
New Mexico          Gore +0.06%  Bush +0.79%   Bush +0.85%
Wisconsin             Gore +0.22%  Kerry +0.38%  Kerry +0.16%
Iowa                     Gore +0.32%  Bush +0.67%  Bush  +1.09%
Oregon                 Gore +0.44%  Kerry +4.16%  Kerry +3.72%
New Hampshire    Bush +1.27%  Kerry +1.37%  Kerry +2.64%
Minnesota             Gore +2.41%  Kerry +3.48%  Kerry +1.07% 
Ohio                      Bush +3.51%  Bush +2.10%  Kerry  +1.41%
Nevada                 Bush +3.54%  Bush +2.59%   Kerry  +0.95%
Pennsylvania         Gore +4.17%  Kerry +2.50%  Bush  +1.67%

[danwxman]

So Bush lost PA embarrassingly? I guess that means Kerry got his ass handed to him in Ohio then.

Not really...Florida is the embarassment for Kerry.

[Keystone Phil]

So Bush lost PA embarrassingly? I guess that means Kerry got his ass handed to him in Ohio then.

Not really...Florida is the embarassment for Kerry.

But Kerry focused so much on Ohio and lost by 2 points. That's just as "embarrassing" as Bush losing PA.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Seeing that Pennsylvanians are usually very partisan when it comes to Presidential elections, it wasn't an embarrassing loss.

One of these days I'll get around to making a map comparing party registration in PA counties to the Bush/Kerry numbers. The correlation is much lower your arguments make it seem.

Here's three to think about for now: Montgomery, Westmoreland, Greene

and do not just reply saying I know nothing about the state's politics and leave it atthat when I am simply talking about statistics.

[Keystone Phil]

Seeing that Pennsylvanians are usually very partisan when it comes to Presidential elections, it wasn't an embarrassing loss.

One of these days I'll get around to making a map comparing party registration in PA counties to the Bush/Kerry numbers. The correlation is much lower your arguments make it seem.

Here's three to think about for now: Montgomery, Westmoreland, Greene

and do not just reply saying I know nothing about the state's politics and leave it atthat when I am simply talking about statistics.

Montco is a county with a significant spike in Dem registrations and RINOville, PA.

Westemoreland and Greene are socially Dem areas and went against the trend. What can I say?

When you look at a state that elected Santorum by about 7 points in 2000 yet went for Gore by about 4-5 points, you have to admit that there is partisanship when it comes to Presidential elections.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not saying there's no partisanship, that's true in every state, I'm just saying you can't say that alone is why Gore and Kerry won it and it's really a very conservaitve state. There's also some county in central PA somewhere that has like a 1% GOP registration advantage that Bush won by about 20 points.

What I want to know is why a person who is basically identical to Rick Santorum ideology-wise would register as a Democrat and hten vote for Kerry on account of that alone.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not saying there's no partisanship, that's true in every state, I'm just saying you can't say that alone is why Gore and Kerry won it and it's really a very conservaitve state. There's also some county in central PA somewhere that has like a 1% GOP registration advantage that Bush won by about 20 points.

What I want to know is why a person who is basically identical to Rick Santorum ideology-wise would register as a Democrat and hten vote for Kerry on account of that alone.

Once again, you're putting words in my mouth. (You really have to stop that. It only makes you look bad.) Pennsylvania is not a very conservative state. Socially conservative, yes. Centrist on economics.

Democrats have a majority in registration here. Many have no problem voting for a Republican for State Rep., State Sen., Congressman, etc. but when the Presidential election rolls around, they're more likely to stick with their party. Now you ask why this is. Here's what I have to say (and have said to you about twenty times in the past): I don't know.

These people have been registered Democrats for awhile but are rather conservative. For whatever reason, they decide to vote for a liberal Democrat in Presidential elections. You can ask them for their reasoning.

[PADem]

Also, what kind of candidate would have to run for the republicans to win the state?

Santorum 

Like Al said, Pennsylvanians like to split their ticket.

Santorum ..... Will all due respect Phil, I think you are wrong...

Rick may do well out west, but give the Democrats a moderate Bayh/Warner nominee and I think that they would win vs Rick but about the same margin as Kerry...

I would say.....

GOP                        DEM                   Winner
Santorum               Bayh                   Bayh
Santorum               Warner               Warner
Santorum               Gore                   Santorum
Santorum               Kerry                  Santorum

[Keystone Phil]

Also, what kind of candidate would have to run for the republicans to win the state?

Santorum 

Like Al said, Pennsylvanians like to split their ticket.

Santorum ..... Will all due respect Phil, I think you are wrong...

Rick may do well out west, but give the Democrats a moderate Bayh/Warner nominee and I think that they would win vs Rick but about the same margin as Kerry...

I would say.....

GOP                        DEM                   Winner
Santorum               Bayh                   Bayh
Santorum               Warner               Warner
Santorum               Gore                   Santorum
Santorum               Kerry                  Santorum

I think Bayh or Warner could put up a very strong fight in PA against Santorum but I think he could win it. Not by much but still win the state.

[12th Doctor]

Westmoreland and Greene have changed a lot in just the past 10 years, as has all of western, PA.  I know I have said this a million times, but the "New Deal Die-off" is causing the west to shift dramatically towards the GOP.  I predict that, all things being equal, in 2008, all western, PA counties will go Republican, except Erie and Alleghany.

[danwxman]

Westmoreland and Greene have changed a lot in just the past 10 years, as has all of western, PA.  I know I have said this a million times, but the "New Deal Die-off" is causing the west to shift dramatically towards the GOP.  I predict that, all things being equal, in 2008, all western, PA counties will go Republican, except Erie and Alleghany.

Fayette.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Had the MSM ACCURATELY  reported on the strength of the economy rather that parrot the DNC's talking points, all of the close  Blue states (including PA) would have ended up in the Bush column

Yeah, net loss of jobs, stock market down, and a $10 trillion swing in projected cumulative deficits for this decade are all such great economic news.

[12th Doctor]

Westmoreland and Greene have changed a lot in just the past 10 years, as has all of western, PA.  I know I have said this a million times, but the "New Deal Die-off" is causing the west to shift dramatically towards the GOP.  I predict that, all things being equal, in 2008, all western, PA counties will go Republican, except Erie and Alleghany.

Fayette.

True.  Fayette will likely remain in the Dem column, but definatly not after 2012.  Kerry only got 53% there.

Alleghany will also likely become more Republican freindly, though I would not be so foolish as to predict it going Republican any time in the next 30 years, unless there is some large shift in the American political climate.

Erie is acctually trending Dermocrat, and has been for sometime, though that trend is small.  The terrible economic climate up hear and the droves of minorities moving here from places like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo are making it hard to elect Republicans on a local level, let alone nationally.

[Jake]

PA in the next two elections.

[True Democrat]

PA in the next two elections.

This would basically keep the status quo.  PA might trend a little Republican, but the Philadelphia suburbs would keep the SW in check.

[moderate_devil_dog]

What type of voters need to be targeted by the GOP to try and shift some votes away from the dem. in the Philly subs?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah. You're all playing with trends. Not a good idea, but you'll learn.

[Jake]

Ah. You're all playing with trends. Not a good idea, but you'll learn.

Yup, but some trends are well established, like the SE RINO's voting Democrat.  Some, like Luzerne going GOP, are just guesses on my part.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah. You're all playing with trends. Not a good idea, but you'll learn.

Yup, but some trends are well established, like the SE RINO's voting Democrat.  Some, like Luzerne going GOP, are just guesses on my part.

The only trends that you can ever be sure of are ones as a result of large demographic changes (almost always growth). Most places don't trend so much as react to different candidates in different ways.

This sort of stuff can be interesting but should always come with a big health warning

[12th Doctor]

Ah. You're all playing with trends. Not a good idea, but you'll learn.

While trends are not always accurate, they do tell you something about the current political climate and thus, they tell you what you can do to change it to your advantage.

Though trends don't reflect sure things, they tell you what will happen if you do not alter the status quo.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though trends don't reflect sure things, they tell you what will happen if you do not alter the status quo.

Although seeing as it takes a hell of an effort to make sure the status quo stays the same over a four year period... it's true this sort of thing can be interesting although I'd be careful of reading much into it.

For fun, work from PA in 1968, 1980 and 1996

[nclib]

                                 2000                2004                Swing
Florida                  Bush +0.01%  Bush +5.01%   Bush +5.00%
New Mexico          Gore +0.06%  Bush +0.79%   Bush +0.85%
Wisconsin             Gore +0.22%  Kerry +0.38%  Kerry +0.16%
Iowa                     Gore +0.32%  Bush +0.67%  Bush  +1.09%
Oregon                 Gore +0.44%  Kerry +4.16%  Kerry +3.72%
New Hampshire    Bush +1.27%  Kerry +1.37%  Kerry +2.64%
Minnesota             Gore +2.41%  Kerry +3.48%  Kerry +1.07% 
Ohio                      Bush +3.51%  Bush +2.10%  Kerry  +1.41%
Nevada                 Bush +3.54%  Bush +2.59%   Kerry  +0.95%
Pennsylvania         Gore +4.17%  Kerry +2.50%  Bush  +1.67%

It is interesting that of the 10 closest states in 2000, only Florida swung to Bush above the national average.

[True Democrat]

                                 2000                2004                Swing
Florida                  Bush +0.01%  Bush +5.01%   Bush +5.00%
New Mexico          Gore +0.06%  Bush +0.79%   Bush +0.85%
Wisconsin             Gore +0.22%  Kerry +0.38%  Kerry +0.16%
Iowa                     Gore +0.32%  Bush +0.67%  Bush  +1.09%
Oregon                 Gore +0.44%  Kerry +4.16%  Kerry +3.72%
New Hampshire    Bush +1.27%  Kerry +1.37%  Kerry +2.64%
Minnesota             Gore +2.41%  Kerry +3.48%  Kerry +1.07% 
Ohio                      Bush +3.51%  Bush +2.10%  Kerry  +1.41%
Nevada                 Bush +3.54%  Bush +2.59%   Kerry  +0.95%
Pennsylvania         Gore +4.17%  Kerry +2.50%  Bush  +1.67%

It is interesting that of the 10 closest states in 2000, only Florida swung to Bush above the national average.

I don't think it would reflect that if you divided the 2000 Nader votes up.

[Jake]

                                 2000                2004                Swing
Florida                  Bush +0.01%  Bush +5.01%   Bush +5.00%
New Mexico          Gore +0.06%  Bush +0.79%   Bush +0.85%
Wisconsin             Gore +0.22%  Kerry +0.38%  Kerry +0.16%
Iowa                     Gore +0.32%  Bush +0.67%  Bush  +1.09%
Oregon                 Gore +0.44%  Kerry +4.16%  Kerry +3.72%
New Hampshire    Bush +1.27%  Kerry +1.37%  Kerry +2.64%
Minnesota             Gore +2.41%  Kerry +3.48%  Kerry +1.07% 
Ohio                      Bush +3.51%  Bush +2.10%  Kerry  +1.41%
Nevada                 Bush +3.54%  Bush +2.59%   Kerry  +0.95%
Pennsylvania         Gore +4.17%  Kerry +2.50%  Bush  +1.67%

It is interesting that of the 10 closest states in 2000, only Florida swung to Bush above the national average.

Good idea, I'm off to do that

I don't think it would reflect that if you divided the 2000 Nader votes up.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA in the next two elections.

What makes you think Luzerne will flip by 2012?  I also think Carbon will flip back in 2008.  Good call on Monroe though.