Which state was the biggest surprise in the 2012 election?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I had Florida as a <1% Obama win for a long time, dating back to August 2012.  Mason-Dixon's ridiculous Romney +7 poll did nothing to change that.

The only surprise to me was Ohio.  I didn't think it was going to be all that close, and Obama didn't even win it by 3%.  Not only that, but the area of the state that saw a swing to Obama, the South Central part, included several counties that didn't see much positive job growth at all; and more industrial areas in the Northeast of the state that saw good job growth after the bailout, mainly to the west of Cleveland, still saw a modest swing to Romney that mirrored the overall swing of 1% or so to the Republican side.  I would've guessed a result of around 52-46 Obama on election night.  Never materialized. 

As for minor surprises.

Oregon and New Mexico were more modest Obama victories than I thought they would be, considering Romney didn't even begin to contest them.

Louisiana's swing to Obama was actually quite stunning.  I had this as easily moving into >60% Romney. 

I didn't think the Dakotas would swing away from Obama quite that hard.