2006 Georgia Governor's Race

[Q]

Note: Previous posts regarding this race can be found in the 2006 Governor Races thread, which was becoming crowded:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=13517.0


It's looking like the GOP isn't too keen on Gov. Sonny Perdue.

The following article is from today's Atlanta Journal-Constitution Political Insider column:

Even governors can sometimes use a summer job. This might be Sonny's in '06

Six months ago, a group of anonymous Republicans were talking to Mac Collins, the former congressman and U.S. Senate candidate, about running against Gov. Sonny Perdue in the '06 Republican primary.

Collins is no longer interested.

So now they — and some others — are talking to Bill Byrne, the former Cobb County commission chairman and one of Perdue's opponents in '02.

Byrne says he was first approached last December. "I was lukewarm about it. I said I'd had my shot," he said Tuesday.

But the meetings have continued — the last one was two weeks ago. Byrne said he probably will wait until the first of June to make a decision.

A Byrne campaign wouldn't have to be successful to pose a threat to Perdue. For that reason, Byrne understands that a decision to go ahead would mean a campaign with little cash and much scorn from the state GOP's establishment.

"I'd make that decision knowing clearly that money and politics are joined at the hip," said Byrne, who now earns a living as a landscape architect.

Byrne has been a constant critic of Perdue, but says this isn't a case of sour grapes.

He calculates that no matter which Democrat wins the gubernatorial nomination — Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor of Albany or Secretary of State Cathy Cox of Bainbridge — Perdue's advantage in rural Georgia will be neutralized.

"Taylor could take credit for any accomplishment Perdue brings forward and distance himself from all the embarrassments," Byrne wrote in one analysis he's sent to a core of supporters.

Flaggers, teachers, and state employees won't be on the side of the incumbent governor, he figured.

Byrne said he's also working into his equation some grassroots discontent that he's sensing among Republicans over the current legislative session. Legislation expanding the power and secrecy of government, such as S.B. 5 and H.B. 218, haven't gone over well.

But even more offensive to hardcores, he said, is the $1 billion increase in spending that the Republican-controlled General Assembly is about to approve.

[No more McShame]

Is Perdue some kind of f up or something?

[Q]

Is Perdue some kind of f up or something?

Well, I wouldn't say that, but Purdue has gotten a whole lot of people mad at him.

He's tried to track between conservative and moderate, and in the process he's basically irritated both factions of his party.

The neo-Confederates who were largely responsible for his upset election in 2002 are now furious with him for hardly lifting a finger to bring the state flag up for another public referendum.  The teachers unions, which supported him last time, have found Purdue to be even less on their side than previous Governor Roy Barnes was.

It was only a matter of time before discussions of a primary challenge arose.  Because while Purdue has alienated his bases of support, they still probably wouldn't vote for his Dem oponent anyway.

[King]

BTW, it definately IS art.

[Q]

Poll finds Perdue, Cox dead even in race for governor

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published 04/27/05

As fund-raising begins in earnest for the 2006 governor's race, a new poll suggests Secretary of State Cathy Cox starts with a stronger chance of ousting Gov. Sonny Perdue than does her Democratic rival, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor.

In a Zogby International poll for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Cox was dead even with Perdue, Georgia's first Republican governor since Reconstruction. Perdue, meanwhile, was 13 percentage points ahead of Taylor in a head-to-head matchup.

The poll gave Cox a lead over Taylor among respondents who identified themselves as Democrats. Those two are expected to face off in the Democratic primary. Perdue so far has no announced Republican opposition. The poll of 501 likely voters was conducted Thursday and Friday.

The poll gives Perdue reason to pause, as well as to crow.

Just under half of respondents think the state is headed in the right direction. Political experts usually say incumbents need that figure to be above 50 percent — or at least heading up — to ensure re-election. In addition, about 48 percent think Perdue is doing a good or excellent job. Again, campaign strategists like to see that number over 50 percent.

However, 68 percent of poll participants said they had a favorable impression of Perdue, who has come across as a friendly everyman during his first 2 1/2 years in office, making up for legislative setbacks with a common touch.

Matt Towery, an Atlanta political strategist and former Republican legislator, said it is not unusual for poll respondents to give political figures higher personal approval ratings than job assessments.

"When you start asking about job approval, you get them [respondents] to think more," he said.

Cox also had a high approval rating, 62 percent, while 47 percent had a favorable impression of Taylor.

The promising numbers could help Cox make up some of the fund-raising ground she has ceded to Taylor, who raised $1.3 million in the final nine months of 2004, while Cox didn't start collecting money until this year.

"This will really produce a new conventional wisdom about the Democrat primary," Emory University political scientist Merle Black said of the AJC poll.

Margaret Sanders, 41, of Norcross, a poll respondent who works in the finance department at Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, said she leaned toward Cox even though she thought the state was heading, slowly, in the right direction.

"I think maybe because she's a woman, she will tackle education and family issues," said Sanders, who added that she thought Perdue had done a good job. "Maybe it's that Southern blood, but I'm a Democrat."

Freddy Johnson, 68, a retiree from suburban Augusta, told pollsters he supported Perdue.

"I think he has tried to get the economy going in the right direction," Johnson said. "I know he does not go for abortion on demand. I know he is not for the homosexual agenda."

While Cox only recently began raising money, her face probably was seen more on TV last year than Perdue's or Taylor's because of a media blitz targeting investor fraud that her office ran for several months. The ads were paid for by the private Investor Protection Trust. Critics charged that she used the money to further her political ambitions.

Morton Brilliant, Cox's campaign manager, said of the poll: "It's very early, but already it looks like the numbers bear out what we hear, that folks like Cathy's message of change. Folks have been watching Perdue and Taylor running things the past few years, and they are not happy with what they're doing."

Rick Dent, a consultant for Taylor's campaign, responded: "This poll is just another in a long series of polls that show Sonny Perdue is extremely vulnerable to our Democratic candidates. And we believe in the next 18 months, Mark Taylor's record of protecting HOPE scholarships, creating jobs and expanding family health care, and his ability to get things done, will prevail over both Cox and Perdue."

Nick Ayers, who runs Perdue's re-election campaign, said he expected a close race between the incumbent and the Democratic nominee. But he found good news in Perdue's popularity numbers.

"Georgians overwhelmingly support Sonny because he's conservative, principled and has a mainstream agenda for the state," Ayers said. "Mark and Cathy have both enjoyed good poll numbers in the past, but now they'll have to answer tough questions about how they stand on issues like gay marriage and the voter ID bill."

Black, the Emory expert, said the fact that fewer than half of the respondents say Perdue is doing a good or excellent job provides Democrats with reason for hope.

"If he were running with two-thirds of people saying he is doing a good job, it would look bleak for Democrats," he said.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The political sun has set for Perdue

[Joe Biden 2020]

Looks like Perdue will be a former governor come January 2007.

[Frodo]

given the increasingly Republican tilt of the state not only at the national level, but also at the state and local levels, Perdue would probably scrape through in the end -as with Bob Riley in Alabama.  it is a deep South state -i can't see any Democrat who is not already an incumbent winning the governor's mansion of any state in the Deep South.  

[Joe Biden 2020]

given the increasingly Republican tilt of the state not only at the national level, but also at the state and local levels, Perdue would probably scrape through in the end -as with Bob Riley in Alabama.  it is a deep South state -i can't see any Democrat who is not already an incumbent winning the governor's mansion of any state in the Deep South. 

unless he gets ousted by another Republican in the primaries.

[Q]

A Purdue-Cox race would be a tossup, plain and simple.

And Ralph Reed, with the new ethics allegations against him, running for Lt. Gov. shouldn't help much.