Adding D.C. to Virginia

[henster]

How would that change things? I'd expect Virginia to become a Safe Dem state instantly.

[Beet]

It'd make managing WMATA metro easier. But it makes more sense to add D.C. to Maryland.

[henster]

It'd make managing WMATA metro easier. But it makes more sense to add D.C. to Maryland.

It makes more sense politically for Democrats to add D.C. to Virginia because it would be far easier to win the state with D.C. voting 90% Dem that's like 300,000 new voters for them.

[Del Tachi]

VA would flip in 1992 and 1996.  Bush still wins in 2000 and 2004. 

[ElectionsGuy]

adding it to Virginia I get:

Obama: 2,238,890 (54.0%)
Romney: 1,843,903 (44.5%)
Others: 65,460 (1.6%)

Compared to the original Virginia result:

Obama: 1,971,820 (51.2%)
Romney: 1,822,522 (47.3%)
Others: 60,147 (1.6%)

So in conclusion it would vote more like Michigan, which isn't completely safe, but it would definitely help secure many democratic victories to come.

[henster]

adding it to Virginia I get:

Obama: 2,238,890 (54.0%)
Romney: 1,843,903 (44.5%)
Others: 65,460 (1.6%)

Compared to the original Virginia result:

Obama: 1,971,820 (51.2%)
Romney: 1,822,522 (47.3%)
Others: 60,147 (1.6%)

So in conclusion it would vote more like Michigan, which isn't completely safe, but it would definitely help secure many democratic victories to come.

So D.C. would be basically Virginia's Detroit politically speaking. It would certainty change things in the General Assembly Dems would probably control both chambers. 

[ElectionsGuy]

2008:

Obama: 2,205,332 (55.3%)
McCain: 1,742,372 (43.7%)
Others: 41,409 (1.0%)

Original result:

Obama: 1,959,532 (52.6%)
McCain: 1,725,005 (46.3%)
Others: 38,723 (1.0%)

2004:

Bush: 1,738,215 (50.7%)
Kerry: 1,657,712 (48.4%)
Others: 30,026 (0.9%)

Original result:

Bush: 1,716,959 (53.7%)
Kerry: 1,454,742 (45.5%)
Others: 26,666 (0.8%)

2000:

Bush: 1,455,563 (49.5%)
Gore: 1,389,213 (47.2%)
Others: 96,565 (3.3%)

Original result:

Bush: 1,437,490 (52.5%)
Gore: 1,217,290 (44.4%)
Others: 84,667 (3.1%)

So D.C. would be basically Virginia's Detroit politically speaking. It would certainty change things in the General Assembly Dems would probably control both chambers.  

Yes, although It probably wouldn't be enough to change the general assembly as it is. But it would certainly make the state bluer as DC is a powerful voting bloc.

[DINGO Joe]

Should add it to WV (don't care that they aren't contiguous). It would be like a wacky sitcom.

[Del Tachi]

Adding D.C. to Virginia may actually hurt VA Dems in the long-run, as having a Black urban political machine holding considerable sway in state politics would likely turn suburban NOVAites and other down-staters off to the Democrats.

[henster]

Adding D.C. to Virginia may actually hurt VA Dems in the long-run, as having a Black urban political machine holding considerable sway in state politics would likely turn suburban NOVAites and other down-staters off to the Democrats.

Basically Richmond and Norfolk having another won't really make a big difference.

[Del Tachi]

Adding D.C. to Virginia may actually hurt VA Dems in the long-run, as having a Black urban political machine holding considerable sway in state politics would likely turn suburban NOVAites and other down-staters off to the Democrats.

Basically Richmond and Norfolk having another won't really make a big difference.

D.C. Black population is much larger than Richmond or Norfolk though, and D.C. is the Chocolate City remember?  D.C. political prominence would be perceived as a threat on the other "lily-white" side of the Potomac. 

[ElectionsGuy]

Should add it to WV (don't care that they aren't contiguous). It would be like a wacky sitcom.

West Virginia:



DC:



Yeah, anyway the democrats would win West Virginia if DC was added on, even Obama 2012.

[muon2]

Why is this always about what best benefits one party over the other? If the issue is that the citizens of DC lack congressional representation and DC statehood is not an option, the question should be what state would those citizens like to join in order to have congressional representation.

[minionofmidas]

To which they reply there's no reason why statehood should not be an option, and statehood is indeed what they want.

[TDAS04]

It'd make managing WMATA metro easier. But it makes more sense to add D.C. to Maryland.

This.  I going to do a poll on this in individual politics.

[ag]

BTW, you would, probably, have higher turnout in Washington City, VA than that in actual DC - simply due to competitiveness. So, adding the totals, is, probably, somewhat misleading.

[bgwah]

Atlas Forum is so cyclical.

Previous thread, with DC+MD and DC+VA totals back to 1964: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=111523.0

[Peter the Lefty]

Probably safe Dem, though it would make Virginia Dem primary races far more interesting, since actual progressives never have a chance of winning there under the status quo.

[Brittain33]

To which they reply there's no reason why statehood should not be an option, and statehood is indeed what they want.

Yes, given that the main reason statehood is not an option is that it benefits one party if it were.

[muon2]

To which they reply there's no reason why statehood should not be an option, and statehood is indeed what they want.

Yes, given that the main reason statehood is not an option is that it benefits one party if it were.

That's why historically many states were admitted as pairs. The relative balance of power in Congress was an important political goal back to the earliest days of the US and was still true in 1959.

[retromike22]

Actually, I think we should do the opposite. Arlington and Alexandria should be added to DC.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Actually, I think we should do the opposite. Arlington and Alexandria should be added to DC.

Obama would have still won Virginia 52-47 in 2008 with that map.  Who can tell us if he would have won it again in 2012?

[muon2]

Actually, I think we should do the opposite. Arlington and Alexandria should be added to DC.

Obama would have still won Virginia 52-47 in 2008 with that map.  Who can tell us if he would have won it again in 2012?

Yes. Obama had a 149K margin in 2012 in VA. Without Alexandria and Arlington his winning margin would have been just over 70K. You have to take out Fairfax as well to flip the result in VA.